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durable goods

durable-goods

New Durable Goods Orders Continue to Disappoint in September

By | Economy, Shopfloor Economics | No Comments

The Census Bureau said that new durable goods orders continue to disappoint in September. New orders were off 0.1 percent, edging down from $227.6 billion to $227.3 billion. On a year-over-year basis, sales have increased 1.6 percent since September 2015, up from $223.7 billion. However, these data have been skewed by volatility in the transportation equipment segment. In September, transportation equipment orders fell 0.8 percent, largely on reduced activity for defense aircraft and parts. Excluding transportation, new orders for durable goods were up 0.2 percent in September, but over the past 12 months, they were essentially unchanged, down 0.04 percent.

As such, the broader demand for durable goods over the past year remained weak, highlighting ongoing challenges in the sector. Along those lines, core capital goods orders (or nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) declined 1.2 percent in September, with a year-over-year decrease of 4.1 percent. Read More

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Manufacturing Added Less to Real GDP in the First Quarter Than in the Prior Two Quarters

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As noted earlier, the U.S. economy grew by an annualized 1.1 percent in the first quarter, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis has now released data breaking out that growth by industry. In short, real value-added output in the manufacturing sector increased by 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2016, slowing from 2.6 percent and 2.4 percent growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2015, respectively. As a result, manufacturers contributed 0.16 percentage points to headline growth in the first quarter, down from 0.31 percent and 0.29 percent in the prior two quarters.

Looking specifically at manufacturing in the first quarter, real value-added from nondurable goods firms rose 3.8 percent at the annual rate, but durable goods manufacturers saw output decline by 0.6 percent. Therefore, durable and nondurable goods businesses contributed -0.04 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively, to real GDP for the quarter. Read More

durable goods

Strong Aircraft Sales Pushed New Durable Goods Orders Sharply Higher in April

By | Economy, General, Shopfloor Economics | No Comments

The Census Bureau said that new durable goods orders increased 3.4 percent in April, extending the 1.9 percent gain seen in March. Sales of new durable goods orders rose from $228.3 billion in March to $235.9 billion in April. Demand have risen in three of the four months so far in 2016, providing some encouragement for a sector that has experienced its share of softness over the past year. On a year-over-year basis, sales have risen from $231.5 billion in April 2015, an increase of 1.9 percent. Yet, much of that gain came from transportation equipment, particularly aircraft sales. Excluding transportation, new orders for durable goods increased by just 0.4 percent, and over the past 12 months, that figure was down 1.4 percent. This suggests that demand remains somewhat weaker than the headline number would seem to indicate – a sign that durable goods manufacturers continue to be challenged beyond automobiles and aircraft. Read More

durable goods

New Durable Goods Sales Rebounded Somewhat in March, but Weaker Than Expected

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The Census Bureau said that new durable goods orders increased by 0.8 percent in March, rebounding somewhat after the 3.1 percent decline seen in February. This was weaker-than-expected, with a consensus expecting a gain of 1.8 percent. Sales of new durable goods orders rose from $228.9 billion in February to $230.7 billion in March. Overall, demand remains quite soft, with the sector challenged by global headwinds and lingering anxieties in the economic outlook. Order volumes have been highly volatile from month-to-month over the course of the past year, with sales trending lower since peaking in 2015 at $241.0 billion in July. On a year-over-year basis, new durable goods orders have fallen 2.5 percent, down from $236.7 billion in March 2015. Even with transportation equipment sales excluded, year-over-year growth declined by 1.4 percent, with orders down 0.2 percent for the month, highlighting the broad-based softness of demand for durable goods over the past 12 months. Read More

Factory Orders Fell 0.2 Percent in November

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The Census Bureau said that new factory orders declined by 0.2 percent in November, falling for the third time in the past four months. As such, this report was somewhat disappointing, particularly following the 1.3 percent increase observed in October. New manufactured goods orders decreased from $473.1 billion in October to $472.2 billion in November. On a year-over-year basis, new orders have declined by 4.2 percent, down from $493.0 billion in November 2014. This speaks to the multitude of headwinds hitting the manufacturing sector lately, ranging from currency challenges to reduced commodity prices to sluggish economic growth worldwide.

