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Markit PMI

Markit: U.S. Manufacturing Activity Grew at the Slowest Pace since September 2009

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U.S. manufacturing activity grew at the slowest pace since September 2009, according to preliminary figures from Markit. The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI decreased from 51.5 in March to 50.8 in April. In general, the strong dollar and weaknesses abroad have dampened international demand and overall sentiment over the course of the past year. Manufacturing activity has decelerated significantly over the past 12 months, with the main PMI number down from 54.2 in April 2015. In this report, output (down from 51.4 to 50.3) and hiring (down from 52.1 to 50.2) each pulled back to a near-standstill, with exports (down from 50.0 to 48.5) contracting for the second time in the past three months. On the other hand, new orders (down from 52.8 to 52.0) continued to expand modestly, but with some easing for the month.

As such, this report stands in sharp contrast to the better-than-expected sentiment seen in the competing data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). In that release, new orders and output each grew surprisingly strong in March, lifting its manufacturing PMI value above 50 for the first time since August. It provided some encouragement after months of softness, even as other economic data – including this one from Markit – continue to suggest ongoing challenges. Read More

Markit: U.S. Manufacturing Activity Remained “Subdued” Despite Picking up a Little in March

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U.S. manufacturing activity remained “subdued” despite picking up a little in March, according to the latest figures from Markit. The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.3 in February, its slowest pace in more than three years, to 51.4 in March. This suggests that manufacturing in the U.S. remains challenged despite some signs of progress, including accelerated growth for new orders (up from 51.7 to 52.8), output (up from 51.3 to 51.4) and hiring (up from 51.5 to 52.1). The pickup in demand is notable, even as the sales expanded at a much faster pace at this point last year, when the index for new orders stood at 56.4. On the other hand, exports (up from 49.1 to 50.0) were stagnant in March, stabilizing a bit after contracting in February. In general, the strong dollar and weaknesses abroad have dampened international demand and overall sentiment over the course of the past year, with the export index averaging 50.2 over the past 15 months. Read More

Markit US PMI

Markit: U.S. Manufacturing Activity in February Eased to its Slowest Pace since October 2012

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The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI fell to its slowest pace in more than three years in February, a sign that challenges hitting the sector have not yet abated. The composite measure declined from 52.4 in January to 51.0 in February, and in general, manufacturing activity has decelerated over the course of the past year, down from 55.1 in February 2015. On the positive side, new orders (down from 53.6 to 51.7), output (down from 53.2 to 51.3) and employment (down from 52.8 to 51.5) expanded somewhat, just not as far as we might prefer, with the rate of growth slowing in February for each. On the other hand, exports (down from 51.1 to 49.1) returned to negative territory after two months of progress, a sign of just how much the stronger dollar and weaknesses abroad have dampened international demand and overall sentiment. Read More

Markit: U.S. Manufacturing Activity Grew at its Slowest Pace in More than Two Years

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Activity grew at its slowest pace in more than two years, according to the most recent Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI. The composite measure fell from 52.8 in November to 51.3 in December, its lowest level since October 2013. New orders (down from 53.1 to 50.5) and output (down from 54.8 to 52.7) each eased for the month, with sales expanding just barely. On the other hand, exports (up from 49.4 to 50.5) returned to positive territory after contracting in the prior month, and hiring (up from 52.7 to 53.0) picked up modestly. Stronger labor market data possibly provide some reassurance for a sector that has seen virtually no job gains since January.

Meanwhile, the news was even more encouraging in Europe. The Markit Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI edged up from 52.8 to 53.1, its highest point since April 2014. More importantly, new orders (up from 53.4 to 54.0), output (up from 53.9 to 54.4) and exports (up from 52.8 to 53.0) each continuing moving in the right direction, notching up decent expansions in key indicators. Employment (down from 51.9 to 51.8) slowed a bit, but the underlying trend on the jobs front reflects a positive trend over the longer term. These data reflect slightly accelerated activity in Germany (up from 52.9 to 53.0), its highest level since August, and France (up from 51.0 to 51.4).

