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durable goods orders

durable goods

New Durable Goods Orders Unchanged in November

By | Economy, Shopfloor Economics | No Comments

The Census Bureau said that new durable goods orders were unchanged in November. With that said, the report also suggested broader weakness in durable goods demand outside of defense aircraft, which jumped 46.9 percent for the month, up from $5.6 billion in October to $8.2 billion in November. Indeed, new orders excluding transportation equipment edged down 0.1 percent in November, with core capital goods spending (or nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) down 0.4 percent. Overall, this report continues a trend of soft growth for the sector, with global challenges and reduced commodity prices dampening demand and production. Since November 2014, new durable goods orders have risen 1.2 percent, but excluding transportation equipment, year-over-year sales were down 1.9 percent.
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Durable Goods Orders Fell for the Second Straight Month in September

By | General, Shopfloor Economics | No Comments

Durable goods orders declined for the second straight month in September, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Census Bureau. New orders fell 1.2 percent in September, extending the 3.0 percent decrease observed in August. At least part of this decline could be explained by reduced nondefense aircraft sales, which have continued to normalize after soaring in June during the Paris Air Show. This led to a 2.9 percent decrease in new orders for transportation equipment despite a rebound in motor vehicle and parts sales (up 1.8 percent). Still, even excluding transportation equipment, new durable goods orders fell 0.9 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively, in August and September, indicating broader weaknesses in the sector. Read More

Durable Goods Orders Up for the Second Straight Month

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The Census Bureau said that new durable goods orders rose 2.0 percent in July, extending the 4.1 percent jump seen in June. Through the first seven months of 2015, new durable goods orders have risen 6.3 percent. Much of the gain in June came from strong sales from the Paris Air Show, and as we would expect, nondefense aircraft orders came back to earth in July, down 6.0 percent. Even with this decline, however, transportation orders were up 4.7 percent, boosted by rebounding auto sales. Motor vehicle orders increased 0.8 percent and 4.0 percent in the past two months, respectively, improving from softer demand in the spring months and helping the segment notch a 7.3 percent year-to-date gain. Read More

Monday Economic Report – June 29, 2015

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Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Last week, there were several reminders that the manufacturing sector has not recovered fully from economic weaknesses earlier in the year, even as business leaders remain cautiously optimistic about activity in the coming months. Durable goods orders declined 1.8 percent in May, extending April’s 1.5 percent decrease. Much of this softness stemmed from reduced aircraft sales, with orders excluding transportation modestly higher. Nonetheless, durable goods demand has been quite weak for much of the past year. On the positive side, we would expect stronger durable goods orders in the June data, with the recent Paris Air Show lifting aircraft sales, and the broader measure, which excludes transportation, has edged marginally higher over the past three months. We hope that this is the start of a rebound. Read More

Monday Economic Report – June 1, 2015

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Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter for the second year in a row, with revised data showing that real GDP declined by 0.7 percent. This was down from an earlier estimate of 0.2 percent growth. Overall, this was a disappointing start to 2015. That is particularly true when you look at the optimism that many businesses had at the start of the year. Yet, manufacturers faced a number of significant headwinds in recent months, including weaknesses abroad, a strong U.S. dollar, lower crude oil prices, the residual effects of the West Coast ports slowdown, bad weather in some regions of the country and a still-cautious consumer. Read More

Monday Economic Report – April 27, 2015

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Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Durable goods orders jumped 4.0 percent in March, which should be a sign that the sector was growing strongly and rebounding from recent softness. Instead, strong aircraft and motor vehicle sales in the month masked broader weaknesses behind the surface. Excluding transportation equipment orders, durable goods sales dropped 0.2 percent for the month and have edged lower across the past six months. Durable goods shipments were somewhat more encouraging on a year-over-year basis, up 3.7 percent, but they have been essentially flat since September. Read More

Monday Economic Report – March 30, 2015

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Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

As we have seen in past weeks, economic data continue to reflect dampened activity in the early months of 2015 as a result of a number of significant headwinds. These challenges range from weak economic growth abroad, to a significantly strengthened U.S. dollar, to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. Weather and the West Coast ports slowdown have also been relevant factors in some of the softness that we have seen in the reports released since December. As a result, the first quarter is likely to grow around 1.8 percent. This would be less than the 2.2 percent growth rate in real GDP seen during the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, I am predicting 2.8 percent growth in real GDP in 2015, reflecting a slight deceleration in my outlook for the year. The expectation is that we will see some rebounds moving forward, with manufacturers continuing to be more upbeat about the coming months, even with some challenges likely to continue. Read More

Monday Economic Report – March 2, 2015

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Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

While manufacturers remain mostly optimistic in their outlook, we have seen softness in a number of recent economic indicators. Slower economic growth internationally, a stronger U.S. dollar, reduced crude oil prices and the West Coast ports slowdown have been cited as reasons for this weaker-than-desired performance. Along those lines, real GDP growth in the fourth quarter was revised lower, down from 2.6 percent to 2.2 percent. In addition, surveys from the Dallas, Kansas City and Richmond Federal Reserve Banks all reflected decelerated levels of new orders and exports. Most notably, Texas manufacturers have been adversely impacted by the sharp drop in petroleum prices, dampening demand throughout the energy supply chain and for the larger regional economy. Yet, even in the Dallas report, respondents continued to be more positive than negative in their expectations for sales, production, employment and capital spending over the next six months. Read More

Monday Economic Report – February 2, 2015

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Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The U.S. economy grew 2.4 percent in 2014, just barely edging out the 2.2 percent gain in 2013. Yet, that somewhat understates the strength of the economy since the winter-related weaknesses seen at this point last year. Indeed, real GDP increased by an annualized 4.1 percent during the last three quarters of 2014, and in the fourth quarter, Americans spent at a healthy 4.3 percent annual pace, the fastest rate since the first quarter of 2006. Still, the 2.6 percent growth rate in real GDP in the fourth quarter also had some red flags. Weaker growth abroad, a strengthening U.S. dollar and worries about dramatically lower energy prices have impacted capital spending and international demand negatively. Therefore, while manufacturers remain mostly upbeat about orders and production in 2015, these developments serve as a reminder of the challenges in the global marketplace right now. Read More

Durable Goods Orders Were Disappointing in December

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The Census Bureau said that new durable goods orders fell 3.4 percent in December, ending the year on a weak note. Orders for durable goods declined in four of the past five months. As such, manufacturing activity in the second half of 2014 was less than desired, providing a bit of a contrast with better demand and sentiment data elsewhere. The sluggish global economic environment probably played a role in this softness. On a year-over-year basis, durable goods orders have risen only 0.3 percent since December 2013. On the other hand, they were up 2.9 percent from the weather-related slowdown of January 2014. Read More