Tag: producer prices

Producer Prices Were Higher in June, Extending the Gains Seen in May

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that producer prices for final demand goods and services rose 0.4 percent in June, extending the 0.5 percent increase seen in May. The gains for the goods sector were even stronger. Indeed, producer prices for final demand goods jumped 1.3 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, in May and June, with each month spurred higher by rising energy and food costs. On the energy front, energy goods were 5.9 percent and 2.4 percent more expensive in those two months, respectively. This was consistent with the rise in West Texas intermediate crude oil prices, up from an average of $54.45 per barrel in April to $59.82 a barrel in June. At the same time, final demand energy goods costs remain 17.9 percent lower today than 12 months ago. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – March 16, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

Global news dominated the headlines once again last week. The euro sank lower as the European Central Bank began its quantitative easing program, where it plans to purchase 1 trillion euros in government bonds over the next 18 months in an effort to stimulate faster economic growth. As a result, the euro has depreciated by nearly 25 percent over the past 10 months, down from $1.3924 per one euro on May 6 to a close of $1.0483 on Friday. There is also some expectation that it will move to parity soon, a level last seen in November 2002. (For more information on international developments, see the latest Global Manufacturing Economic Update.) (continue reading…)

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Producer Prices for Final Demand Goods Have Fallen for 8 Straight Months

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that producer prices for final demand goods and services surprisingly fell 0.5 percent in February. The consensus expectation had been for an increase of 0.3 percent, particularly as petroleum prices have stopped falling. Indeed, final demand energy goods prices were unchanged as a whole in February, the first non-negative number since June. Yet, lower food prices helped to reduce producer prices for final demand goods for the eighth straight month, down 0.4 percent. In particular, there were lower prices reported for dairy products, fruits and vegetables, grains, meats and shellfish – precisely the areas that have seen significant increases over much of the past year. Food prices rose 4.3 percent in 2014, but declines in the first two months of 2015 have reduced these costs by 2.6 percent. (continue reading…)

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Producer Prices Fell 0.8 Percent in January

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that producer prices for final demand goods and services declined 0.8 percent in January, falling for the fifth time in the past six months. Looking just at final demand goods, producer prices plummeted in January, down 2.1 percent and off for the seventh consecutive month. Reduced energy prices have contributed to the sharp decline in producer prices, with final demand energy goods down 10.3 percent in January alone. Indeed, West Texas intermediate crude sold for an average of $47.22 a barrel in January, down from the monthly average of $59.29 in December. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – January 20, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

Financial markets around the world continued to react to the softening global economic environment. In particular, foreign exchange markets were rocked by news that Switzerland would no longer support its cap on the franc, where that currency has been seen as a safe haven, particularly against the euro. Almost immediately, the Swiss franc appreciated sharply against the euro and other currencies. For its part, the euro has continued to depreciate against the U.S. dollar, with one euro selling for $1.1581 on Friday. This was down $1.3927 on March 17, the high point of 2014, representing an appreciation of more than 17 percent for the U.S. dollar against the euro. These developments could hurt the ability of manufacturers in the United States to grow exports. (continue reading…)

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Producer Prices for Final Demand Goods Declined in December for the Sixth Straight Month

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that producer prices for final demand goods and services decreased 0.3 percent in December. Looking just at goods, producer prices for final demand items have now fallen for six consecutive months, down 3.0 percent over that time frame. A large part of that decline, of course, stemmed from sharply lower petroleum prices. Producer prices for energy goods were off 6.6 percent in December, with a 14.8 percent decline since June. This has generally helped to push inflationary pressures lower.  (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – December 15, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The biggest domestic economic news story last week was actually a global one: The price of petroleum continued to plummet. Since peaking at $107.95 per barrel on June 20, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude has fallen dramatically, down to $57.49 a barrel on Friday. There are a number of factors at play here, including increased North American energy production, excess supply worldwide, a stronger U.S. dollar and a slowing global economy. It is this latter point that has spooked financial markets, on fear that the weakened global demand for petroleum might be a harbinger of larger challenges. Indeed, as discussed in the most recent Global Manufacturing Economic Update, North America’s economy appears to be a bright spot in an otherwise sluggish international economic climate. (continue reading…)

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Producer Prices for Final Demand Goods Fell in November for the Fifth Straight Month

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that producer prices for final demand goods and services declined 0.2 percent in November. Producer prices for final demand goods fell for the fifth straight month, down 0.7 percent or 1.7 percent since June. Much of that decline, as you might expect, stemmed from reduced energy costs, which has decreased 8.8 percent since June and was off 3.1 percent in November. Of course, petroleum prices have continued to fall since then, with West Texas intermediate crude selling for less than $59 a barrel today, a level last seen in mid-2009. This has helped to reduce overall pricing pressures in the economy. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – October 20, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Global financial markets were highly volatile last week, with investors concerned about slower growth in Europe and an Ebola outbreak in the United States, among other factors. Indeed, industrial production in the Eurozone fell 1.8 percent in August, and activity was down largely across-the-board, most notably in Germany (down 4.3 percent), the Eurozone’s largest economy. Sluggish income and labor market growth in Europe has also pushed inflationary pressures lower, with year-over-year pricing changes of just 0.3 percent in September. Despite such worries, equity markets began to rebound on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closing at 16380.41. Nonetheless, the DJIA remains 5.2 percent below its all-time high of 17279.74 on September 19.

