Agustino Fontevecchia of Forbes.com interviews Dave Huether, the National Association of Manufacturers’ chief economist, on the latest unemployment report and the impact of uncertainty on the economy. From “Uncertainty Weighs On Manufacturing Jobs“:

Within the private sector, which added 64,000 jobs as a whole in September, manufacturing recorded the second-largest job decline for September, trailing the construction sector drop of 21,000 jobs. But given the size of the sector, manufacturing’s decline was relatively small. “The sector is made up of 19 or 20 industries, so a decline of 6,000 jobs spread out that much isn’t a big preoccupation,” says Huether. More troubling is that temporary jobs, which usually precede full-time hiring, did not pick up.

For firms in manufacturing, the economic recovery has been sweet and sour. “Manufacturing led the recovery last year, but partially due to temporary factors,” says Huether, who cited tax credits for purchases of homes and efficient appliances, the Cash For Clunkers program, and the stimulus package. With those programs expiring or running their course, the resulting slowdown is unsurprising, according to Huether. “This weakness is a sort of a hangover, a sort of payback.”

Meanwhile, north of the border, The Sun reports, “Jobless rate shows signs of cooling economy“:

Canada’s labour market continued to show signs of stalling in September, with minimal gains reported in key industries and a slight dip in unemployment related to less youth actively looking for work.

The country’s unemployment rate dipped ever so slightly to 8 per in September, down 0.1 per cent, Statistics Canada reported on Friday.

• Los Angeles Times, “Unemployment stays at 9.6% as schools, governments slash jobs
• Reuters, “Unemployment rate unchanged at 9.6 pct“
• PBS NewsHour, September Job Losses Steeper, Worse for Economy Than Expected“

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, which diligently covers manufacturing and Wisconsin industry, today reports on the latest Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing report and the condition of the state’s manufacturers in “U.S. manufacturing strengthened in August.”  

ISM’s manufacturing index rose to 56.3 percent in August, up from 55.5 in July, and manufacturing has expanded for 13 straight months, indications that a “double-dip” recession is unlikely. Still, mixed signals.

Business has not rebounded to pre-recession peaks, but it’s much better than it was in 2009, said Dave Sucharski, general manager of Miro Tool & Manufacturing Inc., in Waukesha.

“Right now, all of the sectors of our company are busy,” he said. “The only downside is that orders are coming in with very short lead times.” To conserve cash, “customers are ordering things just when they need them,” he said, “and sometimes later than that.”

JS reporter Rick Barrett also notes points raised in the NAM’s Labor Day Report for 2010, released Wednesday.

“We have had four consecutive quarters of economic growth, but much of the increase was temporary in nature,” said David Huether, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers.

“More than half of the upturn in the economy over the past year was from business restocking inventories. Now, with inventory-to-sales ratios back to reasonable levels, this source of growth will likely fade,” Huether said.

The NAM’s Labor Day report is available at http://bit.ly/LaborDayReport .

The ISM index — available here – rose by an unexpected amount, which sparked probably too enthusiastic of reports about the economy, e.g., the Wall Street Journal blog entry, “Surprising Many, Manufacturing Is Bright Spot.” Congress is back soon, and could easily tarnish that brightness.

As NAM President John Engler wrote in the introduction to the Labor Day report:

Any serious Labor Day analysis of the U.S. economy and employment must address the uncertainty factor. Costly tax and regulatory proposals enacted or being considered by Congress and the Obama Administration make employers apprehensive, investors cautious and consumers anxious. Policies that expand government, taxes and regulations also pose serious questions about the ability of business in the United States to compete in the global marketplace. The predictable result is a faltering recovery and troubling times for U.S. workers.

From AP, an analysis, “Economic stress is easing more slowly“:

WASHINGTON — Two-thirds of U.S. counties became economically healthier in May, thanks to more manufacturing jobs in the Midwest and fewer home foreclosures in the Sun Belt, according to The Associated Press’ monthly analysis of conditions around the country.

Yet the improvement appeared to slow in May compared with April, the AP’s Economic Stress Index shows. And concerns are arising that the nation’s recovery is losing momentum….[snip]

“As the government’s stimulus winds down and as long as the labor market remains weak, an acceleration in the economy is probably not in the cards,” said David Huether, chief economist at the National Association of Manufacturers. “If I were a betting man, I’d bet the economy won’t double dip into recession, but it will grow at a much slower pace.”

From The Associated Press, a news release, “The new AP Economy Survey to offer quarterly view of trends and policy“:

NEW YORK — The Associated Press is launching the AP Economy Survey, a quarterly view of financial trends and policy affecting consumers around the world that will draw on the forecasts of as many as 50 leading economists.

The first survey findings will be reported in all formats on April 12.

The AP is surveying the economists — from banks, industry groups and academia — for their opinions about key indicators such as GDP, employment, inflation and interest rates. The AP business news staff will use these findings, along with other relevant reporting, to offer a general prognosis on the economy for the quarter and the year ahead and drill into areas of special importance, including the housing market, consumer spending and food prices.

David Huether, chief economist of the National Association of Manufacturers, is one of the 50.