Economy Wintered That Storm: Unemployment at 9.7 Percent

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Employment Situation Summary” for February 2010.

Nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (-36,000) in February, and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction and information, while tem- porary help services added jobs. Severe winter weather

in parts of the country may have affected payroll employment and hours; however, it is not possible to quantify precisely the net impact of the winter storms on these measures.

And …

Employment in manufacturing was essentially unchanged in February. Small job gains in a number of component industries were offset by job losses in motor vehicles and parts and in chemicals.

Judging from all the news stories about weather-affected employment, thought the situation would have much worse. Good job of managing expectations, expectation managers!

Washington Post reports: “Job losses were surprisingly mild in February, the Labor Department said, as the employers cut 36,000 net jobs. Economists had expected worse losses due to the snowstorms last month. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.7 percent. The numbers suggest that while the job market is still weak, it is not worsening significantly.”

The photo above is K Street, Washington, looking west toward Farragut Square, 2:30 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 10.

Continued Job Losses in December


After a revised gain of 4,000 jobs in November — the first monthly employment increase in two years — payrolls ended the year down, falling by 85,000 in December according to today’s Labor Department report, while the unemployment rate held steady at 10 percent.

The December report was a mixed bag. While the revised jobs gain in November was encouraging, it would be a mistake to assume that private sector full-time employment is finally on the mend. The gain in November was due entirely to increases in government and temporary employment. Outside of these two areas, payrolls were cut by 55,000 in November and by 110,500 last month.

While overall labor market conditions soured in December, some positive developments did take place. First, temporary employment increased for a fifth consecutive month, an early indication that companies are needing to expand worker-hours in response to rising demand. Second, the decline of 27,000 jobs in manufacturing employment was the shallowest drop in two years. Still, just six of the 19 major manufacturing industries actually increased employment last month.

While today’s report shows that overall economic conditions have improved from the beginning of the year, these numbers still indicate that the economy is still in a fragile state, and manufacturers are still struggling and facing many uncertainties ahead.

November Jobs Report: A Step in the Right Direction

Today’s report by the Labor Department that payroll employment declined only 11,000 last month, while the unemployment edged down to 10 percent from 10.2 percent in October, is a sign that the labor market is gradually stabilizing. The modest overall employment decline in November was mainly due to a rather large increase in temporary employment. At the same time, there was a noticeable increase in weekly hours worked to 33.2 in November from an historic low of 33 in October. Both of these measures have traditionally been precursors to overall employment growth.

It is important to note that one month does not make a trend, and this initial estimate of the employment situation in November will be revised. Manufacturing continues to be hit hard, losing 41,000 more jobs and widespread employment losses continued across most sectors of the economy in November — including construction, retail, finance, and leisure and hospitality.

Employers remain cautious and still lack the confidence to make permanent hires as several risk factors loom over their heads with policy discussions in Washington that could send the economy in the wrong direction.

(David Huether is chief economist of the National Association of Manufacturers)

NPR Reports on What Inspires News Hires

Pretty good story this morning on NPR about the economic forces that play into decisions to lay off and hire employees, “Wary Employers Keep Jobless Numbers High.”

The reporter talks to Steve Schulte, president of Porta King, a modular building manufacturer in Missouri.  Schulte describes the current situation as “hand to mouth,” with the possibility of orders rising and then falling week to week. He also worries about the impact of health care and climate change legislation on the economy.

Tom Duesterberg of the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI observes, “This recession was so severe, so broad, so long, that it’s going to take us longer to come back than other recessions we’ve seen.”

In related commentary, Irwin Stelzer writes at The Examiner, “Congress may stifle recovery before it grows.

Words to Consider as Unemployment Hits 10.2 Percent

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that unemployment hit 10.2 percent in October and manufacturing lost another 61,000 jobs. More on that in a bit, but for now we’re reminded of these comments made at a White House economics advisory group meeting Monday.

We are not going to be able, through government spending, [to] replace business investment. The most important thing we can do is create an environment in which business investment is triggered and they are leading us on this path of economic growth.

Agreed, Mr. President.

 

Manufacturing in the U.S.: Vigorous, but Having a Hard Time

Bloomberg, “Death of U.S. Manufacturing Exaggerated as Free Trade Deferred.” This is a solid look at the state of the U.S. manufacturing sector, highlighting the recent and politically consequential trend: Productivity is increasing, but employment is falling. We’ll cite the most provocative statement:

[The] idea that job losses mean U.S. manufacturing has hollowed out is a “myth,” said William Overholt, a senior research fellow at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government in Cambridge, Massachusetts. All industrialized and industrializing countries go through the same process as their manufacturing becomes more sophisticated and productivity increases. The U.S. lost 2.6 million factory jobs from 1994 to 2004, while China lost 25 million, according to a study Overholt did for the Santa Monica, California-based Rand Corp.

