Tag: consumer prices

Lower Energy Costs Pushed Consumer Prices Down 0.3 Percent in November

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.3 percent in November. More importantly, consumer inflation has increased 1.3 percent over the past 12 months, down from 2.1 percent in May and 1.7 percent in October. In addition, core prices, which exclude food and energy costs, were up 1.7 percent in November, down from 1.8 percent the month before. As such, core inflation continues to remain below the Federal Reserve’s stated goal of 2 percent at the annual rate, which it has now done for 21 consecutive months. Overall, these trends mirror the producer price index data released earlier in the week.

Lower energy costs have helped to decelerate pricing pressures, with petroleum costs down sharply since June. The energy component of CPI has fallen 9.0 percent since June, for instance, with gasoline costs down 14.3 percent. Indeed, we have seen the average price of regular gasoline decline from $3.64 a gallon during the week of June 23 to $2.50 a gallon this week, according to the Energy Information Administration. (continue reading…)

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Consumer Prices Were Unchanged in October

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that consumer prices were unchanged in October. Over the past 12 months, consumer inflation has risen 1.7 percent. In addition, core prices, which exclude food and energy costs, were up 1.8 percent year-over-year. As such, core inflation continues to remain below the Federal Reserve’s stated goal of 2 percent at the annual rate, which it has now done for 20 consecutive months. Overall, these trends mirror the producer price index data released earlier in the week.

In particular, Americans continue to benefit from falling energy prices, which declined 1.9 percent in October and have dropped in each of the past four months. Since peaking in June, total consumer energy costs have decreased 5.4 percent. Indeed, we have seen the average price of regular gasoline decline from $3.64 a gallon during the week of June 23 to $2.86 a gallon this week, according to the Energy Information Administration. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – October 27, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

What a difference a week makes. After a volatile week in financial markets amid worldwide economic worries, things calmed down last week. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains 2.7 percent below its all-time high on September 19, it gained 425 points last week, or 2.6percent. Attitudes shifted to a more positive stance on decent earnings reports and on news that firms remain mostly upbeat in their outlook. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – September 22, 2014

Here is the summary of this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

Manufacturing production declined unexpectedly in August, led lower by reduced motor vehicle output. This drop was likely the result of automakers’ switching over to a new model year and summer vacations. Indeed, auto production has risen 8.1 percent over the past 12 months, continuing to make it one of the bright spots in the economy. Excluding autos, manufacturing output rose 0.1 percent, suggesting slightly better news for the broader sector. Still, the larger story is the accelerated pace of output seen since the winter months, with the year-over-year pace up from 1.6 percent in January to 4.0 percent in August. Durable and nondurable goods production has increased 5.6 percent and 2.2 percent year-over-year, respectively. Hopefully, the August figures reflect a brief pause before picking up again in September.

Regional sentiment surveys tend to suggest that this might be the case. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the New York Federal Reserve Bank said that business conditions rose at their fastest pace in nearly five years, with 46 percent of those taking the survey saying that the environment had improved in the month. At the same time, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey found healthy rates of growth in September, even as the pace pulled back slightly from very strong gains in August. Each of these two surveys reported higher levels for new orders and shipments, but they were mixed regarding hiring growth. Nonetheless, manufacturers in both districts were overwhelming upbeat about the next six months, with more than half of respondents predicting sales increases. Moreover, the Philly Fed found that a majority of those taking its survey expect production to increase in the third and fourth quarters.

Meanwhile, housing starts fell from an annualized 1,117,000 units in July to 956,000 in August. To be fair, the July figure—the second fastest pace since November 2007—was likely an outlier, and the pendulum—not unexpectedly—swung back somewhat. Yet, the slowdown in August was still disappointing. On the bright side, while single-family and multi-family unit starts and permits were both down, the highly volatile multi-family segment comprised the bulk of the decline. Looking at a longer time horizon, each has continued a slow, but steady upward trajectory. I continue to expect housing starts to be solidly at 1.1 million by year’s end. Indeed, home-builder confidence was equally optimistic about better figures moving forward, with the Housing Market Index at its highest level since November 2005.

