Tag: Markit PMI

Monday Economic Report – June 29, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Last week, there were several reminders that the manufacturing sector has not recovered fully from economic weaknesses earlier in the year, even as business leaders remain cautiously optimistic about activity in the coming months. Durable goods orders declined 1.8 percent in May, extending April’s 1.5 percent decrease. Much of this softness stemmed from reduced aircraft sales, with orders excluding transportation modestly higher. Nonetheless, durable goods demand has been quite weak for much of the past year. On the positive side, we would expect stronger durable goods orders in the June data, with the recent Paris Air Show lifting aircraft sales, and the broader measure, which excludes transportation, has edged marginally higher over the past three months. We hope that this is the start of a rebound. (continue reading…)

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Markit: Eurozone Manufacturers Report Fastest Growth since April 2014

The Markit Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI increased from 52.2 in May to 52.5 in June, its fastest pace of growth since April 2014. (The composite measure, which adds in services, rose to a 49-month high.) For manufacturers, output (up from 53.3 to 53.5) and employment (up from 51.6 to 52.0) both edged higher, with each expanding modestly. At the same time, there were slight easings for new orders (down from 52.7 to 52.5) and exports (down from 53.2 to 52.6). Nonetheless, the underlying story is a positive one, with Europe making significant progress in recent months and brushing off possible risks from Greece. With that said, robust growth continues to be elusive, with real GDP up 0.4 percent in the first quarter and industrial production up just 0.1 percent in April. On a year-over-year basis, the Eurozone grew 1.0 percent, with industrial output up 0.8 percent. (continue reading…)

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Global Manufacturing Economic Update – June 11, 2015

Here is the summary for this month’s Global Manufacturing Economic Update: 

There continue to be mixed assessments of the economy, including from reports released last week. For instance, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowered its forecasts to 2.0 percent growth for the United States, with the global economy growing just 3.1 percent. This fell from the 3.1 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, seen in its November 2014 outlook. It also mirrors the downgrade of the National Association of Business Economists’ (NABE) estimated U.S. growth this year, from 3.1 percent in the March survey to 2.4 percent now. Business leaders were also less upbeat in the latest National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, with the headline index down from 59.9 in the first quarter to 51.7 in the second quarter. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – May 26, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

The minutes of the April 28–29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting highlighted the nuance that many of us see in the economy right now. The Federal Reserve highlighted a number of challenges facing consumers and businesses in the early months of 2015, noting how these headwinds have dampened overall activity year-to-date. On the other hand, the FOMC felt that slowing economic growth was largely due to “transitory factors,” with its outlook mostly unchanged for the rest of this year. The Federal Reserve projects growth of 2.3 to 2.7 percent in 2015, and it expects the unemployment rate to fall to 5.0 to 5.2 percent.   (continue reading…)

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Markit: U.S. Manufacturing Activity Slowed in May; Europe Improved, but China Contracted Once More

The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI declined from 54.1 in April to 53.8 in May, easing to its lowest level since October 2013. It was the second straight monthly deceleration in manufacturing activity, and the slowing in May reflected slower growth in new orders (down from 55.3 to 54.2) and output (down from 55.3 to 55.0). Exports (up from 48.8 to 49.6) continued to contract, but declined by less for the month. On the positive side, hiring (up from 53.7 to 54.3) accelerated to its fastest rate in six months. Moreover, even with some weakening in sentiment, the measures for demand and production growth for U.S. manufacturers remains decent overall. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – April 27, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Durable goods orders jumped 4.0 percent in March, which should be a sign that the sector was growing strongly and rebounding from recent softness. Instead, strong aircraft and motor vehicle sales in the month masked broader weaknesses behind the surface. Excluding transportation equipment orders, durable goods sales dropped 0.2 percent for the month and have edged lower across the past six months. Durable goods shipments were somewhat more encouraging on a year-over-year basis, up 3.7 percent, but they have been essentially flat since September. (continue reading…)

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Markit: Slower Manufacturing Data in China, Europe and the U.S. in April

Manufacturing activity in China contracted for the fourth time in the past five months, according to preliminary data from Markit. The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.6 in March to 49.2 in April, its lowest level in 12 months. The decline stemmed largely from reduced domestic demand, with the new orders index down from 49.3 to 49.2. The employment index (up from 47.4 to 48.0) has now reflected contracting levels of hiring for 20 straight months. On the positive side, new export orders (up from 49.0 to 50.6) shifted to a slight expansion in April, and output (down from 50.8 to 50.4) expanded ever-so slightly, albeit at a slower pace this month. (continue reading…)

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Global Manufacturing Economic Update – April 17, 2015

Here is the summary for this month’s Global Manufacturing Economic Update: 

The global economic environment remains challenged, even as it continues to experience modest growth overall. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI, for instance, observed the highest production levels since August. Yet, the overall pace of expansion has clearly eased over the past few months. Along those lines, manufacturers in half of the top 10 markets for goods manufactured in the United States reported declining levels of activity in March, up from just two countries in February. Three Asian economies shifted into contraction territory for the month: China, Hong Kong and South Korea. In addition, Brazil and Canada remained challenged, with the latter struggling on lower crude oil prices. Manufacturing in the emerging markets also stagnated in March, with weaknesses in a number of nations counteracting progress in others. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – March 30, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

As we have seen in past weeks, economic data continue to reflect dampened activity in the early months of 2015 as a result of a number of significant headwinds. These challenges range from weak economic growth abroad, to a significantly strengthened U.S. dollar, to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. Weather and the West Coast ports slowdown have also been relevant factors in some of the softness that we have seen in the reports released since December. As a result, the first quarter is likely to grow around 1.8 percent. This would be less than the 2.2 percent growth rate in real GDP seen during the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, I am predicting 2.8 percent growth in real GDP in 2015, reflecting a slight deceleration in my outlook for the year. The expectation is that we will see some rebounds moving forward, with manufacturers continuing to be more upbeat about the coming months, even with some challenges likely to continue. (continue reading…)

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Markit: Chinese Manufacturing Activity Declined Again

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI reflected reduced activity again, down from 50.7 in February to 49.2 in March. It has contracted in three of the past four months now, reflecting a decelerated rate of growth in China. China has reduced its target real GDP growth rate for 2015 to 7 percent. New orders (down from 50.4 to 49.3), exports (up from 47.1 to 49.0) and employment (down from 49.3 to 47.0) were all below 50 in March – the threshold signifying growth. It was the reduction in demand that pushed the headline index lower. On the positive side, output (unchanged at 50.8) continues to expand very modestly for the month, and the decrease in input prices (up from 42.2 to 44.7) have helped manufacturers in terms of costs, even as the rate of decline was less in March. (continue reading…)

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