Tag: Monday Economic Report

Monday Economic Report – May 26, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

The minutes of the April 28–29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting highlighted the nuance that many of us see in the economy right now. The Federal Reserve highlighted a number of challenges facing consumers and businesses in the early months of 2015, noting how these headwinds have dampened overall activity year-to-date. On the other hand, the FOMC felt that slowing economic growth was largely due to “transitory factors,” with its outlook mostly unchanged for the rest of this year. The Federal Reserve projects growth of 2.3 to 2.7 percent in 2015, and it expects the unemployment rate to fall to 5.0 to 5.2 percent.   (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – May 18, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

One of the larger headlines of the past week was the renewed strength of the euro, which closed at $1.1449 on Friday. To put that exchange rate in perspective, the euro traded for $1.0582 on April 13, and Friday’s close was the highest level for the euro since February 2. To be fair, the U.S. dollar remains strong against the euro, up 17.8 percent since May 6, 2014. Yet, the recent weakness in the dollar (and strength in the euro) has been the result of weaker-than-expected economic data in the United States and better-than-anticipated numbers coming out of Europe. Many of the underlying long-term fundamentals in these two regions remain the same, but those manufacturers worried about the negative impact of a soaring dollar got some welcome relief last week in the recent easing of the greenback. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – May 11, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

Once again, there was evidence last week that significant headwinds have dampened activity in the manufacturing sector. The sector added just 1,000 net new workers in April, marking the third consecutive month with soft hiring. The data suggest that challenges from a strong dollar, slowing growth abroad, lower crude oil prices, residual effects from the West Coast ports slowdown, a cautious consumer and weather have combined to take their toll on the economy, at least for the time being. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – May 4, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The U.S. economy stagnated in the first quarter, with real GDP growing by just 0.2 percent. This compares to a consensus estimate of 1.1 percent, and it was lower than the 5.0 percent and 2.2 percent growth rates observed in the third and fourth quarters of 2014, respectively. As one might expect from a data point that is just shy of zero, the underlying contributions to growth were mixed. Net exports and government spending were drags on activity in the first quarter, particularly with headwinds from a stronger dollar. Consumer spending on goods and nonresidential fixed investment were also weak, with the latter experiencing sharp declines stemming from the energy market and its supply chain. The bright spots—to the extent that you could call them that—were service-sector spending and a rebound in inventories. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – April 27, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Durable goods orders jumped 4.0 percent in March, which should be a sign that the sector was growing strongly and rebounding from recent softness. Instead, strong aircraft and motor vehicle sales in the month masked broader weaknesses behind the surface. Excluding transportation equipment orders, durable goods sales dropped 0.2 percent for the month and have edged lower across the past six months. Durable goods shipments were somewhat more encouraging on a year-over-year basis, up 3.7 percent, but they have been essentially flat since September. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – April 13, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

After a slew of releases the week before, last week was a quiet one on the economic front. This brief pause allowed us to absorb the data that we have before moving forward. Manufacturers have needed to reconcile the weaker-than-desired market in the first quarter of 2015 with a still-upbeat sales, output and labor market outlook for the coming months. This is true even with significant headwinds, including a stronger U.S. dollar, which should continue at least for the rest of this year. The Federal Reserve has equally had to deal with these changing dynamics, particularly grappling with when to begin normalizing short-term interest rates later this year. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – March 30, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

As we have seen in past weeks, economic data continue to reflect dampened activity in the early months of 2015 as a result of a number of significant headwinds. These challenges range from weak economic growth abroad, to a significantly strengthened U.S. dollar, to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. Weather and the West Coast ports slowdown have also been relevant factors in some of the softness that we have seen in the reports released since December. As a result, the first quarter is likely to grow around 1.8 percent. This would be less than the 2.2 percent growth rate in real GDP seen during the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, I am predicting 2.8 percent growth in real GDP in 2015, reflecting a slight deceleration in my outlook for the year. The expectation is that we will see some rebounds moving forward, with manufacturers continuing to be more upbeat about the coming months, even with some challenges likely to continue. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – March 23, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The U.S. economy has sputtered a bit in the early months of 2015. While it continues to grow modestly, several economic indicators are weaker than we would prefer. For example, manufacturing production decreased by 0.2 percent in February, declining for the third straight month. Many headwinds have combined to bring about this softness in the manufacturing sector, including global economic weakness, a strong U.S. dollar, the West Coast ports slowdown, a cautious consumer and the weather in some parts of the country. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – March 9, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

According to the latest NAM/IndustryWeek Survey of Manufacturers, which will be released this morning, business leaders remain mostly confident about activity over the coming months. In fact, 88.5 percent of respondents said they were either somewhat or very positive about the own company’s outlook, and the data are consistent with 3 percent growth in manufacturing production over the next two quarters. Yet, manufacturers who replied to this survey were slightly less upbeat than they were three months ago, when 91.2 percent of respondents were positive in their outlook. Sales, exports and hiring expectations over the next 12 months also decelerated slightly, even as they remain improved from the paces seen a year ago. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – March 2, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

While manufacturers remain mostly optimistic in their outlook, we have seen softness in a number of recent economic indicators. Slower economic growth internationally, a stronger U.S. dollar, reduced crude oil prices and the West Coast ports slowdown have been cited as reasons for this weaker-than-desired performance. Along those lines, real GDP growth in the fourth quarter was revised lower, down from 2.6 percent to 2.2 percent. In addition, surveys from the Dallas, Kansas City and Richmond Federal Reserve Banks all reflected decelerated levels of new orders and exports. Most notably, Texas manufacturers have been adversely impacted by the sharp drop in petroleum prices, dampening demand throughout the energy supply chain and for the larger regional economy. Yet, even in the Dallas report, respondents continued to be more positive than negative in their expectations for sales, production, employment and capital spending over the next six months. (continue reading…)

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