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consumer spending Archives - Shopfloor

GDP Grows at Fastest Rate Since 2014, with Tax Reform Powering Manufacturers Forward

By | Economy, Shopfloor Economics, Shopfloor Main | No Comments

The Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the U.S. economy grew by an annualized 4.1 percent in the second quarter of 2018, the best reading since the third quarter of 2014 and up from 2.2 percent growth in the first quarter. Robust growth in consumer and business spending and exports boosted the data. Since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has expanded 2.2 percent on average. Moving forward, real GDP should grow by roughly 3 percent in 2018, which would be the strongest growth rate since 2005.

Indeed, over the past six months, tax reform and regulatory relief have sparked the robust manufacturing job growth manufacturers predicted. The business optimism of our member companies stands at a record high, and 86 percent of them plan to invest in new plants and equipment, 77 percent plan to increase hiring, and 72 percent plan to increase wages and benefits for workers. That is driving the robust growth we are now seeing reflected in today’s report, placing an urgent need to grow and upskill the manufacturing workforce. Read More

Retail Spending Activity Off by 0.1 Percent for the Third Straight Month in February

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Retail spending declined by 0.1 percent in February for the third straight month, starting the new year off with disappointing consumer data. Motor vehicle and parts sales were down 0.9 percent in February, decreasing for the fourth consecutive month, and one of the larger drags in the latest report. Along those lines, retail spending excluding automobiles was up 0.2 percent in February, extending the 0.1 percent gain seen in January. Despite the softer figures, the larger narrative remains an encouraging one, with consumers being a bright spot over the past year. Indeed, retail sales have risen 4.0 percent year-over-year in February, suggesting a decent pace overall even if it represented a deceleration from the more-robust rate of 5.9 percent in November. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, the pace was somewhat stronger, with retail sales up 4.4 percent over the past 12 months. Read More

Retail Spending Activity Disappointed in January

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Retail spending declined by 0.3 percent in January, which was a disappointing, especially given the consensus expectation for a 0.2 percent increase. Moreover, retail sales were unchanged in December, a notable revision from the prior estimate of a 0.4 percent gain. As a result of these latest figures, it is clear that consumer spending has been softer in the past two months than we would prefer. Yet, the larger narrative remains an encouraging one, with consumers being a bright spot over the past year. Indeed, retail sales have risen 3.7 percent year-over-year in January, suggesting a decent pace overall even if it represented a deceleration from the more-robust rate of 5.2 percent in December. Excluding automobiles, the pace was even stronger, with retail sales up 4.2 percent over the past 12 months. Read More

U.S. Economy Grew 2.6 Percent in the Fourth Quarter: Solid Growth in Spending, but Pulled Lower by Net Exports, Inventories

By | Economy, Shopfloor Economics, Shopfloor Main | No Comments

The Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the U.S. economy grew by an annualized 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter, according to preliminary data. This was somewhat lower than the consensus estimate of around 3 percent, and it represented an easing from the 3.1 percent and 3.2 percent gains seen in the second and third quarters, respectively. Overall, the latest report found solid growth in consumer, business and government spending, but headline growth was pulled lower by both net exports and inventory spending. To illustrate the impact of those various components, real GDP growth would have been 4.35 percent absent the drag from net exports and inventories, which subtracted 1.8 percentage points from the top-line growth figure. Personally, I would not be surprised to see the growth rate revised up in the coming weeks.

In 2017, real GDP increased by 2.3 percent, up from 1.5 percent in 2016. Since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has expanded by 2.2 percent on average. Moving forward, we anticipate 3.0 percent growth in 2018—or something close to that, the consensus right now is around 2.7 percent. I continue to believe that there is upward potential in that outlook for next year, especially as firms increase their investments. Passage of comprehensive tax reform and other pro-growth measures should help to stimulate economic activity, hopefully allowing us to reach 3.0 percent annual growth for the first time since 2005. Read More

Total Consumer Credit Rose in November at Fastest Pace in 16 Years

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The Federal Reserve Board reported that U.S. consumer credit outstanding rose 8.8 percent at the annual rate in November, up from a 6.5 percent gain in October. Total consumer credit was $3.827 trillion in November, with $1.023 trillion in revolving credit and $2.805 trillion in nonrevolving credit. The monthly increase in November was the largest in 16 years, which no-doubt helped to boost consumer spending for the month. Across the past 12 months, consumer credit has increased 5.3 percent. Read More

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