Tag: Kansas City Fed

Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Activity Expanded at a Slower Rate in June

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity expanded at a slower rate in June; nonetheless, growth was positive for the sixth straight month. The composite index of general business activity fell from 10 in May to 6 in June. Several indicators eased for the month, including production (down from 14 to 2), shipments (down from 5 to 2), new orders (down from 11 to 8) and the average workweek (down from 14 to 7). To illustrate this, 34 percent of respondents said that their production had increased In June, down from 40 percent in May.

The largest negative in the report was exports (down from 6 to -11), with 16 percent of those taking the survey suggesting that their international sales had fallen in June. In addition, hiring (down from 10 to 1) slowed to a crawl, with 23 percent suggesting that they had added employees but 17 percent noting declines.

Still, there continue to be some encouraging signs for the months ahead, albeit with somewhat weaker sentiment than earlier data. The forward-looking composite index has edged down from 21 in April to 13 in May to 12 in June. Yet, at least 35 percent of survey respondents anticipate sales, shipments, and output to be higher six months from now, and 28 percent plan to add workers. Capital spending (up from 19 to 23) was expected to pick up slightly. Pricing pressures declined a bit for the month, but remain elevated with 48 percent of survey-takers anticipating increased raw material costs ahead.

Several of the sample comments noted workforce challenges. As one manufacturer put it, “It is not so much a question of short supply of workers, but rather a question of workers who are reliable and possess a strong work ethic.” Others noted the limited availability of possible employees with the right skills in their community and challenges with competition for workers in terms of compensation.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers. 

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Monday Economic Report – May 27, 2014

Here is a summary of this week’s Monday Economic Report:

The Federal Reserve made little news at its April 29–30 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, mostly mirroring the observations and policy actions taken at its March meeting. Yet, the latest minutes do give us a glimpse of how the Federal Reserve sees the economy as well as its thinking about future policy actions. For instance, participants spent much time discussing “monetary policy normalization,” or the exit strategy from recent stimulative actions. With quantitative easing winding down by the fall and with short-term interest rates expected to rise sometime in 2015, the Federal Reserve has begun to contemplate “the combination of policy tools that might be used to accomplish those objectives.” Moreover, it stressed the need to communicate its plans effectively to the markets and the public well before taking any actions. In essence, including a discussion of normalization in the minutes was a first step in such communications.

Regarding economic trends, the Federal Reserve noted recent improvements in activity since winter storms wreaked havoc earlier in the year. It observed that “business contacts in many parts of the country were generally optimistic about economic prospects,” and there were signs of increased capital spending and hiring as well as stronger demand for loans. Indeed, the manufacturing surveys released last week tend to echo these sentiments. For instance, the Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 55.4 in April to 56.2 in May. The increase stemmed largely from higher production growth, with the output index up from 58.2 to 59.6, the fastest pace since February 2011. Likewise, the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank reported that manufacturing new orders and production have been much stronger since March, leading to a renewed desire to add more workers.

However, not all of the news out last week was positive. The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s National Activity Index (NAI) found that the U.S. economy grew below its historical average in April. The reduction in manufacturing production was a large factor in the NAI’s decrease for the month. Weaker industrial production numbers were also a drag on the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) in April. Despite this, the long-term trend for both of these measures is a relatively optimistic one. For instance, the overall headline figure for the LEI expanded in each of the past three months, with 2.9 percent growth in the past six months. This should bode well for future activity.

Housing was a positive contributor in April in each of the above reports; however, the residential market remains a challenge. Improvements in housing starts and permits boosted sentiment, and there were increases in both existing and new home sales in April. Still, the housing market remains weaker today than it was several months ago. Existing home sales, for example, have dropped 13.6 percent since peaking in November, and new single-family sales have declined 3.9 percent since January. Even with these challenges, we remain cautiously optimistic about the housing market for the coming months, but will watch it closely in light of higher mortgage rates on the horizon.

