The Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau reported that the U.S. trade balance in November widened to $47.8 billion from $43.3 billion in October. Americans imported $225.6 billion in goods and services for the month (up from $222.6 the previous month) and exported $177.8 billion (down from $179.4 billion).

A widening of the deficits for goods and petroleum led to this month’s larger overall deficit. Exports of industrial supplies and materials fell from $43.1 billion to $41.4 billion, with smaller declines observed in the export of food products, automobiles and capital goods. There was, however, a net gain in exports for consumer goods. The trade balance for petroleum, meanwhile, fell from $24.2 billion to $27.6 billion, largely on higher imports.

Looking geographically, exports to Europe have slowed somewhat, as you might expect given challenges in the Eurozone area. Exports of goods and services to Europe fell from $28.4 billion in October to $26.8 billion in November. Note that Europe accounts for over 20 percent of U.S. manufactured goods exports, so any stalling in the region for sales of our products can have an impact. Nonetheless, slower exports were not just a phenomenon of Europe, as few exports were also observed across-the-board in other regions, as well.

The value of U.S. manufactured goods exported in November was $81.9 billion, down from $86.2 billion in October. Still, there have been $889.3 billion in manufactured goods exports year-to-date in 2011 (through November); that represents an 11.8 percent increase on the $795.4 billion at the same point in 2010. Note that these numbers are not seasonally adjusted.

Manufactured goods account for 60 percent of our total exports. With that in mind, we will depend heavily on the manufacturing sector if we are to make the President’s goal of doubling exports by 2015. Hopefully, global economic growth can pick up in the coming month, helping to provide a boost to our trade numbers. Economic weaknesses in Europe and elsewhere, though, could hinder this goal.

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

Petroleum and manufactured goods dominated the U.S. trade deficit during the first half of 2011 according to data released today by the Commerce Department.

Of the $288 billion dollar goods and services deficit accumulated so far this year, the deficit in petroleum was  $169 billion and in manufactures was $213 billion – together they account for more than the entire deficit.  Partially offsetting these deficits were surpluses in services and agricultural commodities.

The petroleum deficit in the first half of 2011 was $32 billion larger than in the first half of 2010, and the manufactured goods deficit was up $38 billion.

Total U.S. exports of goods and services were up 16 percent over the first half of 2010, staying ahead of the 15 percent annual rate necessary to reach the goal of doubling exports by the end of 2014.  Manufactured goods exports, however, have slipped below this target rate, rising 12.8 percent over the first half of 2010.

Manufactures outperformed services, which grew only 9.9 percent.  Overall export growth was spurred by agricultural goods and mineral fuel exports. (continue reading…)

The April U.S. foreign trade data released by the Department of Commerce today show some positive news for manufacturers. U.S. manufactured goods trade in April recorded a second favorable month in a row, with a strong increase in exports and a decline in the manufactured goods deficit. The important category of capital goods showed particularly strong export growth.

Manufactured goods exports in April stood at a seasonally-adjusted $97.2 billion, up 1.2 percent over March – an annual rate of increase of 16 percent.  This continues the generally strong pattern of the last year, and April manufactured goods exports were 15 percent larger than in April 2010. Fifteen percent a year is what is needed to meet the goal of doubling exports in five years, so manufactured goods are still on that path.

Manufactured goods imports in April were $134 billion, down one percent from March. Part of the reason for the drop was a 19 percent one-month drop in imports from Japan, reflecting the results of the disruption caused by the tsunami and nuclear disasters that affected Japan.

The U.S. balance of trade in manufactured goods declined in April as a result of the stronger export growth and slight decline in imports. The seasonally-adjusted deficit of $36.8 billion was the lowest so far this year, but that deficit implies an annual rate of $442 billion. (continue reading…)

National Association of Manufacturers Vice President for International Economic Affairs Frank Vargo recorded a short video early today on the March trade numbers released this morning by the Commerce Department.

The U.S. balance of trade in goods and services worsened by $3 billion in March, to a seasonally adjusted balance of $62 billion, an annual rate of $745 billion. The $3 billion change was almost totally in goods trade, the result of a $6 billion increase in the petroleum deficit and an improvement of $3 billion in non-petroleum trade.

