Tag: consumer prices

Monday Economic Report – June 22, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

Last week, one media outlet reported that manufacturing has been in a “technical recession” for the past six months. I am more hesitant to use the R-word to describe the sector’s performance year-to-date, and in my view, this description somewhat overstates the significance of broader market trends, particularly for expectations moving forward. At the same time, manufacturing production has declined since late last year, as illustrated in the graphic below. A number of significant economic headwinds have reduced output in four of the past six months, reducing the year-over-year pace of growth in the sector from 4.5 percent in November to 1.8 percent in May. Capacity utilization has also declined for five consecutive months, down from 78.1 percent in December to 77.0 percent in May. (continue reading…)

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Higher Gasoline Costs Help Increase Consumer Prices at Fastest Pace in Over 2 Years

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the consumer price index rose by 0.4 percent in May, its fastest monthly pace since February 2013. This was largely due to higher gasoline prices, which increased 10.4 percent for the month. Indeed, the average price of regular conventional gasoline was $2.656 per gallon on June 1, up from $2.451 a gallon on April 27, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). (It has risen further since then, averaging $2.744 per gallon on June 15.) To be fair, of course, gasoline prices remain lower than they were one year ago, down 25.0 percent year-over-year. For instance, the EIA data suggest that the average price of regular gasoline on June 16, 2014, was $3.621 per gallon. (continue reading…)

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Consumer Prices Rose 0.1 Percent in April

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in April, slightly lower than the 0.2 percent gains observed in both February and March. Lower energy prices helped to reduce the pace of the headline number, with energy costs down 1.3 percent for the month. Gasoline prices declined 1.9 percent in April, easing a bit after 2.4 percent and 3.9 percent increases observed in February and March, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline sells for 31.7 percent less today than in April 2014. Note that the average price of gasoline has risen a little since then, with the Energy Information Administration reporting that the average price of regular gasoline was $2.604 per gallon on May 18, up from $2.315 on April 6. This is still more than one dollar lower than seen 12 months ago. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – April 20, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Manufacturing production increased 0.1 percent in March. This followed three months of weaker data, including declines in both January and February. There have been some significant headwinds hitting the manufacturing sector over the past few months, including a strong U.S. dollar, weakened economic markets abroad, lower crude oil prices, the West Coast ports slowdown and weather. These challenges have slowed activity in the sector since November. The latest Beige Book discussed these headwinds. The year-over-year pace of manufacturing production in March was 2.4 percent, down from 4.5 percent in November. Meanwhile, total industrial production, which includes mining and utilities, fell 0.6 percent in March, declining for the third time in the past four months. As such, the data suggest manufacturers have started the new year on a very soft note despite optimism for better demand and output moving forward. (continue reading…)

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Higher Gasoline Costs Help Increase Consumer Prices for the Second Straight Month

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the consumer price index increased for the second straight month in March, up 0.2 percent. This was largely due to higher gasoline prices, which increased 2.4 percent and 3.9 percent in February and March, respectively. To be fair, the price of regular gasoline remains 29.2 percent lower today than it was 12 months ago. Indeed, the average price of regular gasoline rose from $1.982 a gallon on January 26 to $2.348 per gallon on March 30, according to the Energy Information Administration. It has edged marginally lower since then, down to $2.317 per gallon on April 13, or earlier this week. (continue reading…)

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Consumer Prices Rose for the First Time in Four Months in February

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the consumer price index (CPI) rose for the first time in four months, up 0.2 percent in February. This was largely due to higher gasoline prices, which increased 2.4 percent in February. To be fair, the price of regular gasoline remains 33.5 percent lower today than it was 12 months ago. Indeed, the average price of regular gasoline declined from $3.639 a gallon on June 23 to $1.982 a gallon on January 26, according to the Energy Information Administration. It then rose to $2.256 per gallon on February 23, and has since edged up to $2.347 this week. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – January 20, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

Financial markets around the world continued to react to the softening global economic environment. In particular, foreign exchange markets were rocked by news that Switzerland would no longer support its cap on the franc, where that currency has been seen as a safe haven, particularly against the euro. Almost immediately, the Swiss franc appreciated sharply against the euro and other currencies. For its part, the euro has continued to depreciate against the U.S. dollar, with one euro selling for $1.1581 on Friday. This was down $1.3927 on March 17, the high point of 2014, representing an appreciation of more than 17 percent for the U.S. dollar against the euro. These developments could hurt the ability of manufacturers in the United States to grow exports. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – December 22, 2014

Here is the summary of this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

Manufacturing production was up sharply in November, with output increasing 1.1 percent for the month and 4.8 percent year-over-year. These healthy gains followed a softer-than-desired autumn, and we hope it suggests that production figures will begin to match the relative optimism regarding expected demand and output seen in a number of sentiment surveys, including the latest NAM/IndustryWeek Survey of Manufacturers. Capacity utilization for the sector was also higher, up from 77.6 percent in October to 78.4 percent in November. This was the highest utilization rate since December 2007, the first month of the Great Recession. Moreover, total industrial production rose 1.3 percent, with utility output in November also up significantly. Mining production was down for the month, but up a whopping 9.3 percent over the past 12 months, with the sector benefiting from increased energy exploration. (continue reading…)

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Lower Energy Costs Pushed Consumer Prices Down 0.3 Percent in November

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.3 percent in November. More importantly, consumer inflation has increased 1.3 percent over the past 12 months, down from 2.1 percent in May and 1.7 percent in October. In addition, core prices, which exclude food and energy costs, were up 1.7 percent in November, down from 1.8 percent the month before. As such, core inflation continues to remain below the Federal Reserve’s stated goal of 2 percent at the annual rate, which it has now done for 21 consecutive months. Overall, these trends mirror the producer price index data released earlier in the week.

Lower energy costs have helped to decelerate pricing pressures, with petroleum costs down sharply since June. The energy component of CPI has fallen 9.0 percent since June, for instance, with gasoline costs down 14.3 percent. Indeed, we have seen the average price of regular gasoline decline from $3.64 a gallon during the week of June 23 to $2.50 a gallon this week, according to the Energy Information Administration. (continue reading…)

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Consumer Prices Were Unchanged in October

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that consumer prices were unchanged in October. Over the past 12 months, consumer inflation has risen 1.7 percent. In addition, core prices, which exclude food and energy costs, were up 1.8 percent year-over-year. As such, core inflation continues to remain below the Federal Reserve’s stated goal of 2 percent at the annual rate, which it has now done for 20 consecutive months. Overall, these trends mirror the producer price index data released earlier in the week.

In particular, Americans continue to benefit from falling energy prices, which declined 1.9 percent in October and have dropped in each of the past four months. Since peaking in June, total consumer energy costs have decreased 5.4 percent. Indeed, we have seen the average price of regular gasoline decline from $3.64 a gallon during the week of June 23 to $2.86 a gallon this week, according to the Energy Information Administration. (continue reading…)

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