On the international front, the HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI has shown contracting activity levels for five straight months, with economic growth decelerating of late. The good news, however, was that there were signs of this beginning to stabilize in the May data, with new orders, exports and production shifting to slight gains for the month. The overall PMI figure remains just shy of being neutral, and even though downside risks to growth remain, perhaps we will begin to see some expansion again in the June data. Likewise, Japan’s economy appears to be stabilizing after the imposition of higher taxes in April, but manufacturing activity has now contracted for two straight months. Meanwhile, manufacturers in Europe continue to reflect improvements in demand and output relative to this time last year, but the Markit Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI declined from 53.4 in March to 52.5 in April, reflecting some easing in the most recent data.

This week, much of the focus will be on revisions to real GDP growth for the first quarter. The original estimate was for just 0.1 percent growth, with weather and weaker activity bringing the economy to a crawl. Forecasts for this revision reflect newer data produced since then and hinge on whether activity rebounded enough in March to warrant an increase. Other highlights include the latest data on consumer confidence, durable goods orders, personal income and spending and manufacturing surveys from the Dallas and Richmond Federal Reserve Banks.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers. 

new and existing home sales - may2014

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Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Activity Accelerated in May

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity accelerated in May, continuing stronger growth seen since March. The composite index of general business activity increased from 7 in April to 10 in May, matching its level from March. This suggests that the sector has mostly rebounded from challenges related to winter storms earlier in the year. Indeed, the production index has averaged 16 over the past three months (March to May), a nice pickup from the -6 average in the three months prior to that (December to February). A similar rebound was seen for new orders.

On the labor front, the rebound in demand and output has led to a renewed desire to add new workers (up from 3 to 10), with just over one-quarter of respondents saying that their increased their employment levels for the month. Similarly, the average workweek also widened (up from 6 to 14) and production picked up. Regarding workforce development, several of the sample comments discussed difficulties in attracting and retaining employees. They suggest some tightness in the labor markets for some fields and the need to spend more on training for existing and prospective workers.

If there were any weaknesses, it would be growth in export sales (down from 0 to -3), which have contracted in 7 of the past 12 months. Meanwhile, pricing pressures have risen, with the index for the cost of raw materials increasing from 16 in March to 21 in April to 28 in May. Looking ahead six months, 54 percent of those taking the survey anticipate input costs to rise, with 37 percent planning for them to remain the same.

Fortunately, manufacturers in the Kansas City Fed district remained mostly positive about the coming months, even if the overall forward-looking measure eased for the month (down from 21 to 13). Still, nearly half of the respondents expect new orders and shipments to increase over the next six months, with roughly one-third planning to hire more workers and invest in new capital equipment.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers. 

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Monday Economic Report – April 28, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Manufacturers contributed $2.14 trillion in value-added output in the fourth quarter of 2013, according to new real GDP data by industry from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. For the first time, the government is releasing this information on a quarterly basis, allowing us to get a better sense of which sectors have had the largest impacts to real GDP in any given quarter. After bottoming out at $1.69 trillion in the second quarter of 2009, manufacturers’ value-added output has bounced back. Overall, the manufacturing sector makes up 12.5 percent of real GDP and has made outsized contributions to output since the end of the recession. For instance, in 2013, manufacturers added 0.40 percentage points to the 1.9 percent growth rate in real GDP, or just more than 21 percent.

This week, we will get our first glimpse of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2014. Winter storms and weak export sales are expected to take a toll, with consensus expectations around 1.5 percent. With weather-related softness abating as temperatures have started to warm up, we have seen a rebound in activity in many key manufacturing indicators in March, potentially boosting economic growth in the first quarter. I estimate real GDP growth of around 1.8 percent.