Markit: U.S. Manufacturing Activity Eased to a Two-Year Low in November

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After rebounding somewhat in October, activity pulled back again in November, according the most recent Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data. The composite measure declined from 54.1 in October to 52.6 in November, its lowest level since October 2013. The headline index peaked for the year at 55.7 in March, with activity decelerating since then. Exports (down from 51.6 to 49.5) returned to negative territory in November, a sign of just how much the stronger dollar and weaknesses abroad have dampened international demand and overall sentiment. Other indices reflected slower growth for the month, even as there continued to be modest expansions in activity. This included new orders (down from 55.5 to 53.1), output (down from 55.4 to 54.6) and employment (down from 52.9 to 51.9). Read More

Markit: U.S. Manufacturing Activity Rose to a 5-Month High in October

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Activity rebounded in October in the United States, with the Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI jumping to its highest level since May. The composite measure rose from 53.1 in September to 54.0 in October, boosted by stronger output growth (up from 53.7 to 54.0) and a shift to slightly positive exports (up from 49.8 to 50.6). At the same time, new orders (down from 54.7 to 54.0) and employment (down from 52.2 to 51.4) both eased a bit for the month. These data suggest modest growth in demand and production for manufacturers in the U.S., even as the rate of growth for each remains slower than what was observed in the spring. The headline index peaked at 55.7 in March year-to-date, with the output index measuring a fairly robust 58.2 that month, but activity has decelerated since then on a number of global economic headwinds. Read More

Markit: China’s Manufacturing Sector Slowed Once More, Down to its Lowest Level Since March 2009

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The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing PMI declined from 47.8 in July to 47.1 in August, its lowest level since March 2009. The Chinese manufacturing sector continues to struggle, with its PMI data contracting for the sixth consecutive month. Manufacturing activity was down across-the-board, including new orders (down from 47.2 to 46.3), output (down from 47.1 to 46.6), exports (down from 46.9 to 46.0) and employment (down from 47.2 to 46.0). The new orders figure was also at a post-recessionary low. Indeed, a number of economic statistics continue to reflect decelerating activity levels, particularly relative to the paces observed earlier in the year or last year. These include industrial production, fixed asset investments and retail sales. With that in mind, the Bank of China has devalued the yuan, down 2.9 percent in the past two weeks, and the Shanghai Composite Stock Market Index has plummeted more than 32 percent since June 12. Such sharp moves have prompted growth worries in financial markets around the world. Read More

Markit: Chinese Manufacturing Activity Slipped Further into Negative Territory in July

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The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.4 in June to 48.2 in July, its lowest level since April 2014. Chinese manufacturing activity has now contracted in 7 of the past 8 months, continuing a deceleration trend in that nation’s economy. Indeed, all of the PMI subcomponents were in negative territory in July, with most of them slipping further. This included new orders (down from 50.3 to 48.1), output (down from 49.7 to 47.3) and exports (down from 50.3 to 46.6), with domestic and foreign demand declining once again after stabilizing slightly in June. Employment (up from 46.6 to 47.4) fell at a slower pace for the month, and yet, hiring has now decreased in 27 of the past 28 months. These data are consistent with recent economic indicators from China, which have reflected slower growth, particularly relative to the rates experienced at the end of last year or earlier. Read More

Monday Economic Report – June 29, 2015

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Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Last week, there were several reminders that the manufacturing sector has not recovered fully from economic weaknesses earlier in the year, even as business leaders remain cautiously optimistic about activity in the coming months. Durable goods orders declined 1.8 percent in May, extending April’s 1.5 percent decrease. Much of this softness stemmed from reduced aircraft sales, with orders excluding transportation modestly higher. Nonetheless, durable goods demand has been quite weak for much of the past year. On the positive side, we would expect stronger durable goods orders in the June data, with the recent Paris Air Show lifting aircraft sales, and the broader measure, which excludes transportation, has edged marginally higher over the past three months. We hope that this is the start of a rebound. Read More

Markit: Eurozone Manufacturers Report Fastest Growth since April 2014

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The Markit Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI increased from 52.2 in May to 52.5 in June, its fastest pace of growth since April 2014. (The composite measure, which adds in services, rose to a 49-month high.) For manufacturers, output (up from 53.3 to 53.5) and employment (up from 51.6 to 52.0) both edged higher, with each expanding modestly. At the same time, there were slight easings for new orders (down from 52.7 to 52.5) and exports (down from 53.2 to 52.6). Nonetheless, the underlying story is a positive one, with Europe making significant progress in recent months and brushing off possible risks from Greece. With that said, robust growth continues to be elusive, with real GDP up 0.4 percent in the first quarter and industrial production up just 0.1 percent in April. On a year-over-year basis, the Eurozone grew 1.0 percent, with industrial output up 0.8 percent. Read More