Tag

economic outlook

Philly Fed: Manufacturing Activity Improved Despite another Contraction in the Composite Index

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that manufacturing sentiment in July contracted for the third time in the past four months (or the ninth time in the past 11 months). The composite index of general business activity declined from 4.7 in June to -2.7 in July. It is likely that post-Brexit worries negatively impacted assessments about the broader economy. Despite a decrease in the headline number, many of the underlying data points improved for the month. For instance, both new orders (up from -3.0 to 11.8) and shipments (up from -2.1 to 6.0) returned to expansion territory in July, which was encouraging. Indeed, the percentage of respondents suggesting that orders had increased for the month rose from 20.6 percent in June to 27.6 percent in July, with those noting declining sales dropping from 23.6 percent to 15.8 percent. Read More

NY Fed: Manufacturing Activity Slowed to a Crawl in July

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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey said that manufacturing activity slowed to a crawl in July after rebounding in June. The composite index of general business conditions declined from 6.0 in June to 0.6 percent in July. On the positive side, the headline index had been -9.0 in May, suggesting some progress over the past couple months even if growth remained less than desired. The underlying data were generally weaker in this report, including new orders (down from 10.9 to -1.8) and shipments (down from 9.3 to 0.7). Nearly 29 percent of respondents in this survey said that orders were higher in July, down from 34.2 percent in June; conversely, the percentage stating decreased orders rose from 23.2 percent to 30.8 percent for the month. The labor market data continued to be discouraging. Hiring (down from zero to -4.4) and the average employee workweek (down from -5.1 to -5.5) were both negative. Read More

NFIB: Small Business Sentiment Edged Up to its Highest Point since December in June

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The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said that sentiment among small business owners edged slightly higher in June. The Small Business Optimism Index increased from 93.8 in May to 94.5 in June, its highest level since December. It marked some continued improvement from March’s two-year low in optimism, even as small firms continue to be concerned about the overall economic outlook. As a sign of this caution, the percentage suggesting that the next three months would be a “good time to expand” inched down from 9 percent to 8 percent, with economic conditions and the political climate cited by those saying that it would not be a good time for expansion. Read More

ISM

ISM: Manufacturing Activity Expanded at Fastest Pace in 16 Months in June

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The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) said that manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in 14 months. The composite index rose from 51.3 in May to 53.2 in June. Strong growth in new orders (up from 55.7 to 57.0) and production (up from 52.6 to 54.7) helped to boost the headline number by more than expected. Notably, exports (up from 52.5 to 53.5) also improved in this report, which was encouraging given recent struggles in increasing demand abroad. More importantly, this was the fourth consecutive month with manufacturing activity expanding, signaling some stabilization in the sector after five months in contraction in the months prior to that. Read More

Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Rebounded in June

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The Conference Board said that consumer sentiment rebounded in June after falling to a six-month low in May. The Consumer Confidence Index rose from 92.4 in May to 98.0 in June, its highest level since September’s 102.6 reading. Americans more upbeat in their assessments of the current (up from 113.2 to 118.3) and future (up from 78.5 to 84.5) economic environment. As such, this stands in contrast to a competing survey from the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters, which found that consumer sentiment pulled back in June and lingering economic anxieties. Comparatively, Americans were more optimistic in their outlook in the Conference Board report, with the percent expecting better business conditions in the next six months rising from 15.0 percent to 16.8 percent.   Read More

regional Fed

Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline in June

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The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity in its district continued to decline in June, falling for the second straight month. The composite index of general business activity decreased from -1 in May to -7 in June, its lowest reading since January 2013. The underlying data reflecting continuing weaknesses across-the-board, even with some easing in the pace of decline for shipments (up from -8 to -3). New orders (down from zero to -14), the backlog of orders (down from -13 to -17), capacity utilization (down from -6 to -10), the average workweek (down from 6 to -4) and hiring (down from 4 to -1) each contracted at a faster rate. It is notable that this report reflected renewed softness in the labor market in June, which had notched some stabilization in May. Read More

Real GDP Growth Improved to 1.1 Percent in the First Quarter

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis said that real GDP grew by 1.1 percent in the first quarter, improving from the prior estimate of 0.8 percent. The revision included better data on nonresidential fixed investment and exports that previously reported, but it also found that consumer spending on services did not grow as fast as once thought either. Nonetheless, the bottom line was largely the same. The U.S. economy experienced relatively sluggish growth in the first quarter thanks to stagnant spending on consumer goods, declining business investment and still-soft export growth, even with improvements in this latest report. Read More

Dallas Fed: Manufacturing Conditions Remained Weak in June

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The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity in its Texas district has now contracted for 18 straight months. The composite index of general business conditions edged somewhat higher, up from -20.8 in May to -18.3 in June, but with sentiment remaining sufficiently negative for the month. Still-low crude oil prices and a strong U.S. dollar continue to hamper economic growth in the region, as noted in the sample comments. Indeed, in a special question, 46.2 percent of respondents said that lower energy prices have had a negative impact on their business, with one-third noting a positive impact and 20.8 percent suggesting no impact.

Looking more specifically at the June data, key indicators were negative across-the-board, even with some of them easing a bit in this report. That included new orders (up from -14.9 to -14.2), production (up from -13.1 to -7.0), shipments (up from -11.5 to -8.6), capacity utilization (up from -11.0 to -9.3), employment (down from -6.7 to -11.5) and capital expenditures (up from -6.6 to -2.1). Just over 34 percent of those completing the survey said that new orders had declined in June, with 19.9 percent stating increased sales and 45.9 percent noting no change. Read More

Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Activity Expanded Slightly for the First Time Since January 2015

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The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity expanded slightly for the first time since January 2015. The composite index of general business conditions rose from -5 in May to 2 in June. New orders (up from -3 to 4), production (up from -11 to 12), shipments (up from -6 to 10) and the average workweek (up from -15 to 1) were all better in this month’s report, with each measure shifting into positive territory after several months of contraction. Yet, it was not all good news, with lingering challenges still present. Along those lines, hiring (up from -13 to -4), the backlog of orders (up from -19 to -3) and exports (up from -8 to -1) continued to decrease, albeit with some easing in June in the rate of decline in this release. In addition, the sample comments suggest that respondents remain cautious in their outlook, stressing ongoing challenges in the marketplace. Read More

Philly Fed: Manufacturing Activity Expanded Somewhat in June, but Growth Remained a Challenge

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that manufacturing activity rebounded in June after contracting in both April and May. The composite index of general business activity rose from -1.8 in May to 4.7 in June. It was only the second time in the past ten months that activity has expanded, highlighting the challenges for the sector seen over much of the past year. The better headline number might have been a more encouraging sign, mirroring data from the New York Fed yesterday, if it were not for the fact that many other key measures in the Philly Fed report were lower. For instance, new orders (down from -1.9 to -3.0), shipments (down from -0.5 to -2.1) and employment (down from -3.3 to -10.9) pulled further into negative territory.  Moreover, the average employee workweek (up from -15.1 to -13.1) continued to shrink at a fairly fast clip, despite a slight easing in the pace of decline in June. Read More