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consumer confidence

Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Fell to Its Lowest Level of the Year in November

By | General, Shopfloor Economics | No Comments

The Conference Board said that consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level of the year in November. The Consumer Confidence Index declined from a revised 99.1 in October to 90.4 in November, the weakest reading since September 2014. As such, consumer attitudes have downshifted dramatically over the past two months, down from 102.6 in September, which had been the second-highest level of the year. Indeed, consumer confidence has been highly volatile in 2015, but with perceptions generally lower since reaching a post-recessionary high in January (103.8). Much of that weakness has stemmed from worries about the economic outlook, but it is also possible that geopolitical events could be taking a toll on confidence, particularly in this latest survey. Read More

Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Rebounded to its Highest Level since January

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The Conference Board said that consumer sentiment rebounded to its highest level since January. The Consumer Confidence Index increased from 101.3 in August to 103.0 in September, just shy of the 103.8 reading that was notching at the beginning of the year. The January figure had been the strongest figure since August 2007, suggesting that consumers are near a pre-recessionary high in terms of current confidence levels. With that said, Americans’ attitudes about the economy have been highly volatile so far this year, ranging from a low of 91.0 in July to its January peak. Much of the weakness that we have seen year-to-date has stemmed from worries about labor and income growth. This is true despite progress over the longer term, with the index up from 80.2 in September 2013 and 89.0 in September 2014. Read More

Consumer Confidence Fell to a 12-Month Low in September

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The University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters said that consumer confidence fell to a 12-month low in September, according to preliminary numbers. The Consumer Sentiment Index declined from 91.9 in August to 85.7 in September, with worries about the U.S. and global economy likely weighing heavily on Americans’ minds. Indeed, the decrease in perceptions was perhaps influenced by the falling stock market values and the media focus on economic headwinds. This was most noticeable in the subcomponent measuring future conditions, which declined from 83.4 to 76.4, the lowest level year-to-date. The index examining the current economic environment was also lower, down from 105.1 to 100.3, decreasing for the third straight month. Read More

Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Rebounded in August

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The Conference Board said that consumer sentiment jumped strongly in August, rebounding from the sharp decline seen in July. The Consumer Confidence Index, which unexpectedly fell significantly from 99.8 in June to 91.0 in July, recovered in August, rising to 101.5. This was the second-highest level since August 2007 – second only to January’s 103.8 reading. The improvement in this report stemmed largely from the public’s better assessment of the labor market. For instance, 21.9 percent of respondents said that jobs were plentiful, up from 19.9 percent the month before. More importantly, the percent noting that jobs were “hard to get” fell from 27.4 percent to 21.9 percent. Read More

Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Jumped Higher in June

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The Conference Board said that consumer sentiment jumped higher in June. The Consumer Confidence Index increased from 94.6 in May to 101.4 in June, matching its level of March and coming after two months of softness in the data. Sentiment continues to remain below the post-recessionary peak observed in January (103.8), but overall, this report suggests that Americans’ attitudes have rebounded from weaknesses earlier in the year. In addition, confidence has risen from one year ago when the index was 86.4. Despite these improvements, the public continues to remain somewhat anxious about labor and income growth. Read More

Monday Economic Report – June 29, 2015

By | Economy, General | No Comments

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Last week, there were several reminders that the manufacturing sector has not recovered fully from economic weaknesses earlier in the year, even as business leaders remain cautiously optimistic about activity in the coming months. Durable goods orders declined 1.8 percent in May, extending April’s 1.5 percent decrease. Much of this softness stemmed from reduced aircraft sales, with orders excluding transportation modestly higher. Nonetheless, durable goods demand has been quite weak for much of the past year. On the positive side, we would expect stronger durable goods orders in the June data, with the recent Paris Air Show lifting aircraft sales, and the broader measure, which excludes transportation, has edged marginally higher over the past three months. We hope that this is the start of a rebound. Read More

Monday Economic Report – June 15, 2015

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Here are the files for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

Manufacturers and other businesses came into this year with a lot of optimism, particularly given robust growth in the second half of last year. Instead, economic growth has been disappointing year-to-date. A number of significant headwinds have challenged the sector, including a stronger dollar, lower crude oil prices, the residual effects of the West Coast ports slowdown and cautiousness in consumer spending. Much of this can be seen in recent GDP and production figures, which have reflected recent declines in activity, particularly in the first quarter. Read More

Monday Economic Report – June 1, 2015

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Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter for the second year in a row, with revised data showing that real GDP declined by 0.7 percent. This was down from an earlier estimate of 0.2 percent growth. Overall, this was a disappointing start to 2015. That is particularly true when you look at the optimism that many businesses had at the start of the year. Yet, manufacturers faced a number of significant headwinds in recent months, including weaknesses abroad, a strong U.S. dollar, lower crude oil prices, the residual effects of the West Coast ports slowdown, bad weather in some regions of the country and a still-cautious consumer. Read More

Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Rebounded a Little in May

By | Economy | No Comments

The Conference Board said that consumer sentiment rebounded a little in May. The Consumer Confidence Index has been quite volatile over the past six months, ranging from a low of 91.0 in November to a high of 103.8 in January (a post-recessionary peak).  Confidence plummeted to 94.3 in April, but it edged somewhat higher to 95.4 in May. On the positive side, Americans are more confident today than they were one year ago (when the index was 82.2), and they were slightly more upbeat for the month. Yet, these data indicate that the public remains anxious about employment and income growth, mirroring softer-than-desired economic data in the early months of this year. Read More

Monday Economic Report – May 4, 2015

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Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The U.S. economy stagnated in the first quarter, with real GDP growing by just 0.2 percent. This compares to a consensus estimate of 1.1 percent, and it was lower than the 5.0 percent and 2.2 percent growth rates observed in the third and fourth quarters of 2014, respectively. As one might expect from a data point that is just shy of zero, the underlying contributions to growth were mixed. Net exports and government spending were drags on activity in the first quarter, particularly with headwinds from a stronger dollar. Consumer spending on goods and nonresidential fixed investment were also weak, with the latter experiencing sharp declines stemming from the energy market and its supply chain. The bright spots—to the extent that you could call them that—were service-sector spending and a rebound in inventories. Read More