The Federal Reserve Board provided the other major headline from last week. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began laying out its principles for winding down the extraordinary stimulus that it has pursued since the financial crisis at the end of 2008. The Fed will end its purchases of long-term and mortgage-backed securities after its October FOMC meeting, and the expectation is that short-term interest rates will begin to “normalize” at some point in 2015. The federal funds rate, however, will remain near zero for a “considerable time after the asset purchase program ends,” a statement that some suggest means that normalization will not occur until mid-2015 at the earliest. Fortunately, news that consumer and producer pricing pressures eased in August was likely welcomed at the FOMC because it takes some pressure off of the Fed to act sooner, at least for now. (Inflation has accelerated from where it was earlier in the year, but remains below the Fed’s stated 2.0 percent goal.)

In its FOMC statement, the Federal Reserve said that “economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace.” Nonetheless, it continues to worry about slack in the economy, particularly in labor markets. The Fed predicts growth this year of between 2.0 and 2.2 percent, with 2.6 to 3.0 percent real GDP growth next year. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.9 or 6.0 percent by the end of 2014 and 5.4 to 5.6 percent by the end of 2015. In terms of inflation, the Fed forecasts prices growing by less than 2.0 percent over the next few years. If core inflation consistently exceeds 2.0 percent, it will give greater credence to hawks on the FOMC to increase rates sooner rather than later.

This week, we will get a sense of how manufacturing activity is faring globally with preliminary purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data from Markit for China, the Eurozone and the United States. The Chinese economy has begun to stabilize after slowing earlier in the year, but is still not growing by much. European growth has effectively come to a halt. In the United States, however, recent PMI data have reflected healthy gains in both demand and output over the summer months. We will also get new surveys from the Kansas City and Richmond Federal Reserve banks. Beyond those surveys, we will get the second revision to real GDP growth for the second quarter on Friday, with a consensus estimate of 4.3 percent growth, or just slightly higher than the previous 4.2 percent figure.

Other highlights this week include the latest data on consumer confidence, durable goods orders and shipments, and existing and new home sales.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers. 

housing starts and permits - sept2014

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Consumer Prices Fell 0.2 Percent in August on Reduced Energy Costs

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that consumer prices fell 0.2 percent in August, the first monthly decline since April 2013. The decrease stemmed largely from reduced energy costs, which were off 2.6 percent in August. Gasoline prices decreased 4.1 percent for the month. Indeed, we have seen the average price of regular gasoline decline from $3.47 a gallon during the week of July 28 to $3.40 a gallon for the week of August 25, according to the Energy Information Administration. It has fallen further since then, averaging $3.35 per gallon this week.

In contrast, food prices continued to rise, up 0.2 percent, albeit at a slower pace than earlier in the year. Food costs have risen 2.4 percent year-to-date, or 2.7 percent over the past 12 months. As with past months, the largest food price increases in August were for beef and veal, chicken, eggs, fish, ham and seafood. These gains were somewhat offset, however, by decreased monthly costs for fruits and vegetables and beverages.

Meanwhile, when you exclude food and energy items, consumer prices were unchanged, mirroring producer price index data released yesterday. There were higher prices for new motor vehicles and shelter, with reduced costs for apparel, household furnishings and used cars and trucks.

Overall, the consumer price index rose 1.7 percent from August 2013 to August 2014, down from the 2.0 percent pace observed in July. This suggests a slight easing in inflationary pressures, even as it still reflects an acceleration from the 1.1 percent year-over-year rate in February. Similarly, core inflation – which excludes food and energy items – was also up 1.7 percent year-over-year, down from 1.9 percent the month before.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is winding up its meeting today, no doubt welcomes news that pricing pressures have lessened somewhat in August. Core inflation remains below the Federal Reserve’s stated target of 2 percent. Still, the FOMC will closely watch to see how pricing pressures develop in the coming months, particularly as it prepares to start normalizing short-term rates in early 2015.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers. 

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Monday Economic Report – August 25, 2014

Here is the summary of this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Market leaders continue to play the guessing game of when the Federal Reserve Board will start to normalize short-term interest rates. Conventional wisdom suggests that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will begin to raise the federal funds rate sometime in 2015 from the near-zero levels that have been prevalent since the financial crisis in 2008. The Federal Reserve has already announced that it will cease purchasing long-term and mortgage-backed securities in October. In the July FOMC meeting minutes, participants noted recent improvements in the economy, including increased activity among manufacturers (see below). Most notably, they said the following regarding monetary policy over the next few months:

“…many participants noted that if convergence toward the Committee’s objectives occurred more quickly than expected, it might become appropriate to begin removing monetary policy accommodation sooner than they currently anticipated.”

