Always on the Sunny Side

Traveling across the country Saturday, we had the opportunity to read local newspaper stories reacting to the ISM’s December Manufacturing Report. Grim.

AP national story, and the New York Times writes, “Manufacturing Reports Show Depth of Global Downturn.” Grim.

Creighton University’s Ernie Goss uses the ISM methodology to rank the economies midwestern states, so here’s that story, “Survey: Recession will worsen in the months ahead,” and the sidebar,”Mid-America survey state-by-state glance.” Grim.

But then, instead of grimmer, a glimmer. From the New York Times, “Some Forecasters See a Fast Economic Recovery“:

In the midst of the deepest recession in the experience of most Americans, many professional forecasters are optimistically heading into the new year declaring that the worst may soon be over.

For this rosy picture to play out, they are counting on the Obama administration and Congress to come through with a substantial stimulus package, at least $675 billion over two years.

They say that will get the economy moving again in the face of persistently weak spending by consumers and businesses, not to mention banks that are reluctant to extend credit.

Even with the conditions, we’ll take the offering of optimism.

On Manufacturing, Not Good News

A glum-inducing report from CNN, “Manufacturing activity at 26-year low“:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — A key index of the nation’s manufacturing activity fell to a 26-year low, sliding into recession territory, according to a purchasing managers group.

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) said Monday that its manufacturing index tumbled to 38.9 in October from 43.5 in September. It was the lowest reading since September 1982, when the index registered 38.8.

The ISM summary is available here. But the section, “What Respondents are Saying” isn’t so dour:

  • “Credit market causing suppliers to run closer on terms.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Appear to be bouncing along the bottom — volume is good but pricing is tough.” (Primary Metals)
  • “Although the volume was down compared to last month, the volume was still higher than last year at the same time.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Hurricane in Houston disrupted production for 10 days at our plant.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Delivery issues continue across our range of purchased commodities as suppliers trim inventory commitments.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

 

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