Several figures released last week support the notion that manufacturing has begun to recover from softness earlier in the year. For instance, the Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reported that production in April was at its highest level since March 2011, with relatively strong growth in new orders. This was true despite some slight easing in the overall PMI figure. Likewise, manufacturing surveys from the Kansas City and Richmond Federal Reserve Banks also found rebounds in activity, and respondents remain mostly optimistic about the next six months. In the Kansas City Federal Reserve report, nearly half of respondents anticipate increased orders, shipments and production in the coming months, and more than one-third plan to bring on new workers and to invest in more capital spending. New durable goods orders for March were also quite positive across the board, rising 2.6 percent for the month and a healthy 9.1 percent year-over-year.

Such news has helped to lift spirits. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.8 percent in March, extending February’s 0.5 percent gain. This was the fastest pace since November, with better production data boosting the increase. In general, the index’s findings were supportive of a growing economy over the coming months. Americans, by and large, have also become more confident. The University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters reported that consumer sentiment rose to its highest point since July 2013, with its headline index rising from 80.0 in March to 84.1 in April. As such, it indicates that Americans’ attitudes have recovered slowly after falling during the government shutdown.

Still, it has not been all good news on the economic front. One area of concern was growth in manufacturing activity in China, which has now contracted for four straight months. Yet, the pace of the decline slowed, with the HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI up from 48.0 in March to 48.3 in April. The data largely mirrored the recent deceleration in other economic indicators, including China’s real GDP falling from an annualized 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 to 7.4 percent in the first quarter of 2014. Despite the weaknesses, one could put a positive spin on the slightly better—but still contracting—levels of new orders and output. On the other hand, exports have now contracted in four of the past six months, negatively impacting overall manufacturing sentiment.

The other worry was sluggish housing growth. New single-family home sales plummeted, down 14.5 percent in March and off 13.3 percent year-over-year. Higher interest rates are likely a factor. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported significant declines in mortgage applications over the past year, largely for refinancings. At the same time, the number of new mortgages has also stalled. With new home sales down, the supply of new homes for sale has soared from 4.8 months in January to 6.0 months in March. Meanwhile, existing home sales have been soft all year.

In addition to real GDP, other economic highlights this week include new manufacturing surveys from the Institute for Supply Management and the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank and the latest data on construction spending, factory orders and personal income and spending. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue tapering, reducing its monthly purchases of long-term and mortgage-backed securities from $55 billion to $45 billion. On Friday, we will get new jobs numbers for April, with modest gains in manufacturing employment expected and nonfarm payrolls expanding around 200,000.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

contributions to real GDP - apr2014

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Kansas City Manufacturers Noted Continued, but Slower, Expansion in April

Manufacturers in the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank’s region noted expansion for the fourth straight month in April, albeit more slowly than in March. The composite index of business activity declined from 10 to 7 for the month, with easing observed in other key variables, as well.

For instance, the index for production declined from 22 in March to 12 in April. Still, one should not over-interpret this decline, as March’s figure was a strong rebound from winter-related softness observed from December to February. The positive news was that 38 percent of survey respondents reported increased output in April, with 17 percent noting decreases. Likewise, new orders (down from 13 to 9) and shipments (down from 16 to 14) were still encouraging despite the decelerated figures in April. One downside in the report was exports, which stagnated.

On the employment front, the average workweek extended somewhat (up from 3 to 6) and hiring moved from being flat to small net increases (up from zero to 3). Yet, the sample comments make it clear that manufacturers in the District continue to struggle to recruit new talent. “We are challenged finding good people with the right skill sets,” one individual wrote.

Regarding the longer-term outlook, manufacturing leaders in the Kansas City Fed area continue to be mostly optimistic about the next six months. Nearly half of them anticipate increased orders, shipments, and production in the coming months, and over one-third plan to bring on new workers and to invest in more capital spending.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

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Monday Economic Report – March 31, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

The U.S. economy grew 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter, according to the most recent revision, and for 2013 as a whole, real GDP growth was a rather lackluster 1.9 percent. Consumer spending, business investment and net exports were bright spots in the fourth quarter, with reduced government spending subtracting nearly one percentage point from growth.