That line, which was widely reported in the media, was seen as hawkish. Indeed, financial markets saw that statement as a sign that short-term rates might rise sooner than expected, perhaps as early as the first quarter of 2015. In her keynote speech at a Kansas City Federal Reserve economic symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated this point, noting the role that upcoming economic data will have on the timing of policy normalization. She cited continued “slack” in labor markets, but also highlighted positive developments more recently. Either way, it remains true that monetary policy will remain highly accommodative for the foreseeable future, with short-term rate hikes (whenever they occur) being gradual. Recent data on consumer and producer prices have shown inflationary pressures easing a bit, even as they remain near the Federal Reserve’s stated target of 2 percent.

Meanwhile, economic data released last week suggest that the manufacturing rebound that we have seen since the winter continues to strengthen. The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased sharply, up from 55.8 in July to 58.0 in August, reaching its highest level since April 2010. The indices for new orders and production were both above 60, suggesting strong growth and closely mirroring similar data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s manufacturing survey also reported healthy gains in August, with activity growing at its fastest pace in more than three years, and respondents were very upbeat in their assessment of the next six months. Still, if there are any weaknesses of note, it would be overseas. Manufacturing demand and output were softer in both China and Europe, for instance.

The housing market also appears to be faring better of late, recovering somewhat from the lull that we saw earlier in the year. Housing starts jumped 15.7 percent in July, offsetting significant declines in both May and June. Starts reached their second-highest pace since November 2007, with an annualized 1,093,000 units in July. Both single-family and multifamily construction activity were higher for the month, and housing permits also reflected progress. In addition, existing home sales also notched improved figures in July, with activity up for the fourth straight month. Overall, this is encouraging news for residential construction. We would expect a solid 1.1 million housing starts at the annual rate by year’s end, representing slow-but-steady progress.

This week, we will get an update on second-quarter real GDP, with consensus expectations calling for a slight downward revision from the 4.0 percent growth rate estimate announced in late July. The new figure would still represent a rebound from the first quarter’s decline of 2.1 percent. We will also see if regional activity continues to expand in the August manufacturing surveys from the Dallas, Richmond and Kansas City Federal Reserve Banks, mirroring what we have seen in the similar New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve reports. Other highlights include the latest data on consumer confidence, durable goods orders and personal income and spending.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers. 

markit us pmi - aug2014

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Consumer Prices Ease a Bit in June, Still Reflect an Acceleration in the Second Quarter

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices increased 0.3 percent in June, easing a bit from the 0.4 percent growth rate seen in May. Still, it is clear that prices have accelerated in the second quarter, led by higher food and energy costs. The annualized rate of growth in the second quarter was 3.5 percent, a substantial jump from the 1.8 percent annual pace seen in the first quarter. Of course, this figure perhaps overstates the significance of the last three months, with the consumer price index up 2.1 percent over the past 12 months. Even there, though, the year-over-year rate has jumped from being just 1.1 percent in February.

In the June data, the largest jump in consumer prices came from energy, up 1.6 percent for the month and building off of the 0.9 percent increase in May. Indeed, the price of West Texas intermediate crude has increased from an average of $97.63 per barrel in December to $100.80 in March to $105.79 in June. Much of the latest rise in prices has stemmed from Middle Eastern turmoil, particularly in Iraq at that time. Energy costs have risen 2.8 percent in the past three months alone, primarily from higher gasoline prices.

Meanwhile, food prices were up 0.1 percent, its slowest pace of growth in four months. In fact, prices of food for the home were unchanged in June, the first non-positive growth figure in six months. Higher prices for meats and eggs were offset by some easing in the costs of bakery items, cereals, dairy products and fruits and vegetables. Nonetheless, the cost of food for the consumer has risen 1.8 percent over the past six months, something that Americans are bound to notice in the grocery aisle.

