Tag

real GDP growth Archives - Shopfloor

U.S. Economy Grew 2.6 Percent in the Fourth Quarter: Solid Growth in Spending, but Pulled Lower by Net Exports, Inventories

By | Economy, Shopfloor Economics, Shopfloor Main | No Comments

The Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the U.S. economy grew by an annualized 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter, according to preliminary data. This was somewhat lower than the consensus estimate of around 3 percent, and it represented an easing from the 3.1 percent and 3.2 percent gains seen in the second and third quarters, respectively. Overall, the latest report found solid growth in consumer, business and government spending, but headline growth was pulled lower by both net exports and inventory spending. To illustrate the impact of those various components, real GDP growth would have been 4.35 percent absent the drag from net exports and inventories, which subtracted 1.8 percentage points from the top-line growth figure. Personally, I would not be surprised to see the growth rate revised up in the coming weeks.

In 2017, real GDP increased by 2.3 percent, up from 1.5 percent in 2016. Since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has expanded by 2.2 percent on average. Moving forward, we anticipate 3.0 percent growth in 2018—or something close to that, the consensus right now is around 2.7 percent. I continue to believe that there is upward potential in that outlook for next year, especially as firms increase their investments. Passage of comprehensive tax reform and other pro-growth measures should help to stimulate economic activity, hopefully allowing us to reach 3.0 percent annual growth for the first time since 2005. Read More

Real GDP Grew by 3.0 Percent in the Third Quarter

By | Economy, Shopfloor Economics, Shopfloor Main | No Comments

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U.S. economy grew by an annualized 3.0 percent in the third quarter, extending the 3.1 percent gain in the second quarter. This was slightly better than the predicted growth rate of 2.6 percent—a sign that even with the recent hurricanes, the U.S. economy continues to expand at a decent clip. Strength in consumer and business spending, including inventories, and net exports boosted the third-quarter data. For 2017 as a whole, I am predicting real GDP growth of 2.3 percent, with 3.0 percent growth for the current fourth quarter. This is a slight improvement from the 2.1 percent average growth rate since the Great Recession, but I am also estimating 2.6 percent growth for 2018. In addition, I continue to believe there is upward potential in the forecast, especially for next year and beyond, if pro-growth policies are enacted. Read More

Real GDP Growth in the Second Quarter Upped Slightly to 3.1 Percent

By | Economy, Shopfloor Economics | No Comments

The second revision to real GDP growth for the second quarter changed slightly from its last estimate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis upped its estimate of growth in the U.S. economy in the second quarter from 3.0 percent to 3.1 percent. While there were small tweaks in a few areas, the higher figure mainly corresponded with slightly better spending on inventories.

I continue to anticipate 2.2 percent growth for 2017 as a whole. However, Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria will impact forecasts for the third and fourth quarters. I expect 2.3 percent growth in the third quarter, with weather reducing overall output by at least 0.5 percent in the current quarter. However, fourth-quarter growth will be better than predicted originally as the tremendous damage is repaired in Florida, Texas and the Caribbean. I estimate 3.0 percent growth in the fourth quarter—at least for now.

Read More

Better Consumer Spending and Export Data Revise First Quarter GDP Growth Up to 1.4 Percent

By | Economy, Shopfloor Economics, Shopfloor Main | No Comments

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U.S. economy grew an annualized 1.4 percent in the first quarter in newly revised figures, up from 1.2 percent in its prior estimate. The increase stemmed largely from better consumer spending and export data in this revision. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.1 percent at the annual rate in the first quarter, which was an improvement from the prior estimate of 0.6 percent but still weaker than desired. Durable goods spending declined 1.6 percent in this report, pulled lower by a sharp decrease in motor vehicles and parts. Nonetheless, consumer spending added 0.75 percentage points to headline GDP growth, up from 0.44 percent in the estimate released last month.

At the same time, goods exports increased 10.5 percent at the annual rate, an improvement from the 8.4 percent gain in the prior report. In addition, the decline in goods imports shifted from 4.5 percent to 4.4 percent in this release. As a result, the contribution to GDP growth from net exports rose from 0.13 percent in the earlier estimate to 0.23 percent. After a large drag on growth in the fourth quarter of 2016 from net exports, this was a sign that international activity had stabilized somewhat in the early months of 2017.