Meanwhile, business economists predict real GDP growth of 2.8 percent on average for 2014, with 1.9 percent growth in the current quarter. (My own forecast is marginally higher for both, up 3.0 percent for the year and 2.1 percent for the first quarter of 2014.) Weather-related slowdowns account for the deceleration in activity, particularly for manufacturers, in the current quarter. However, modest growth is expected to resume once temperatures warm up, and we have already begun to see that. The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Outlook Survey also suggested that the industry should grow 3.2 percent in 2014 and 3.4 percent in 2015, which would indicate a pickup from the current pace.

The latest manufacturing surveys show a rebound in sentiment after softness from December to February. The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slowed a bit, down from 57.1 in February to 55.5 in March. Despite the lower figure, new orders and production growth continued to grow relatively strongly, with overall manufacturing activity improved from January’s winter storms. A similar recovery was seen in regional data from the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, mirroring the findings from New York and Philadelphia the week before. Still, not everyone has seen improvements yet. The Richmond Federal Reserve reported lackluster growth in sales and output, with weather continuing to “wreak havoc” for many manufacturers. In addition, while new durable goods orders were up a strong 2.2 percent in February, sales growth increased at the less-than-robust rate of just 0.2 percent when transportation orders were excluded.

On the consumer front, the data were mostly positive, but with some caveats. Personal income and spending both increased 0.3 percent in February, with each rising 3.0 percent over the past 12 months. This was a decent pace, but increased purchases of nondurable goods and services mainly fueled spending growth in February. Durable goods spending declined for the third month in a row. In terms of consumer confidence, the two reports out last week were mixed. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer sentiment reached a six-year high; yet, labor market worries dampened enthusiasm for the current environment. Likewise, the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters reported that consumer sentiment edged lower in March, with employment and income growth also weighing on respondents’ minds. In both surveys, however, Americans are more confident today than in the fall during the government shutdown.

Looking overseas, Markit released preliminary manufacturing PMI data for China and the Eurozone. Chinese manufacturing activity has now contracted for three consecutive months, with March’s pace being the slowest since July. The data mirror other recent indicators, including industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales, which have slowed. As such, they all suggest that real GDP might fall below the 7.7 percent rate in the fourth quarter. (First-quarter real GDP for China will be released on April 15.) Meanwhile, European manufacturers have seen expanding activity levels for nine straight months, even as Eurozone PMI values eased slightly in March. New orders and production remain strong in Germany, and, of note, French manufacturers were positive in their sentiment for the first time since June 2011.

This week, the focus will be on the March jobs numbers, which will come out on Friday. The consensus expectation is for nonfarm payroll growth of around 190,000, with manufacturers hiring somewhere near the 12,000 average experienced in the sector since August. In addition, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is expected to show a slight rebound in manufacturing PMI activity in its March data, up from 53.2 in February. Other highlights this week include the latest data on construction spending, factory orders and international trade.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

gdp forecast - mar2014

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Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Activity Picked Up in March

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity picked up in March, expanding for the third straight month. The composite index of general business activity rose from 4 in February to 10 in March. This was the highest point since February 2012. The largest increase was in the production index, which increased from 3 to 22. Indeed, the percentage of survey respondents who said that their output had declined in the month fell from 28 percent in February to 11 percent in March. This improvement was likely the result of better weather, which caused a number of delays in production in the previous report.

In terms of other indicators, there was also notable progress for new orders (up from 5 to 13), shipments (up from 10 to 16), and exports (up from -1 to 6). As with the production index above, the shifts were largely due to fewer people saying that there were decreases. For instance, 39 percent of those taking the survey said that their new orders had increased in the month (up from 35 percent last month); whereas, 14 percent noted decreased sales (down from 24 percent).