Still, the U.S. economy has shown signs of resilience. Despite a softer August, manufacturing production increased 0.5 percent in September. Over the past 12 months, output in the sector has risen 3.7 percent. While this was slower than its July year-over-year pace, it reflects a nice improvement from the more sluggish 1.5 percent rate in January.

Moreover, surveys from the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI) and the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks observed expanding activity levels in their latest reports. Each measure eased somewhat in October, but they were expansionary nonetheless. The weakest of these reports was the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which observed a slight contraction in new orders. Yet, even there, respondents remained mostly optimistic about demand and output over the next six months. Along those lines, MAPI has a generally upbeat outlook, predicting that manufacturing production will increase by 3.4 percent in 2014 and 4.0 percent in 2015.

Housing starts exceeded 1 million again, increasing from an annualized 957,000 units in August to 1,017,000 in September. This continues a slow-but-steady trend upward, with an average of 978,111 so far in 2014 relative to an average of 930,000 for all of 2013. Still, there was relatively weak housing activity throughout much of the second half of last year and the first half of this year, and the latest data suggest that the sector has begun to stabilize somewhat. I continue to predict housing starts solidly in the 1.1 million unit range by the beginning of 2015. Homebuilder confidence has also reflected a positive outlook despite slipping a bit in October. Lower mortgage rates might spur more residential construction activity. According to Freddie Mac, average 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to 3.97 percent this past week, their lowest level since June 2013.

Meanwhile, there was mixed news on the consumer front. On the positive side, consumer confidence reached a pre-recessionary high, according to the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters. This is a sign that improvements in the economy and lower gasoline prices have helped to lift Americans’ spirits. Yet, there are also lingering worries about income and labor market growth, and consumers remain somewhat cautious overall. Retail spending declined 0.3 percent in September, suggesting softness as we begin autumn. At the same time, year-over-year growth in retail sales was up 4.3 percent, a fairly decent rate, and the holiday season retail outlook looks pretty strong. We hope we will see better consumer spending data in the coming months.

This week, we will get additional insights regarding the health of the global economy. Markit will release Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for China, Japan, the Eurozone and the United States. The European data are expected to show continued weakness, but we will be watching for signs of progress in the Chinese manufacturing sector, which has decelerated in recent months. The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank will also unveil its latest manufacturing survey, and it is expected to show continued expansion in its district. Beyond these surveys, we will learn about growth in consumer prices, and if they are similar to the producer price index data released last week, they will reflect easing in both food and energy costs. Other highlights this week include reports on existing and new home sales, leading indicators and state employment.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers. 

DJIA - oct2014

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Lower Energy and Food Costs Push Producer Prices Down in September

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that producer prices for final demand goods and services were down 0.1 percent in September. It was the third straight month with inflationary pressures easing, a positive development that helps both businesses and consumers. On a year-over-year basis, final demand producer prices have risen 1.6 percent over the past 12 months, decelerating from 2.1 percent in May. Producer prices for final demand goods were off 0.2 percent, extending the 0.3 percent decline observed in August, with both food and energy costs lower.

Energy prices have fallen in four of the past five months, declining by 0.7 percent in September. One of the key drivers of this decrease was the fall in gasoline prices, down 2.6 percent for the month. Indeed, the price of West Texas intermediate crude was $97.86 per barrel on August 29, but by September 30, that figure had fallen to $91.17 a barrel. (It has declined further since then, closing at $81.84 per barrel yesterday. This could indicate further deceleration in energy and producer prices in October.)

Meanwhile, food prices also decreased 0.7 percent in September. After rising 5.4 percent from December to April, producer prices for final demand food products have eased by 1.5 percent. As such, the cost of food remained 3.8 percent higher in September than at the start of the year. This has largely stemmed from higher prices for meats, eggs, dairy and produce. The largest price declines in August were seen in beef and veal, chicken, cooking oils, eggs, grains, milled rice, pork, oilseeds and turkey products.

Beyond food and energy, core prices for final demand goods were up 0.2 percent. There were higher monthly costs for commercial products, floor coverings, industrial chemicals, pumps and compressors and women’s apparel. At the same time, producer prices for footwear, household appliances and furniture, jewelry, lawn and garden equipment, passenger cars, toys and games and truck trailers were lower.

Core inflation for final demand goods and services was 1.6 percent in September, down from 1.8 percent in August and 2.1 percent in May. As such, the reduction in inflation seen in the past few months should take some pressure off of the Federal Reserve Board as it prepares to normalize its monetary policies.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers. 

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