Outside of food and energy, core consumer inflation decelerated in June to 0.1 percent growth in June. Over the past 12 months, core consumer prices have risen 1.9 percent, unchanged from May but up from 1.6 percent in January. In June, the largest increases were seen in airfare, apparel, housing, medical care and tobacco.

While pricing pressures have definitely picked up in the second quarter, the year-over-year pace still remains mostly in-line with the Federal Reserve Board’s stated goals. They will no-doubt continue to watch inflation numbers closely, but the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is unlikely to deviate from its current monetary policy trajectory at next week’s meeting.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers. 

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Consumer Prices Continue to Rise in May, Core Inflation Nears 2 Percent

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the consumer prices increased 0.4 percent in May, their strongest monthly gain since February 2013. Food and energy costs both accelerated in May, helping to push the overall consumer price index higher. The cost of energy soared 0.9 percent for the month, accelerating on rising electricity (up 2.3 percent) and gasoline (0.7 percent) expenses. The jump in electricity prices followed a 2.6 percent decline the month before; on a year-over-year basis, electricity costs have risen modestly, up 3.6 percent.

Meanwhile, food prices continue to move rise, up 0.5 percent in May and 1.8 percent over the past five months. The increase was mainly attributable to increased costs for meats, seafood, eggs, dairy, and vegetables. Outside of food and energy, the largest increases were for apparel, lodging away from home, housing, transportation services, medical care, and new vehicles.

The consumer price index has risen 2.1 percent over the past 12 months, up significantly from the 1.1 percent pace seen just 3 months ago in February. Core inflation – which excludes food and energy costs – was up 1.95 percent year-over-year, up from 1.8 percent the month before. As such, core pricing pressures have neared the 2 percent threshold set by the Federal Reserve Board, and May’s year-over-year pace was the highest level in 19 months.

With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting the next couple days, the fact that inflation has accelerated will no-doubt be a relevant conversation, particularly for hawks on the committee. At least for now, pricing pressures appear to be in-check, hovering around the Fed’s stated target. Yet, the Fed will also keep a close eye on it to see if core pricing pressures continue to accelerate in the months ahead. My guess is that they will stabilize somewhat, and some of the current pressures are transitory in the short-term.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers. 

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Monday Economic Report – May 19, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

There are numerous signs that global economic growth is lower than expected in 2014, with some disappointing data coming in last week. For instance, industrial production numbers were weaker in a number of countries, including slower industrial growth in China in April relative to just a few months ago and falling output in March in the Eurozone. Europe also learned that real GDP rose at the very slow pace of 0.2 percent in the first quarter, prompting new worries about sluggish income and labor market growth on the continent. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve reported that manufacturing production fell 0.4 percent in April. This followed relatively strong rebounds in February and March from winter-related softness in December and January. Still, output continues to reflect modest gains year-over-year, particularly for durable goods.

Despite April’s decline in industrial production, other data suggest that manufacturing activity in the United States appears to be recovering from earlier weaknesses. Manufacturing surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks both show relatively strong expansions in their regions, even as the Philly Fed report eased a bit in May from April. New orders, shipments and employment reflected continuing expansion from the previous survey. More importantly, manufacturers in each district remained mostly upbeat about the next six months, with more than half of the respondents in both surveys anticipating new orders to increase moving forward. For their part, small business owners were also more optimistic, with the National Federation of Independent Business’s (NFIB) key index rising to its highest level since October 2007.

At first glance, the housing data released last week were also quite positive. Housing starts exceeded 1 million again for the first time this year, up from an annualized 947,000 units in March to 1,072,000 in April. New residential permitting was also higher. Yet, the bulk of April’s increases in both measures were primarily due to the more volatile multifamily housing segment. Single-family starts and permits were only marginally higher, but remain below the recent peaks last November. As such, there is perhaps more softness in the market than the headline figure indicated. (We will get existing and new home sales figures this week.) Indeed, homebuilder confidence fell to its lowest point in 12 months, with consumer anxieties cited as a concern. On the positive side, builders were somewhat more hopeful about future activity.