Hiring was one area where weaknesses remain. The index for the number of employees declined has declined from 11 in January to 3 in February to zero in March. Two-thirds of respondents said that their employment levels were unchanged, with the other answers nearly split equally. Moreover, looking ahead six months, employment growth was also only barely positive on net, unlike in several other regional surveys.

Fortunately, other forward-looking measures are more upbeat. Nearly half of those taking the survey anticipate increased production, shipments, and new orders over the next six months. Roughly one-quarter of survey participants said that they plan to increase capital spending, with 15 percent anticipating declines. One other finding that was surprisingly soft was export growth, with just 11 percent of Kansas City Fed manufacturers saying that they expect increased international sales. Hopefully, this figure improves in coming months.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

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Monday Economic Report – March 3, 2014

Here is the summary of this week’s Monday Economic Report:

The U.S. economy grew 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter, down from the earlier estimate of 3.2 percent. Given some of the recent weaker manufacturing, retail and housing data, the downward revision was largely expected. Still, there are some positives in the report, with strength in consumer spending, business investment and net exports. Fixed investment was higher in this revision, which was welcome news. Federal government spending accounted for the biggest drag on growth during the fourth quarter, subtracting one percentage point from the total figure.

The bottom line is that real GDP increased 3.3 percent in the second half of 2013, providing some momentum for growth moving into this year. While weather and other factors have dampened the economy recently (and will also reduce real GDP in the current quarter), we still expect 3.0 percent growth for 2014. Manufacturers continue to be mostly upbeat about demand and production over the coming months.

Despite such optimism in the outlook for the year, the current environment for manufacturers clearly has its challenges. Weather has negatively impacted production and shipments in a number of regions around the country, and surveys from the Dallas, Kansas City and Richmond Federal Reserve Banks all observed some easing in activity in February. This followed similar reports from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks the week before. Meanwhile, the Census Bureau has reported lower new durable goods orders for two straight months, with poor weather conditions likely a factor, particularly for auto sales. At the same time, new durable goods orders excluding transportation were higher, suggesting that the broader manufacturing market was slightly better than the headline figure indicated.

Some of the other data remain mixed. New home sales were up sharply in January to their highest level since July 2008, but year-over-year growth was more modest, and inventories of new homes have fallen over the past few months. Nonetheless, the positive report on new home sales stands in contrast to much weaker residential construction figures of late, including housing starts and existing home sales, which have seen negative impacts from the weather. Similarly, the two major reports about consumer confidence moved in opposite directions, with the Conference Board’s measure lower in February and the University of Michigan’s figure edging slightly higher. Doubts about income and labor growth have possibly fed some anxieties in sentiment in both surveys, but the two reports differ in their findings about the economic outlook.

This week, the focus will be on manufacturing activity, employment growth and international trade. We will get February Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) later this morning. After falling from 56.5 in December to 51.3 in January, the ISM PMI is expected to increase modestly, still indicating weaknesses in new orders and production for the month. On the trade front, we will be looking for better manufactured goods exports in 2014, improving on the modest 2.4 percent growth rate seen in 2013. Still, manufactured goods exports hit an all-time high last year, providing a positive for economic growth.

The biggest news of the week will come on Friday with the release of new jobs numbers. Nonfarm payroll growth has been soft over the past two months, with just 75,000 and 113,000 net new workers added in December and January, respectively. The consensus expectation is for roughly 165,000 nonfarm workers added in February. In contrast, manufacturing job gains have been fairly decent over the past six months, averaging 15,500 since August, and we should get modest gains again in February. One of the bigger conversation pieces will be whether the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent in February, which is the rate specified in the Federal Reserve Board’s forward guidance. (Either way, look for the Federal Open Market Committee to change its guidance at its next meeting.) Other highlights this week include the latest data on construction spending, factory orders, personal income and spending and productivity.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

personal consumption - mar2014

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Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Activity Expanded Modestly for the Second Straight Month

Manufacturing activity expanded for the second straight month in the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank district. With that said, the composite index of general business activity eased slightly from 5 in January to 4 in February. The underlying data were largely mixed, but with modest growth overall.

