Tag: exports

Markit: Chinese Manufacturing Activity Slipped Further into Negative Territory in July

The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.4 in June to 48.2 in July, its lowest level since April 2014. Chinese manufacturing activity has now contracted in 7 of the past 8 months, continuing a deceleration trend in that nation’s economy. Indeed, all of the PMI subcomponents were in negative territory in July, with most of them slipping further. This included new orders (down from 50.3 to 48.1), output (down from 49.7 to 47.3) and exports (down from 50.3 to 46.6), with domestic and foreign demand declining once again after stabilizing slightly in June. Employment (up from 46.6 to 47.4) fell at a slower pace for the month, and yet, hiring has now decreased in 27 of the past 28 months. These data are consistent with recent economic indicators from China, which have reflected slower growth, particularly relative to the rates experienced at the end of last year or earlier. (continue reading…)

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ISM: Manufacturing Activity Picked Up Somewhat in June

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index picked up a little in June. The headline PMI increased from 52.8 in May to 53.5 in June, returning to a level last seen in January. As such, this report indicates that manufacturing activity has begun to recover from the softer demand, output and hiring levels experienced earlier in the year, with a number of economic headlines challenging the sector. Still, that does not mean that manufacturers are out of the woods yet, with activity expanding at a slower pace than desired. To illustrate this point, the manufacturing PMI averaged 56.9 in the second half of 2014, but has averaged 52.6 through the first six months of 2015. (continue reading…)

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Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Activity Declined for the Fourth Straight Month in June

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity declined for the fourth straight month in June, albeit at a slower pace than in May. The composite index of general business conditions increased from -13 in May to -9 in June. The slower decline for the headline measure stemmed largely from an easing in the decrease of new orders (up from -19 to -3). Still, it is hard to paint this report in a positive manner, with continued sluggishness across the board. For instance, the rate of production weakened even further (down from -13 to -21), with shipments (down from -9 to -15), employment (up from -17 to -9) and exports (up from -9 to -5) all solidly in contraction. Exports have been negative for six consecutive months. (continue reading…)

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Markit: Eurozone Manufacturers Report Fastest Growth since April 2014

The Markit Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI increased from 52.2 in May to 52.5 in June, its fastest pace of growth since April 2014. (The composite measure, which adds in services, rose to a 49-month high.) For manufacturers, output (up from 53.3 to 53.5) and employment (up from 51.6 to 52.0) both edged higher, with each expanding modestly. At the same time, there were slight easings for new orders (down from 52.7 to 52.5) and exports (down from 53.2 to 52.6). Nonetheless, the underlying story is a positive one, with Europe making significant progress in recent months and brushing off possible risks from Greece. With that said, robust growth continues to be elusive, with real GDP up 0.4 percent in the first quarter and industrial production up just 0.1 percent in April. On a year-over-year basis, the Eurozone grew 1.0 percent, with industrial output up 0.8 percent. (continue reading…)

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Business Economists Downgrade Their Growth Estimates for 2015

The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) said that panelists in its Outlook Survey downgraded their estimates for growth in 2015. Business economists now expect real GDP growth of 2.4 percent this year, down from 3.1 percent in the March survey. This reflects recent headwinds in the U.S. economy, with 80 percent and 72 percent suggesting that a stronger U.S. dollar and slower growth in China, respectively, were having a negative impact on U.S. economic growth. To illustrate this point, the estimates for export growth have declined from 5.4 percent in December to 2.1 percent in the current report.  (continue reading…)

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ISM: Manufacturing Activity Rebounded a Little in May

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rebounded a little from 51.5 in April to 52.8 in May. This was good news, particularly given the softness in this index seen year-to-date. Through the first five months of 2015, the headline index has averaged 52.4, well below the 56.9 average observed in the second half of 2014. This weakness has stemmed from a number of significant headwinds, including the U.S. dollar, lower crude oil prices and the West Coast ports slowdown, among other factors. Still, manufacturers have been cautiously optimistic in their outlook for the coming months, and as such, we would expect some recovery in overall activity for the sector. Hopefully, this is the beginning of a larger upward trend. (continue reading…)

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Kansas City Fed Reported Contracting Activity for the Third Consecutive Month in May

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in May. The composite index dropped from -7 in April to -13 in May, suggesting a sharper drop in activity than the month before. Indeed, several of the key data points declined at faster rates in May than in April. This included new orders (down from -12 to -19), production (down from -2 to -13), shipments (down from -7 to -9) and the average workweek (down from -10 to -14). At the same time, employment (up from -18 to -17) decreased sharply, and exports (up from -12 to -9) contracted for the fifth straight month, even as both measures fell at slightly slower paces for the month. (continue reading…)

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Markit: U.S. Manufacturing Activity Slowed in May; Europe Improved, but China Contracted Once More

The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI declined from 54.1 in April to 53.8 in May, easing to its lowest level since October 2013. It was the second straight monthly deceleration in manufacturing activity, and the slowing in May reflected slower growth in new orders (down from 55.3 to 54.2) and output (down from 55.3 to 55.0). Exports (up from 48.8 to 49.6) continued to contract, but declined by less for the month. On the positive side, hiring (up from 53.7 to 54.3) accelerated to its fastest rate in six months. Moreover, even with some weakening in sentiment, the measures for demand and production growth for U.S. manufacturers remains decent overall. (continue reading…)

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ISM: Headline Number Unchanged at 51.5, but Orders and Production Rebounded a Little

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was unchanged at 51.5 in April. On the positive side, manufacturing activity has continued to expand very modestly, and yet, these data reflect softness in the market seen over the past few months. Six months ago, for instance, the PMI value was 57.9, and this headline number has trended lower since then. Demand and output have shifted into a lower gear on challenges from a stronger U.S. dollar, reduced crude oil prices, residual impacts from the West Coast ports slowdown, and other factors. The sample comments note that these headwinds were top-of-mind for survey respondents in this report. (continue reading…)

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Tens of Thousands of Jobs Depend on Ex-Im Bank Renewal

As Congress continues to debate the future of Ex-Im Bank, it’s clear that a bipartisan majority supports its reauthorization. Over the past few weeks, various Congressional leaders have expressed their support for reauthorization. Today, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) said the expiration of the Ex-Im Bank could cost “thousands of jobs.”  Manufacturers agree and we urge Congress to move quickly to schedule a vote on a long-term reauthorization of Ex-Im Bank. (continue reading…)

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