With durable goods sales unchanged for the month, as noted in preliminary data released earlier, orders for nondurable goods were off 0.4 percent in November. With that said, durable goods orders would have been weaker if transportation equipment data were excluded, mainly because of a large decline in nondefense aircraft demand. These numbers can be quite volatile from month-to-month, where sales are often batched together around key events, such as air shows. Excluding transportation, new factory orders were down 0.3 percent. This speaks to broader weaknesses beyond transportation – something that can be better seen in the year-over-year figures. New factory orders excluding transportation have decreased from $416.8 billion in November 2014 to $390.4 billion in this release, off 6.3 percent.
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Manufacturing Productivity Jumped Strongly in the Third Quarter

By | General, Shopfloor Economics | No Comments

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that manufacturing labor productivity jumped 4.9 percent in the third quarter, up from 2.1 percent in the second quarter. It was the fastest quarterly increase in four years, and mostly reflected a modest increase in output (up 2.7 percent) combined with a decline in the number of hours worked (down 2.1 percent). Despite the significant increase in output per hour for all persons working, the decrease in hours worked resulted in a 5.9 percent jump in hourly compensation, and therefore, unit labor costs rose 0.9 percent. In general, we want unit labor costs to fall, as the improvements in efficiency help to make manufacturers more competitive globally. Read More

Factory Orders Rose in June on Strong Aircraft Sales Growth

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The Census Bureau said that new factory orders rose 1.8 percent in June, rebounding from declines in both April and May. Indeed, manufacturers’ new orders have decreased in 9 of the past 11 months, with a number of economic headwinds dampening overall demand. On a year-over-year basis, new orders have declined from $510.1 billion in June 2014 to $478.5 billion in this release, or a decrease of 6.2 percent. In June, the gain stemmed largely from strong aircraft sales growth, with transportation equipment sales up 9.3 percent following declines of 4.0 percent and 6.3 percent in April and May, respectively. Aircraft orders can be volatile from month to month, with sales often batched together around large trade shows, and this latest report reflects numbers from the Paris Air Show. If you were to exclude transportation, new factory orders would have risen by a more modest 0.5 percent. Read More

Industrial Production Unchanged in April

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Manufacturing production was unchanged in April, slowing from the 0.3 percent gain experienced in March. Overall, output in the sector has been very soft for five straight months. Manufacturers have struggled with a number of significant headwinds in the U.S. and global economies, including challenges in growing exports, residual impacts from the West Coast ports slowdown, regional weather challenges and an anxious consumer. As a result, the year-over-year pace has slowed from 4.5 percent in November to 2.3 percent in April.  Similarly, capacity utilization in manufacturing has dropped from 79.8 percent five months ago to 78.2 percent today.

Durable goods production increased 0.1 percent in April, with output for nondurable goods firms off 0.1 percent. There were strong increases for manufacturing production for nonmetallic mineral products (up 1.4 percent), electrical equipment and appliances (up 1.3 percent), motor vehicles and parts (up 1.3 percent) and wood products (up 1.3 percent). However, these were offset by declining output in the machinery (down 0.9 percent), aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment (down 0.6 percent), and food, beverage and tobacco products (down 0.6 percent) sectors, among others. Read More

Durable Goods Orders and Shipments Were Soft in February

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The Census Bureau said that new durable goods orders declined 1.4 percent in February, falling for the fifth time in the past seven months. Much of the decrease in February stemmed from reductions in the demand for transportation equipment, with new orders in that sector down 3.5 percent in February. This included a reduction in sales for motor vehicles and parts (down 0.5 percent for the month) and fewer nondefense and defense aircraft orders (down 8.9 percent and 33.1 percent, respectively). Note that aircraft orders can be quite volatile from month to month, as nondefense aircraft orders had increased 122.2 percent in January. Therefore, we often look at this data by stripping out the transportation equipment sector, and when you do so, durable goods orders decreased by 0.4 percent – still a soft figure. This mirrors other data showing a number of headwinds dampening demand and output in the early months of 2015. Read More

BLS: Manufacturers Have Added Roughly 18,800 Workers per Month Since 2013

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that manufacturers added 22,000 net new workers in January, extending the 26,000 gain observed in December. These data included rather large upward revisions for previous months, and since December 2013, manufacturers have added roughly 18,800 workers per month on average. As such, the manufacturing sector has been making relatively strong gains on the hiring front, with an average of 29,000 over the past four months (October through January). This suggests that momentum in demand and production at the end of 2014 has warranted healthy growth in employment, which is encouraging. Looking at a longer time horizon, manufacturers have added 855,000 workers since 2009. Read More