Tag: durable goods orders

Monday Economic Report – June 29, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Last week, there were several reminders that the manufacturing sector has not recovered fully from economic weaknesses earlier in the year, even as business leaders remain cautiously optimistic about activity in the coming months. Durable goods orders declined 1.8 percent in May, extending April’s 1.5 percent decrease. Much of this softness stemmed from reduced aircraft sales, with orders excluding transportation modestly higher. Nonetheless, durable goods demand has been quite weak for much of the past year. On the positive side, we would expect stronger durable goods orders in the June data, with the recent Paris Air Show lifting aircraft sales, and the broader measure, which excludes transportation, has edged marginally higher over the past three months. We hope that this is the start of a rebound. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – June 1, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter for the second year in a row, with revised data showing that real GDP declined by 0.7 percent. This was down from an earlier estimate of 0.2 percent growth. Overall, this was a disappointing start to 2015. That is particularly true when you look at the optimism that many businesses had at the start of the year. Yet, manufacturers faced a number of significant headwinds in recent months, including weaknesses abroad, a strong U.S. dollar, lower crude oil prices, the residual effects of the West Coast ports slowdown, bad weather in some regions of the country and a still-cautious consumer. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – April 27, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Durable goods orders jumped 4.0 percent in March, which should be a sign that the sector was growing strongly and rebounding from recent softness. Instead, strong aircraft and motor vehicle sales in the month masked broader weaknesses behind the surface. Excluding transportation equipment orders, durable goods sales dropped 0.2 percent for the month and have edged lower across the past six months. Durable goods shipments were somewhat more encouraging on a year-over-year basis, up 3.7 percent, but they have been essentially flat since September. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – March 30, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

As we have seen in past weeks, economic data continue to reflect dampened activity in the early months of 2015 as a result of a number of significant headwinds. These challenges range from weak economic growth abroad, to a significantly strengthened U.S. dollar, to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. Weather and the West Coast ports slowdown have also been relevant factors in some of the softness that we have seen in the reports released since December. As a result, the first quarter is likely to grow around 1.8 percent. This would be less than the 2.2 percent growth rate in real GDP seen during the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, I am predicting 2.8 percent growth in real GDP in 2015, reflecting a slight deceleration in my outlook for the year. The expectation is that we will see some rebounds moving forward, with manufacturers continuing to be more upbeat about the coming months, even with some challenges likely to continue. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – March 2, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

While manufacturers remain mostly optimistic in their outlook, we have seen softness in a number of recent economic indicators. Slower economic growth internationally, a stronger U.S. dollar, reduced crude oil prices and the West Coast ports slowdown have been cited as reasons for this weaker-than-desired performance. Along those lines, real GDP growth in the fourth quarter was revised lower, down from 2.6 percent to 2.2 percent. In addition, surveys from the Dallas, Kansas City and Richmond Federal Reserve Banks all reflected decelerated levels of new orders and exports. Most notably, Texas manufacturers have been adversely impacted by the sharp drop in petroleum prices, dampening demand throughout the energy supply chain and for the larger regional economy. Yet, even in the Dallas report, respondents continued to be more positive than negative in their expectations for sales, production, employment and capital spending over the next six months. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – February 2, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The U.S. economy grew 2.4 percent in 2014, just barely edging out the 2.2 percent gain in 2013. Yet, that somewhat understates the strength of the economy since the winter-related weaknesses seen at this point last year. Indeed, real GDP increased by an annualized 4.1 percent during the last three quarters of 2014, and in the fourth quarter, Americans spent at a healthy 4.3 percent annual pace, the fastest rate since the first quarter of 2006. Still, the 2.6 percent growth rate in real GDP in the fourth quarter also had some red flags. Weaker growth abroad, a strengthening U.S. dollar and worries about dramatically lower energy prices have impacted capital spending and international demand negatively. Therefore, while manufacturers remain mostly upbeat about orders and production in 2015, these developments serve as a reminder of the challenges in the global marketplace right now. (continue reading…)

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Durable Goods Orders Were Disappointing in December

The Census Bureau said that new durable goods orders fell 3.4 percent in December, ending the year on a weak note. Orders for durable goods declined in four of the past five months. As such, manufacturing activity in the second half of 2014 was less than desired, providing a bit of a contrast with better demand and sentiment data elsewhere. The sluggish global economic environment probably played a role in this softness. On a year-over-year basis, durable goods orders have risen only 0.3 percent since December 2013. On the other hand, they were up 2.9 percent from the weather-related slowdown of January 2014. (continue reading…)

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Factory Orders Declined in October for the Third Straight Month

The Census Bureau said that new factory orders declined 0.7 percent in October, extending the 0.5 percent decrease observed in September. It was the third straight monthly decline; although, August’s fall was the response from surging aircraft orders in July. Overall, the October numbers were a disappointment, with softness across-the-board. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – December 1, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The U.S. economy grew 3.9 percent at the annual rate in the third quarter, according to revised real GDP data released last week. This was better than the 3.5 percent original estimate, and more importantly, it suggests real GDP increased at an annualized 4.2 percent over the past two quarters. The report highlighted a number of positive elements in the economy, including healthy increases in consumer and business spending, goods exports and end-of-fiscal-year government spending. The revision also included better inventory replenishment numbers than originally estimated. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – November 3, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

The U.S. economy grew 3.5 percent at the annual rate in the third quarter, representing decent growth following the disappointing first half of 2014. Consumer and business spending, which rebounded strongly in the second quarter, extended those gains in the third quarter, albeit with some easing in the pace of growth. Exports were also up strongly for the quarter, and imports were down. Dramatic inventory swings over the past three quarters were also evident, with stockpiles searching for a new normal. After adding 1.47 percentage points to real GDP in the second quarter, slower inventory replenishment subtracted 0.57 percent in the third quarter, making it one of the few negatives in the report. (continue reading…)

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