The pace of shipments (up from 3 to 10), production (up from -8 to 3), and the average workweek (up from -6 to 1) improved for the month, but new orders were unchanged at 5. A larger percentage of survey respondents said that their sales were flat in February (39 percent) than those who noted increases (35 percent), with nearly one-quarter observing declines. Export orders contracted barely (down from 4 to -1); whereas, hiring slowed (down from 11 to 3).

The sample comments were equally varied, but more negative than positive. While some manufacturers felt that business was improving, others cited problems due to weather, financing, economic uncertainties, the tax and regulatory environment, and delivery times.

Despite some current challenges, manufacturers in the Kansas City Fed region continued to be cautiously optimistic about the coming months. Nearly half expect shipments and production will be higher six months from now. Moreover, the percentages feeling that new orders, capital spending, and employment levels will be increased in that time frame was 40 percent, 35 percent, and 27 percent, respectively. Still, that positivity wavered somewhat in February, with the forward-looking composite index dropping from 26 to 11.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

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Monday Economic Report – January 27, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

According to the latest data, manufacturers contributed $2.03 trillion to the economy in 2012, or 12.5 percent of GDP. This was up from $1.56 trillion in 2000 and $1.92 trillion in 2011. As such, it suggests that manufacturing remains quite strong in the United States, with output continuing to expand and recovering from the falloff during the recession. In fact, manufacturing in the United States would be the eighth-largest country in the world if you were to compare manufacturing’s contribution with worldwide GDP values. Nations with GDP greater than U.S. manufacturing’s contribution were the United States, China, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Brazil.

Looking at more current data, there were two manufacturing developments of note in the data released last week. First, Chinese manufacturing activity contracted slightly for the first time since July, spooking financial markets. This reduction in the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data stemmed largely from fewer new orders and exports, and it provided fodder for those worried about deceleration in China’s economy. (This also fed anxieties about growth in the emerging markets in general.) Yet, Chinese manufacturing output remained expansionary, albeit at a slower pace than the month before, and production has been positive for six straight months.

The second notable trend was the negative impact of colder weather on U.S. production in January. Both the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s survey and the Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data indicated weaker output for the month, with winter shutdowns cited as one of the causes. We would expect such changes due to poor weather conditions to be temporary, and for the most part, manufacturers in the United States remain mostly upbeat about new orders, shipments, employment and capital spending moving forward. These sentiment surveys, as well as other similar ones, continue to show improvements in manufacturing sales and output since the beginning of the third quarter, with cautiously optimistic expectations for 2014.

Two indicators released last week support this more upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy’s health. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) continued to expand in December, rising 3.4 percent in the second half of 2013. One of the stronger elements in this index was the new orders component, particularly as measured by the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) PMI reports. Similarly, manufacturing was a significant positive contributor to the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s National Activity Index (NAI). This measure has shown strong improvement in the past few months, with overall growth now above its historical trend.

This week will be a much busier one on the economic front. However, much of the focus will be on two separate developments. The first of these will come on Wednesday with the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) release of its monetary policy statement. This will be the last meeting with Ben Bernanke as the Federal Reserve Board chair, and it is widely expected that the FOMC will continue to taper its purchases of long-term assets, probably down from $75 billion each month to $65 billion. Then, on Thursday, we will get our first glimpse of fourth-quarter real GDP growth numbers. The consensus expectation is for growth of at least 2.5 percent in the final quarter of 2013, down from 4.1 percent in the third quarter.

Other highlights for the week include new manufacturing surveys from the Dallas and Richmond Federal Reserve Banks and consumer confidence data from both the Conference Board and the University of Michigan. In addition, we will get the latest updates for new durable goods orders, personal income and spending and state employment.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

manufacturing value-added - jan2014

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