U.S. exports of manufactured goods broke out of their stagnant pattern of the last few months and grew 2.7 percent in November, to a seasonally-adjusted value of $87.8 billion (See graph below). On a year over year basis, November manufactured goods exports were 16.7 percent higher than last year – staying ahead of the 15 percent annual rate of growth needed to double exports in five years.

Manufactured goods imports outpaced exports, however, growing 4.4 percent in November, to a seasonally-adjusted value of $124.4 billion. The manufactured goods trade deficit, as a result, grew to a seasonally-adjusted $36.7 billion, up $3 billion from October. (Department of Commerce news release.)

The important sector of capital goods, which is over 40 percent of U.S. manufactured goods exports, remained problematic. November capital goods exports grew only 0.5 percent, while imports were up 2.5 percent, and the deficit on capital good rose to $1.8 billion.

The big surprise was in consumer goods, where U.S. export soared 7 percent over October, while imports fell 3 percent. As a result, the consumer goods deficit shrunk $2 billion, to $26 billion.

The latest data confirm that U.S. manufactured goods trade with U.S. trade agreement partners appears poised to show a surplus of more than $20 billion for the third straight year. The manufactured goods deficit is entirely with countries that do not have bilateral trade agreements with the United States.

Manufactured goods continued to dominate U.S. trade in October, but U.S. manufactured goods export growth has flattened in recent months, according to data released by the Commerce Department today.

October’s seasonally-adjusted manufactured goods exports were $85.3 billion, accounting for 76 percent of all U.S. merchandise exports. Seasonally-adjusted manufactured goods imports stood at $118.6 billion, 73 percent of U.S. merchandise imports.

While the raw data indicate that manufactured goods exports and imports increased in October from September, this is due to seasonal factors. A better picture emerges when the data are seasonally adjusted. Viewed this way, both manufactured goods imports and exports declined in October, but the 1.4-percent decline in imports was considerably larger than the 0.6-percent decline in exports. As a result, the manufactured goods trade deficit contracted slightly to $33.4 billion. October marked the second month of trade balance improvement, and the October deficit was nearly $7 billion smaller than in August.

Contributing to the flatness in October exports were monthly declines in commercial aircraft and semiconductor exports, two important sectors for U.S. trade. The import decline was particularly notable in iron and steel, computers and computer accessories, civilian aircraft and telecommunications equipment.

October manufactured goods exports continued the virtually flat trend they have been on since June 2010, as shown in the graph below. This is not yet reflected in the year-to-date figures, as January-October manufactured goods exports are still running 20 percent ahead of the comparable period for 2009. This growth rate, however, will be endangered if manufactured goods exports do not soon break out of their recent pattern of slow growth.

As has been the case for three years, the latest data show that U.S. manufactured goods trade with U.S. trade agreement partners is running a surplus. So far this year, that surplus is at an annual rate of $20 billion, demonstrating that the U.S. trade agreement program has been the brightest part of the U.S. trade picture.

Manufacturing trade improved in September compared to August, but the overall trend shows a slowing in export growth. 

Department of Commerce trade data released today showed that on a seasonally adjusted basis, U.S. manufactured goods exports were $85.8 billion in September, up $1.6 billion – nearly two percent larger than in August.  Manufactured goods imports fell $3.1 billion to $120.9 billion – a 2.7 percent decline from August.  As a result the manufactured goods trade deficit stood at $35 billion – nearly $5 billion less than August’s $40 billion deficit.  Declines in imports of autos and consumer goods were particularly notable.

Looking at the longer-term trend, manufactured goods export growth appears to be slowing.  The September figures were 16 percent above September 2009, but this is the first time in the last six months that the year-over-year growth figures have slipped below 20 percent.  In fact, despite the good August-September growth, the September figure was just about the same size as July’s.

Capital goods exports, which are so vital to the U.S. export position, have shown no growth since May. This key part of our trade position has now slipped into deficit for two months running.  Clearly this underlines the need for strong action to support faster U.S. export growth to reach the goal of doubling exports by 2014.

U.S. manufactured goods trade with free trade partners continued to be the brightest part of the trade picture as the surplus is now in its third year.  Through September, the U.S. manufactured goods surplus with free trade partners stood at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $20 billion, following the Commerce Department’s methodology.

The latest trade numbers released today by the Commerce Department reaffirm the importance of doubling U.S. exports over the next five years as outlined in President Obama’s National Export Initiative (NEI). The overall U.S. trade deficit grew unexpectedly to almost $50 billion in June, the highest level since October 2008, and imports increased 3 percent, while exports dropped 1.3 percent.