Consumer data were mixed. Retail sales increased 0.1 percent in April, extending the strong gains from February and March. Auto sales comprised much of April’s gains, with retail spending outside of motor vehicles unchanged from March. As such, consumers appeared to be somewhat cautious in April. This showed up in the latest consumer confidence data as well. The University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters reported that consumer sentiment edged slightly lower in May in its preliminary data, with Americans more concerned about current economic conditions. In terms of prices, consumer inflation has started to pick up slightly, led by higher food costs, but core pricing pressures remain below 2 percent at the annual rate, at least for now. A similar pattern was observed for producer prices.

This week, we will get more news on the health of the manufacturing sector worldwide, with flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Markit for the United States, Europe, China and Japan. The Kansas City Federal Reserve will also release its latest sentiment survey. Finally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from its April 29–30 meeting will be released, providing some insights about current Federal Reserve debates. However, that meeting hardly produced any surprises, with the FOMC continuing to taper its asset purchases and the Federal Reserve’s forward guidance still pointing to short-term rate increases sometime next year.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers. 

yoy industrial production growth - may2014

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Monday Economic Report – March 24, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

For much of the past month, people have been questioning how much of the recent softness in the manufacturing sector was due to weather and how much stemmed from other factors. The data released last week support the view that it was largely weather related, with numerous winter storms keeping shoppers from the stores and closing factories temporarily. Fortunately, manufacturing activity has rebounded in the latest reports. For instance, manufacturing production increased 0.8 percent in February, nearly offsetting January’s 0.9 percent decline, with capacity utilization for the sector rising from 75.9 percent to 76.4 percent. Similar rebounds were seen in the March surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks, and more importantly, manufacturers continue to be mostly upbeat about new orders and shipments over the next six months.

In its monetary policy statement, the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) acknowledged the negative effects of “adverse weather conditions” on recent activity. It also provided the following evaluation of the current economic environment:

Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment continued to advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

The biggest news from the FOMC’s statement was the change in its forward guidance, as expected, to no longer mention an unemployment rate target. Since its December 2012 meeting, the FOMC has said it would pursue a highly accommodative monetary policy until the unemployment rate hit 6.5 percent and/or long-term inflation consistently exceeded 2.0 percent. With unemployment falling, this put the Federal Reserve in a predicament because job growth continues to be a challenge, particularly for the long-term unemployed, and progress in the unemployment rate fails to acknowledge loforw participation rates and underemployment that exists in the labor market. For this reason, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota opposed the change in the Fed’s guidance, and he subsequently said that he wanted a 5.5 percent unemployment rate target.

In the end, however, short-term interest rates cannot hover around zero percent forever, particularly with the U.S. economy improving. The Federal Reserve now forecasts real GDP growth in 2014 of 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent, with the unemployment rate falling to 6.1 percent by year’s end. The FOMC continued to taper its long-term asset purchases, down from $65 billion each month to $55 billion, and short-term interest rates are now expected to start rising sometime in 2015. (This is true even with new Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s suggestion that rates might begin to increase around six months after quantitative easing ends, a comment that spooked markets on Wednesday.)

Fortunately for the Federal Reserve, inflationary pressures remain minimal, allowing the FOMC to continue its stimulative measures for now. Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in February, with core inflation increasing 1.6 percent over the past 12 months. Of course, higher interest rates could negatively impact spending, particularly for large consumer items and for business investments.

Along these lines, housing starts have stabilized a little, up from 905,000 annualized units in January to 907,000 in February, but still remain somewhat weak. On the positive side, housing permits—a proxy of future activity—exceeded 1 million for the first time since November, largely on gains in multifamily residential construction. Single-family permitting remained soft, however, and homebuilder sentiment continued to be down from where it was just a few months ago. In addition to weather challenges, National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chief Economist David Crowe attributes the current weakness to “a shortage of buildable lots and skilled workers, rising materials prices and an extremely low inventory of new homes for sale.”

Today, we will get March Markit Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the United States, China and Eurozone. In particular, economists will be looking to see if Chinese manufacturing activity continues to decelerate and if the slight easing in February’s data was a one-month phenomenon. (For more on international trends, see the latest Global Manufacturing Economic Update, which was released on Friday.) Other highlights this week include updates on consumer confidence, durable goods orders and shipments, GDP, manufacturing surveys from the Kansas City and Richmond Federal Reserve Banks, personal income and spending and state employment.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

fed funds rate - mar2014

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