Tag: Kansas City Fed

Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Activity Has Declined for Six Straight Months

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity in its district has declined for six straight months. The composite index of general business conditions edged lower, down from -7 in July to -9 in August, with this measure in solid negative territory since March. Overall, manufacturers continue to report contracting levels of activity, with reduced crude oil prices, the strong dollar and weaknesses abroad pressuring the sector’s performance. Indeed, various measures of activity were negative across-the-board. This included new orders (down from -6 to -9), production (down from -5 to -16), shipments (down from -2 to -15) and exports (up from -10 to -4). Exports have now declined for eight consecutive months. (continue reading…)

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Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Activity Declined for the Fifth Straight Month in July

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity declined for the fifth straight month in July, albeit at a slower pace than in either May or June. The composite index of general business conditions increased from -13 in May to -9 in June to -7 in July. Overall, manufacturers continue to report contracting levels of activity, with reduced crude oil prices, the strong dollar and weaknesses abroad pressuring the sector’s performance. Indeed, various measures of activity were negative across-the-board, even with some of them showing a slower rate of decline for the month. This included new orders (down from -3 to -6), production (up from -21 to -5), shipments (up from -15 to -2) and exports (down from -5 to -10). Exports have now declined for seven consecutive months. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – June 29, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Last week, there were several reminders that the manufacturing sector has not recovered fully from economic weaknesses earlier in the year, even as business leaders remain cautiously optimistic about activity in the coming months. Durable goods orders declined 1.8 percent in May, extending April’s 1.5 percent decrease. Much of this softness stemmed from reduced aircraft sales, with orders excluding transportation modestly higher. Nonetheless, durable goods demand has been quite weak for much of the past year. On the positive side, we would expect stronger durable goods orders in the June data, with the recent Paris Air Show lifting aircraft sales, and the broader measure, which excludes transportation, has edged marginally higher over the past three months. We hope that this is the start of a rebound. (continue reading…)

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Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Activity Declined for the Fourth Straight Month in June

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity declined for the fourth straight month in June, albeit at a slower pace than in May. The composite index of general business conditions increased from -13 in May to -9 in June. The slower decline for the headline measure stemmed largely from an easing in the decrease of new orders (up from -19 to -3). Still, it is hard to paint this report in a positive manner, with continued sluggishness across the board. For instance, the rate of production weakened even further (down from -13 to -21), with shipments (down from -9 to -15), employment (up from -17 to -9) and exports (up from -9 to -5) all solidly in contraction. Exports have been negative for six consecutive months. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – May 26, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

The minutes of the April 28–29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting highlighted the nuance that many of us see in the economy right now. The Federal Reserve highlighted a number of challenges facing consumers and businesses in the early months of 2015, noting how these headwinds have dampened overall activity year-to-date. On the other hand, the FOMC felt that slowing economic growth was largely due to “transitory factors,” with its outlook mostly unchanged for the rest of this year. The Federal Reserve projects growth of 2.3 to 2.7 percent in 2015, and it expects the unemployment rate to fall to 5.0 to 5.2 percent.   (continue reading…)

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Kansas City Fed Reported Contracting Activity for the Third Consecutive Month in May

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in May. The composite index dropped from -7 in April to -13 in May, suggesting a sharper drop in activity than the month before. Indeed, several of the key data points declined at faster rates in May than in April. This included new orders (down from -12 to -19), production (down from -2 to -13), shipments (down from -7 to -9) and the average workweek (down from -10 to -14). At the same time, employment (up from -18 to -17) decreased sharply, and exports (up from -12 to -9) contracted for the fifth straight month, even as both measures fell at slightly slower paces for the month. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – April 27, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Durable goods orders jumped 4.0 percent in March, which should be a sign that the sector was growing strongly and rebounding from recent softness. Instead, strong aircraft and motor vehicle sales in the month masked broader weaknesses behind the surface. Excluding transportation equipment orders, durable goods sales dropped 0.2 percent for the month and have edged lower across the past six months. Durable goods shipments were somewhat more encouraging on a year-over-year basis, up 3.7 percent, but they have been essentially flat since September. (continue reading…)

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Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Sentiment Fell Further in April

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing sentiment fell further in April, contracting for the second straight month. The composite index of general business conditions declined from -4 in March to -7 in April. The sample comments tick off a number of challenges for manufacturers in the district, including the strong U.S. dollar, lower crude oil prices, continuing logistics problems from the West Coast ports slowdown and global competition. The index for new export orders (down from -9 to -12) was negative for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the dollar’s strength and weaknesses abroad. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – March 30, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

As we have seen in past weeks, economic data continue to reflect dampened activity in the early months of 2015 as a result of a number of significant headwinds. These challenges range from weak economic growth abroad, to a significantly strengthened U.S. dollar, to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. Weather and the West Coast ports slowdown have also been relevant factors in some of the softness that we have seen in the reports released since December. As a result, the first quarter is likely to grow around 1.8 percent. This would be less than the 2.2 percent growth rate in real GDP seen during the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, I am predicting 2.8 percent growth in real GDP in 2015, reflecting a slight deceleration in my outlook for the year. The expectation is that we will see some rebounds moving forward, with manufacturers continuing to be more upbeat about the coming months, even with some challenges likely to continue. (continue reading…)

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Kansas City Fed: Reduced Manufacturing Activity in March

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity declined in March, contracting for the first time in 12 months. The composite index of general business conditions declined from 1 in February to -4 in March. Perhaps more worrisome, the decline in new orders accelerated (down from -10 to -20), falling for the third straight month. The sample comments provide clues about why this is the case, with respondents noting a number of headwinds impacting their demand. These include snowstorms, reduced crude oil prices, the stronger U.S. dollar and the West Coast ports slowdown. (continue reading…)

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