For goods, the deficit was $62 billion in June, up from $54.3 billion in May. The numbers reflect decreases in exports of capital goods and industrial supplies, while there were increased exports in the automotive sector and engines. Imports increased in June to $200.3 billion from $194.4 billion, led by telecommunications equipment, automobiles, pharmaceuticals and furniture.

If the goal is to strengthen the U.S. economy and job creation, then the best response is to expand U.S. exports as called for by both the National Association of Manufacturers and President Obama in his National Export Initiative. And that means we need to do much more – and quickly – to open foreign markets, assist U.S. companies to export more of their production, and enact policies that support innovation and a competitive manufacturing sector. Of the 15 leading manufacturing economies in the world, the United States is dead last in the percentage of production that is exported. The NAM’s “Blueprint to Double Exports in Five Years” points out that reaching this ambitious goal is possible, but only with a radical shift in policies and programs.

For additional information and to read the NAM’s Blueprint please visit www.nam.org/NEI.

Department of Commerce trade data for March released today showed the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services increased $1 billion from February, to $40.4 billion. An increase in the services surplus partially offset a nearly $3 billion jump in the goods deficit. Most of this was in petroleum, but the manufactured goods deficit increased by $1.2 billion as manufactured goods imports expanded more rapidly than exports.

Manufactured goods exports, seasonally adjusted, stood at $83.8 billion in March, up 11 percent from February. Manufactured goods imports were $116.7 billion, up 13 percent. The figures reflected faster growth in consumer goods and automotive imports, not matched by an increase in capital goods exports –- the predominant U.S. manufacturing export.

Comparing March to the same period a year ago, manufactured goods exports were 25 percent larger than March 2009 –- still running well ahead of the 15 percent annual rate that will be needed if the U.S. national goal of doubling exports in five years is to be reached. Manufactured goods imports, though, were up 24 percent, leading to an increase in the deficit.

The U.S. manufactured goods deficit has fallen nearly in half from its peak in 2006 (see graph below), the result both of a more competitive dollar and falling U.S. demand for imports due to the recent recession. The National Association of Manufacturers has expected the deficit to begin rising again with U.S. economic recovery, as consumer goods imports began to increase. Managing the U.S. manufactured goods deficit requires that U.S. exports grow faster than imports –- particularly for capital goods. To achieve this goal will require policy changes to provide more incentives for export and more access to foreign markets through market-opening trade agreements.

So far in 2010 the brightest spot in manufactured goods trade remains the U.S. free trade partners, where collectively, U.S. manufactured goods are in surplus. The manufactured goods deficit is with countries that still maintain barriers to U.S. exports because they have not entered into market-opening agreements with us.

The U.S. merchandise trade balance improved in October 2009, with the bulk of the gain coming from manufactured goods trade. On the basis of the Commerce Department trade figures released today, the NAM has calculated that seasonally adjusted October trade deficit for manufactured goods was $24.8 billion, compared to $27.6 billion in September.

The $2.7 billion improvement in the manufactured goods balance accounted for 85 percent of the overall gain in the merchandise trade balance. October manufactured goods exports were 2.8 percent higher than in September, while imports fell marginally by 0.8 percent.

Exports were paced by the vital capital goods sector, which accounts for nearly half of U.S. manufactured goods exports. Capital goods exports rose 3.7 percent over September. The fact that 21 of the 32 capital goods categories showed growth indicates that the export recovery is broadening..

Trade fluctuates monthly, so not too much can be inferred from one-month changes. However, the October figures reinforce the recovering trend evident in that exports have risen in four of the last five months. October manufactured goods exports were 14 percent higher than their trough in May 2009. Though it is clear manufactured goods exports are recovering, there is still a long way to go, as October exports were still 20 percent below the July 2008 peak immediately before the collapse in world trade.

The recovering export growth, coupled with slower imports stemming from reduced U.S. consumer demand, have combined to slash the U.S. deficit in manufactured goods nearly in half. The deficit peaked at $46 billion in February 2007, compared to the October 2009 deficit of 24.8 billion.

Manufactured goods trade with free trade partners (NAFTA, CAFTA, and the other free trade agreements) continued to be in surplus in 2009, which through September was at an annual rate of $26 billion – up from the $21 billion surplus in 2008. As we often point out, contrary to the claims of trade critics, the United States has a [manufactured goods*] trade surplus with the countries with which the United States has concluded free trade agreements.

* Editor’s mistake, corrected 8:55 a.m. Friday. In editing copy, I omitted the important qualifier, “manufactured goods.” Thanks to commenter Karl for the catch.