Two-thirds of the improvement in non-petroleum trade was in manufactured goods, with the seasonally-adjusted trade balance of $40 billion being $2 billion smaller than in February.

March manufactured goods exports of $95.8 billion, seasonally-adjusted, represented a one-month jump of 4.5 percent, the highest one-month increase in three years – and setting a new record high, exceeding the previous peak of $94.2 billion in July 2008.

The growth in March compensated for the slow January and February growth and brought the year-over-year (March 2011 compared to March 2010) growth up to 14.5 percent, very close to the 15 percent annual growth path needed to double exports in five years.

The growth was paced by basic manufactured goods exports (other than advanced technology exports), which were up 17.5 percent over March 2010. Advanced technology export growth lagged, up only 6 percent. Basic manufactured goods are more sensitive to price changes and appear to be benefitting more from the appreciation of other currencies against the dollar – which makes price-sensitive U.S. exports more attractive in foreign currencies. Organic chemical exports, for example jumped 14 percent over February.

Manufactured goods imports grew as well, but considerably slower than exports in March, leading to the decline in the trade deficit.

Detailed data on the country distribution of U.S. manufactured goods trade will be available Tuesday afternoon, and will be reported on shortly in another post. 

Frank Vargo is vice president for international economic affairs at the National Association of Manufacturers.

A commonly held misperception that U.S. manufacturing companies investment abroad necessarily means the loss of jobs here in the United States.  This misperception fails to understand the nature of U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) abroad, which is mostly to serve the local market.  Why else would nearly half of multinational manufacturers’ workers be located in high-wage Europe and Canada?  In 2008, over 70 percent of U.S. manufacturing foreign direct investment by value was in developed countries, and only 4 percent of total FDI was in China.

Fewer than 10 percent of these overseas workers are in China. Even during the relatively high growth years from 2000-2008 manufacturing jobs at U.S. manufacturing multinationals’ foreign affiliates increased by only 314,000 – and more than a third of those were located in Europe.

Roughly 90 percent of these foreign manufacturing affiliates’ sales were to local markets, not to export back to the United States. Foreign affiliates are key export targets for U.S. manufacturing multinational companies. In 2008 alone these affiliates received nearly half ($240 billion) of their total U.S. parent’s exports.

In 2008 the U.S. exported 22 percent of U.S. manufactured products.  U.S. manufacturing investments overseas are simply not the cause of the trade deficit.  Taking a close look at the figures shows that, excluding petroleum and coal products, manufacturing multinational corporations actually produced a trade surplus in 2008 of over $100 billion! These are the facts about U.S. manufacturing investment abroad.

Stephen Jacobs is director of international business policy for the National Association of Manufacturers.

The U.S. deficit in manufactured goods grew to a seasonally-adjusted $40 billion in January 2011, based on data released by the Census Bureau today. That was a $6 billion increase over December 2010. Exports of manufactured goods fell 0.5 percent to a seasonally-adjusted $91.4 billion while imports rose 4.1 percent to $131.5 billion.

The biggest shift was in capital goods, where U.S. exports fell 1.2 percent from December, while imports rose 5.2 percent. That accounted for 40 percent of the increase in the deficit. Most of the rest of the increase was in consumer goods and automobiles.

Exports of commercial aircraft, which are subject to wide month to month swings, fell $1 billion in January, and accounted for more than the entire drop in capital goods exports. Particularly rapid one-month increases in imports of capital goods were in industrial machinery (up 16 percent over December), industrial engines (up 18 percent), and medical equipment (up 11 percent).

In terms of year-over-year developments, exports of manufactured goods in January were up 13 percent over January 2010, slightly below the flight path of 15 percent needed to double exports by 2014. Imports of manufactured goods, on the other hand, were up a considerably faster 22 percent.

Highlighting the important fact that U.S. manufactured goods trade performs much better with countries with which the United States has bilateral trade agreements, the latest data show that for U.S. trade agreement partners U.S. manufacturers continue to register a surplus – currently averaging about $1.8 billion a month. 

Today’s report is a reminder of how important it is to move forward with the pending FTAs with Korea, Panama, and Colombia. The NAM has outlined the steps that need to be taken in order to reach the President’s goal of doubling exports in our Blueprint to Double Exports in Five Years.