“The familiar views of the fate of U.S. manufacturing are basically a combination of paranoia and propaganda,” Overholt said. “The idea that America’s manufacturing economy is dying is the silliest nonsense.”

The Virginian Pilot, “Closures sting, but region hasn’t lost manufacturing base.” The Tidewater area of Virginia has been hit by some bad jobs news lately: Interational Paper is closing its Franklin mill; Smithfield Foods Packing Co. is shutting down its South Plant; and the CooperVision contact-lens plant in Norfolk in closing. Combined, the shutdowns will cost the are at least 2,300 jobs.

Associated Press, “STIMULUS WATCH: Factory towns slow to see stimulus“:

WASHINGTON — Many communities hit hardest by job losses, those built around dying factories and mills, have been slowest to see relief from President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan, underscoring how hard it is for Washington policymakers to create lasting work in areas that need it most.

The manufacturing industry has shed hundreds of thousands of jobs during the recession as plants have closed or scaled back. Places such as the southwest Missouri city of Lamar, tucked amid endless fields of winter wheat and soybeans, have seen the cornerstones of their economies disappear, leaving a gap that even billions in roadwork and government aid cannot fill

 

Jobs lost in September: 263,000; Unemployment up to 9.8 Percent

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics news release:

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in September (-263,000), and the unemployment rate (9.8 percent) continued to trend up, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The largest job losses were in construction, manufacturing, retail trade, and government. Household Survey Data Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 7.6 million to 15.1 million, and the unemployment rate has doubled to 9.8 percent.

Reuters reports, “Manufacturing employment fell by 51,000 in September, while construction industries payrolls dropped. The service-providing sector cut 147,000 workers in September, while goods-producing industries shed 116,000 positions.”

Both Steve Forbes on Fox News and Chris Low of FTN Financial on Bloomberg point to the problems small business is facing because of the lack of credit.

NAM’s 2009 Labor Day Report, Prospects for Recovery

The National Association of Manufacturers today released its 2009 Labor Day Report, “The Turning Tide - Prospects for a Manufacturing Recovery.”

From the news release:

The report looks at the economic decline in 2008-2009, the signs of stabilization emerging, and the outlook for employment, manufacturing and the economy. It projects an upturn in manufacturing production gradually over the next year with more significant growth in the 2011-2014 period. The report also projects that by 2014, the manufacturing sector will regain more than 40 percent of the jobs lost during the current downturn.

While there are indications that we may be in the early stages of recovery, the report indicates there is significant reason for caution. According to the report, a recovery would be negatively impacted if Congress and the Administration enact policies that discourage investment, hamper flexibility, or raise the costs of doing business in the United States. The report notes that prospects for good jobs, a strong manufacturing sector and a growing economy depend on U.S. global competitiveness.

The full report, written by NAM Chief Economist David Huether, is available here.

Jobs, Coming and Going and Going and Going

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JUNE 2009

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in June (-467,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job losses were widespread across the major industry sectors, with large declines occurring in manufacturing, professional and business services, and construction.

As for manufacturing:

Employment in manufacturing fell by 136,000 over the month and has declined by 1.9 million during the recession. Within the durable goods industry, motor vehicles and parts (-27,000), fabricated metal products (-18,000), computer and electronic products (-16,000), and machinery (-14,000) continued to lose jobs in June. Since the recession began, employment in motor vehicles and parts has declined by 335,000, or about one-third.

Associated Press, “Obama: More work needed to create new jobs

Be not discouraged. Washington Post, “Federal Agencies Could Add 120,000 Area Jobs

Good Economic News, Bad Economic News

The Associated Press, “New jobless claims rise unexpectedly to 627K“:

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of people filing new jobless claims jumped unexpectedly last week, and the total unemployment benefit rolls rose to more than 6.7 million.

The Labor Department data released Thursday show jobs remain scarce even as the economy shows some signs of recovering from the longest recession since World War II.

The department said initial claims for jobless benefits rose last week by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 627,000. Economists expected a drop to 600,000, according to Thomson Reuters.

The Employment and Training Administration’s release with the numbers is here. Meanwhile:

Other recent reports indicate the economy could be bottoming. The Commerce Department said Wednesday that orders to factories for durable goods such as computers, machinery and aircraft increased 1.8 percent in May, much better than analysts expected.

The Census Bureau’s news release on durable goods is here.

UPDATE (11 a.m.): Vice President Joe Biden, speaking to the Communications Workers of America on Wednesday: “With this package, we will create or save over 3.5 million jobs. In the first hundred days, we’ve created 150,000 jobs. In the next 100 days, we’ll create 600,000 jobs. This was a critical step in stopping the economy, which was in free fall 128 days ago.”

About 20 minutes into the video posted here.

© 2010 Shopfloor | Entries (RSS) and Comments (RSS)