Tag: Richmond Fed

Monday Economic Report – March 30, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

As we have seen in past weeks, economic data continue to reflect dampened activity in the early months of 2015 as a result of a number of significant headwinds. These challenges range from weak economic growth abroad, to a significantly strengthened U.S. dollar, to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. Weather and the West Coast ports slowdown have also been relevant factors in some of the softness that we have seen in the reports released since December. As a result, the first quarter is likely to grow around 1.8 percent. This would be less than the 2.2 percent growth rate in real GDP seen during the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, I am predicting 2.8 percent growth in real GDP in 2015, reflecting a slight deceleration in my outlook for the year. The expectation is that we will see some rebounds moving forward, with manufacturers continuing to be more upbeat about the coming months, even with some challenges likely to continue. (continue reading…)

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Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Contracted in March

The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity contracted in March, declining for the first time in 12 months. The composite index of general business conditions decreased from zero in February to -8 in March. The underlying data were lower across-the-board, reflecting weaknesses for the month in terms of overall activity and a deterioration from February’s numbers. This included new orders (down from -2 to -13), shipments (down from -1 to -13), capacity utilization (down from -4 to -7) and the average workweek (up from -6 to -4). As such, manufacturers clearly pulled back in a number of areas for the month, likely due to global slowness, a stronger dollar and reduced commodity prices. On the positive side, hiring (up from 4 to 6) continued to grow modestly, providing some encouragement moving forward. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – March 2, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

While manufacturers remain mostly optimistic in their outlook, we have seen softness in a number of recent economic indicators. Slower economic growth internationally, a stronger U.S. dollar, reduced crude oil prices and the West Coast ports slowdown have been cited as reasons for this weaker-than-desired performance. Along those lines, real GDP growth in the fourth quarter was revised lower, down from 2.6 percent to 2.2 percent. In addition, surveys from the Dallas, Kansas City and Richmond Federal Reserve Banks all reflected decelerated levels of new orders and exports. Most notably, Texas manufacturers have been adversely impacted by the sharp drop in petroleum prices, dampening demand throughout the energy supply chain and for the larger regional economy. Yet, even in the Dallas report, respondents continued to be more positive than negative in their expectations for sales, production, employment and capital spending over the next six months. (continue reading…)

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Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Stagnated in February

The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity stagnated in February, ending 10 straight months of expansion in the district. The composite index of general business conditions declined from 6 in January to zero in February, its lowest level since contracting in March 2014. Indeed, many of the underlying measures slipped into negative territory in February. This included new orders (down from 4 to -2), shipments (down from 10 to -1), capacity utilization (down from 9 to -4) and the average workweek (down from 8 to -6). As such, manufacturers clearly pulled back in a number of areas for the month, likely due to global slowness, a stronger dollar and reduced commodity prices. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – February 2, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The U.S. economy grew 2.4 percent in 2014, just barely edging out the 2.2 percent gain in 2013. Yet, that somewhat understates the strength of the economy since the winter-related weaknesses seen at this point last year. Indeed, real GDP increased by an annualized 4.1 percent during the last three quarters of 2014, and in the fourth quarter, Americans spent at a healthy 4.3 percent annual pace, the fastest rate since the first quarter of 2006. Still, the 2.6 percent growth rate in real GDP in the fourth quarter also had some red flags. Weaker growth abroad, a strengthening U.S. dollar and worries about dramatically lower energy prices have impacted capital spending and international demand negatively. Therefore, while manufacturers remain mostly upbeat about orders and production in 2015, these developments serve as a reminder of the challenges in the global marketplace right now. (continue reading…)

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Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Continues to Grow Modestly

The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity continued to expand modestly in January. The composite index of general business conditions edged marginally lower, down from 7 in December to 6 in January. While this represented a slower pace than the more-robust growth seen in October, when the composite index measured 20, it did represent the tenth consecutive monthly expansion in the Richmond Fed district. Moreover, growth in shipments (up from 5 to 10), capacity utilization (up from -5 to 9) and the average workweek (up from 4 to 8) accelerated for the month, which were encouraging signs. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – December 1, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The U.S. economy grew 3.9 percent at the annual rate in the third quarter, according to revised real GDP data released last week. This was better than the 3.5 percent original estimate, and more importantly, it suggests real GDP increased at an annualized 4.2 percent over the past two quarters. The report highlighted a number of positive elements in the economy, including healthy increases in consumer and business spending, goods exports and end-of-fiscal-year government spending. The revision also included better inventory replenishment numbers than originally estimated. (continue reading…)

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Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Expanded at a Slower Rate in November

The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity expanded at a slower rate in November. The composite index of general business conditions declined from 20 in October to 4 in November. To be fair, the October figure represented the fastest pace since December 2010, and as such, some pullback might have been expected. The larger story is that manufacturers in the Richmond Fed district have now reported expanding levels of activity for eight straight months, with the headline index averaging 9 over that time frame. This suggests modest growth overall. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – November 3, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

The U.S. economy grew 3.5 percent at the annual rate in the third quarter, representing decent growth following the disappointing first half of 2014. Consumer and business spending, which rebounded strongly in the second quarter, extended those gains in the third quarter, albeit with some easing in the pace of growth. Exports were also up strongly for the quarter, and imports were down. Dramatic inventory swings over the past three quarters were also evident, with stockpiles searching for a new normal. After adding 1.47 percentage points to real GDP in the second quarter, slower inventory replenishment subtracted 0.57 percent in the third quarter, making it one of the few negatives in the report. (continue reading…)

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Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Continued to Expand at Fastest Pace in Nearly 4 Years

The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity continued to expand at its fastest pace since December 2010. The composite index of general business conditions rose from 14 in September to 20 in October. It was the seventh consecutive monthly expansion since the winter-related contractions in both February and March. Indeed, much like other regional surveys, these data show an uptick in demand and production for manufacturers recently, with a mostly upbeat assessment for the coming months.

Looking specifically at current activity, manufacturing leaders in the Richmond Fed district noted sharply higher paces for new orders (up from 14 to 22) and shipments (up from 11 to 23). (continue reading…)

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