Today’s report by the Labor Department that payroll employment declined only 11,000 last month, while the unemployment edged down to 10 percent from 10.2 percent in October, is a sign that the labor market is gradually stabilizing. The modest overall employment decline in November was mainly due to a rather large increase in temporary employment. At the same time, there was a noticeable increase in weekly hours worked to 33.2 in November from an historic low of 33 in October. Both of these measures have traditionally been precursors to overall employment growth.

It is important to note that one month does not make a trend, and this initial estimate of the employment situation in November will be revised. Manufacturing continues to be hit hard, losing 41,000 more jobs and widespread employment losses continued across most sectors of the economy in November — including construction, retail, finance, and leisure and hospitality.

Employers remain cautious and still lack the confidence to make permanent hires as several risk factors loom over their heads with policy discussions in Washington that could send the economy in the wrong direction.

(David Huether is chief economist of the National Association of Manufacturers)

Today’s report by the Labor Department that unemployment jumped from 9.8 percent in September to 10.2 percent in October suggests we have a long way to go to get to to full recovery. Despite some positive reports earlier this week, today’s data suggest that the economy will decelerate from the 3.5 percent rise in the third quarter.

While the 190,000 jobs lost last month were less than the downwardly revised 219,000 drop in September, the difference was not significant. However, the 61,000 decline in manufacturing employment, led by a 10.4 thousand decline in machinery employment, was the largest drop in four months. Because the manufacturing sector is driven broadly by consumer spending, investment spending and exports, the fact that the decline in manufacturing employment occurred across most industries shows that economic conditions are not improving significantly, and strongly suggests that much of the growth in the third quarter was due to temporary government programs.

Also, the rise of the unemployment rate to 10.2 percent will likely have a negative impact on consumer confidence, which could curtail spending in the fourth quarter.

Finally, the average weekly private-sector hours worked remained at an historic low 33 in October; that’s a harbinger of continuing weak economic conditions in the fourth quarter. Historically, the average weekly hours worked for existing employees begins to improve before new workers are added to employment rolls. Today’s report of stagnant hours worked signals slow improvement in the labor market in future months.

Rather than target a single successful, homegrown industry — microbreweries — with a 1,900 percent tax increase, Oregon’s legislative majority has decided to be more inclusive, hitting a broader swatch of industry — especially small businesses. The political strategy is not to tax wage-earners, it’s to tax the people who pay the wages.

From The Associated Press, “Oregon lawmakers nix increasing beer, cigarette taxes in ’09“:

SALEM, Ore. – Proposed beer and cigarette tax increases have been shelved by Democratic legislative leaders who say they don’t want to increase the tax burden on working class people in these tough economic times.

But there’s another issue at play here – lawmakers also don’t want beer and cigarette tax hikes to drag down the big income tax increase package they’ve already passed to balance the next two-year budget.

The $733 million tax increase on corporations and upper-income households is central to the Democrats’ strategy to keep state services afloat by making some cuts, using reserves and stimulus dollars and trying to avoid raising taxes on lower- and middle-income Oregonians.

For more details on hefty increases on business and individual incomes, see the Corvallis Gazette-Times, “Businesses say tax hike will stifle recovery.” And the Wall Street Journal editorialized on the Legislature’s destructive course, “The Oregon Travail,” noting, “Another revenue raiser will tax hospitals and private health insurance premiums. That’s a good way to encourage private employers to drop their health coverage for workers.”

Back in the late ’60s and ’70s, Oregon Governor Tom McCall earned national attention for his generally good-natured anti-California campaigns. He told a CBS reporter, “Come visit us again and again. This is a State of excitement. But for heaven’s sake, don’t move here to live.”

McCall was guarding against the social and government costs brought by rising populations, but turns out it wasn’t the social ills or the pressure on schools and infrastructure that were the real danger. It was bad public policy, exported north from California.

Speaking of which, “California’s unemployment rate climbs to record 11.5 percent“:

LOS ANGELES (AP) - California’s unemployment rate climbed to 11.5 percent in May, the highest in modern record-keeping, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Friday…[snip]

Only four states had higher rates: Michigan, Oregon, Rhode Island and South Carolina. Indeed, Oregon’s 12.4 unemployment rate in May was the second highest in the nation.