Frank Vargo is the NAM vice president for internationl economic affairs.

The Commerce Department’s release of full-year 2010 trade data today showed U.S. exports of manufactured goods rose 20 percent over 2009.  Manufactured goods exports outpaced other sectors, and accounted for fully 70 percent of the overall increase in total U.S. exports of goods and services. 

The huge increase in exports was welcome news to manufacturers struggling to recover from the recent recession.  Manufacturers’ sales in 2010 were up 9 percent in 2010, with exports accounting for over 40 percent of that increase.  Sales for the domestic market were up only 6 percent.  Manufacturers will need continued export growth in order to boost factory jobs in the coming years.

Imports of manufactured goods rose more rapidly than exports in 2010, up 23 percent; pushing the manufactured goods deficit up from $326 billion in 2009 to nearly $416 billion in 2010. 

Manufactured goods trade with U.S. Free Trade (FTA) partners bucked the trend, and turned in a surplus for the third straight year.  Counter to widely-held views that trade agreements are bad for manufacturing, over the past three years the United States has sold about $70 billion more manufactured goods to FTA partners than we imported from them.

Frank Vargo is the NAM vice president for international economic affairs.

U.S. exports of manufactured goods broke out of their stagnant pattern of the last few months and grew 2.7 percent in November, to a seasonally-adjusted value of $87.8 billion (See graph below). On a year over year basis, November manufactured goods exports were 16.7 percent higher than last year – staying ahead of the 15 percent annual rate of growth needed to double exports in five years.

Manufactured goods imports outpaced exports, however, growing 4.4 percent in November, to a seasonally-adjusted value of $124.4 billion. The manufactured goods trade deficit, as a result, grew to a seasonally-adjusted $36.7 billion, up $3 billion from October. (Department of Commerce news release.)

The important sector of capital goods, which is over 40 percent of U.S. manufactured goods exports, remained problematic. November capital goods exports grew only 0.5 percent, while imports were up 2.5 percent, and the deficit on capital good rose to $1.8 billion.

The big surprise was in consumer goods, where U.S. export soared 7 percent over October, while imports fell 3 percent. As a result, the consumer goods deficit shrunk $2 billion, to $26 billion.

The latest data confirm that U.S. manufactured goods trade with U.S. trade agreement partners appears poised to show a surplus of more than $20 billion for the third straight year. The manufactured goods deficit is entirely with countries that do not have bilateral trade agreements with the United States.

Manufactured goods continued to dominate U.S. trade in October, but U.S. manufactured goods export growth has flattened in recent months, according to data released by the Commerce Department today.

October’s seasonally-adjusted manufactured goods exports were $85.3 billion, accounting for 76 percent of all U.S. merchandise exports. Seasonally-adjusted manufactured goods imports stood at $118.6 billion, 73 percent of U.S. merchandise imports.

While the raw data indicate that manufactured goods exports and imports increased in October from September, this is due to seasonal factors. A better picture emerges when the data are seasonally adjusted. Viewed this way, both manufactured goods imports and exports declined in October, but the 1.4-percent decline in imports was considerably larger than the 0.6-percent decline in exports. As a result, the manufactured goods trade deficit contracted slightly to $33.4 billion. October marked the second month of trade balance improvement, and the October deficit was nearly $7 billion smaller than in August.

Contributing to the flatness in October exports were monthly declines in commercial aircraft and semiconductor exports, two important sectors for U.S. trade. The import decline was particularly notable in iron and steel, computers and computer accessories, civilian aircraft and telecommunications equipment.

October manufactured goods exports continued the virtually flat trend they have been on since June 2010, as shown in the graph below. This is not yet reflected in the year-to-date figures, as January-October manufactured goods exports are still running 20 percent ahead of the comparable period for 2009. This growth rate, however, will be endangered if manufactured goods exports do not soon break out of their recent pattern of slow growth.

As has been the case for three years, the latest data show that U.S. manufactured goods trade with U.S. trade agreement partners is running a surplus. So far this year, that surplus is at an annual rate of $20 billion, demonstrating that the U.S. trade agreement program has been the brightest part of the U.S. trade picture.