Read More

First Quarter Real GDP Revised from 0.7 Percent to 1.2 Percent Growth

By | Economy, Shopfloor Economics, Shopfloor Main | No Comments

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U.S. economy grew 1.2 percent in the first quarter in newly revised figures. This improved slightly from the earlier estimate of 0.7 percent growth, but nonetheless, it continued to represent a slow start to the year. The upward revision stemmed mainly from improved data on consumer and business spending, even as the drag from inventory spending was somewhat larger.

To be fair, we traditionally have a sluggish first quarter followed by a strong rebound in the second quarter. My current forecast is for at least 3.0 percent growth in real GDP in the second quarter, with the economy expanding 2.2 percent for 2017 as a whole. Of course, these estimates might drift higher with passage of more pro-growth policies, especially in terms of the outlook later this year and into 2018.

Read More

Soft Real GDP Growth in the First Quarter

By | Economy, Shopfloor Economics, Shopfloor Main | No Comments

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U.S. economy grew 0.7 percent at the annual rate in the first quarter, starting 2017 off on a soft start as expected. This follows real GDP growth of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter. Weaker consumer and inventory spending in the first quarter could explain the lower figures, with government spending also serving as a drag on the headline number.

To be fair, this is just the first estimate, so there is a chance that future revisions might show better growth, particularly if incoming data for March are better than expected. In addition, we traditionally have a sluggish first quarter followed by a strong rebound in the second quarter. My current forecast is for 2.8 percent growth in real GDP in the second quarter, with the economy expanding 2.1 percent for 2017 as a whole. Of course, these estimates might drift higher with passage of more pro-growth policies, especially in terms of the outlook later this year and into 2018.

Read More

Fourth Quarter Real GDP Growth at 1.9 Percent

By | Economy, Shopfloor Economics, Shopfloor Main | No Comments

The Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the U.S. economy grew 1.9 percent at the annual rate in the fourth quarter in preliminary data. This was slightly less than the consensus estimate for 2.2 percent, and it was slower than the 3.5 percent increase seen in the third quarter. Real GDP growth was buoyed by modest growth in consumer and government spending and by a continuing rebound in business investment, but net exports served as a drag on the headline number. Overall, the U.S. economy expanded 1.6 percent in 2016, down from its 2.2 percent post-recessionary average, and the year was mostly marked by an all-too-cautious approach to spending on the part of consumers and business leaders. Yet, by year’s end, that began to change – with many Americans and firms more willing to open their pocketbooks. Moving forward, I would expect 2.6 percent growth in real GDP in 2017 – a figure that can be assisted by pro-growth policies emanating from Washington including comprehensive tax reform, regulatory balance and investment in infrastructure.

Looking more closely at the underlying data, consumer spending on goods increased 5.2 percent at the annual rate in the fourth quarter, building on the 3.5 percent gain seen in the third quarter. This figure was boosted by strength in durable goods purchases including motor vehicles. Personal consumption expenditures added 1.70 percentage points to real GDP in the fourth quarter, with 0.58 percent coming from services and 1.11 percent stemming from goods spending.

Healthier business spending also served to boost real GDP growth, with gross private domestic investment adding 1.67 percentage points to the top line. It was the largest contribution to the real GDP since the second quarter of 2014. Residential and nonresidential fixed investment rose 10.2 percent and 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter, respectively, with both notching notable improvements from the third quarter. Indeed, residential spending rebounded from a sharp decline in the prior report, and equipment spending rose for the first time in five quarters. Inventories were also up significantly for the second straight quarter, accounting for a full percentage point of the 1.67 percent contribution in this category. Yet, it was not all good news, as nonresidential fixed investment in structures fell 5.0 percent in the fourth quarter.

Finally, manufacturers have been challenged over much of the past two years by a number of global headwinds. This has included a rapid appreciation in the U.S. dollar, as well as economic softness to many key markets. Along those lines, the contribution to GDP from net exports slipped back into negative territory in the fourth quarter for the first time in 2016, subtracting 1.70 percentage points to the headline number. (Put another way, if it had not been for net exports, real GDP growth in the fourth quarter would have been 3.6 percent, not 1.9 percent.) Goods imports jumped 10.9 percent in this release, with goods exports off by 6.9 percent.

Share