Tag: consumer confidence

Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Jumped Higher in June

The Conference Board said that consumer sentiment jumped higher in June. The Consumer Confidence Index increased from 94.6 in May to 101.4 in June, matching its level of March and coming after two months of softness in the data. Sentiment continues to remain below the post-recessionary peak observed in January (103.8), but overall, this report suggests that Americans’ attitudes have rebounded from weaknesses earlier in the year. In addition, confidence has risen from one year ago when the index was 86.4. Despite these improvements, the public continues to remain somewhat anxious about labor and income growth. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – June 29, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Last week, there were several reminders that the manufacturing sector has not recovered fully from economic weaknesses earlier in the year, even as business leaders remain cautiously optimistic about activity in the coming months. Durable goods orders declined 1.8 percent in May, extending April’s 1.5 percent decrease. Much of this softness stemmed from reduced aircraft sales, with orders excluding transportation modestly higher. Nonetheless, durable goods demand has been quite weak for much of the past year. On the positive side, we would expect stronger durable goods orders in the June data, with the recent Paris Air Show lifting aircraft sales, and the broader measure, which excludes transportation, has edged marginally higher over the past three months. We hope that this is the start of a rebound. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – June 15, 2015

Here are the files for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

Manufacturers and other businesses came into this year with a lot of optimism, particularly given robust growth in the second half of last year. Instead, economic growth has been disappointing year-to-date. A number of significant headwinds have challenged the sector, including a stronger dollar, lower crude oil prices, the residual effects of the West Coast ports slowdown and cautiousness in consumer spending. Much of this can be seen in recent GDP and production figures, which have reflected recent declines in activity, particularly in the first quarter. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – June 1, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter for the second year in a row, with revised data showing that real GDP declined by 0.7 percent. This was down from an earlier estimate of 0.2 percent growth. Overall, this was a disappointing start to 2015. That is particularly true when you look at the optimism that many businesses had at the start of the year. Yet, manufacturers faced a number of significant headwinds in recent months, including weaknesses abroad, a strong U.S. dollar, lower crude oil prices, the residual effects of the West Coast ports slowdown, bad weather in some regions of the country and a still-cautious consumer. (continue reading…)

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Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Rebounded a Little in May

The Conference Board said that consumer sentiment rebounded a little in May. The Consumer Confidence Index has been quite volatile over the past six months, ranging from a low of 91.0 in November to a high of 103.8 in January (a post-recessionary peak).  Confidence plummeted to 94.3 in April, but it edged somewhat higher to 95.4 in May. On the positive side, Americans are more confident today than they were one year ago (when the index was 82.2), and they were slightly more upbeat for the month. Yet, these data indicate that the public remains anxious about employment and income growth, mirroring softer-than-desired economic data in the early months of this year. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – May 4, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The U.S. economy stagnated in the first quarter, with real GDP growing by just 0.2 percent. This compares to a consensus estimate of 1.1 percent, and it was lower than the 5.0 percent and 2.2 percent growth rates observed in the third and fourth quarters of 2014, respectively. As one might expect from a data point that is just shy of zero, the underlying contributions to growth were mixed. Net exports and government spending were drags on activity in the first quarter, particularly with headwinds from a stronger dollar. Consumer spending on goods and nonresidential fixed investment were also weak, with the latter experiencing sharp declines stemming from the energy market and its supply chain. The bright spots—to the extent that you could call them that—were service-sector spending and a rebound in inventories. (continue reading…)

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Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Pulled Back Again in April

The Conference Board said that consumer sentiment pulled back again in April. The Consumer Confidence Index has been quite volatile over the past few months. After jumping from 93.1 in December to 103.8 in January (its highest level since August 2007), it has measured 98.8, 101.4 and 95.2 in February, March and April, respectively. Despite the back-and-forth swings each month, the index measuring current conditions has edged lower for three consecutive months, down from 113.9 in January to 106.8 in April. This figure continues to reflect progress in overall attitudes over the longer-term, and yet, it mirrors recent softness in a number of economic data points. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – April 20, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Manufacturing production increased 0.1 percent in March. This followed three months of weaker data, including declines in both January and February. There have been some significant headwinds hitting the manufacturing sector over the past few months, including a strong U.S. dollar, weakened economic markets abroad, lower crude oil prices, the West Coast ports slowdown and weather. These challenges have slowed activity in the sector since November. The latest Beige Book discussed these headwinds. The year-over-year pace of manufacturing production in March was 2.4 percent, down from 4.5 percent in November. Meanwhile, total industrial production, which includes mining and utilities, fell 0.6 percent in March, declining for the third time in the past four months. As such, the data suggest manufacturers have started the new year on a very soft note despite optimism for better demand and output moving forward. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – March 30, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

As we have seen in past weeks, economic data continue to reflect dampened activity in the early months of 2015 as a result of a number of significant headwinds. These challenges range from weak economic growth abroad, to a significantly strengthened U.S. dollar, to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. Weather and the West Coast ports slowdown have also been relevant factors in some of the softness that we have seen in the reports released since December. As a result, the first quarter is likely to grow around 1.8 percent. This would be less than the 2.2 percent growth rate in real GDP seen during the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, I am predicting 2.8 percent growth in real GDP in 2015, reflecting a slight deceleration in my outlook for the year. The expectation is that we will see some rebounds moving forward, with manufacturers continuing to be more upbeat about the coming months, even with some challenges likely to continue. (continue reading…)

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University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Declined Unexpectedly Again in March

The University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters said that consumer confidence unexpectedly slipped for the second straight month. The Consumer Sentiment Index has dropped from 98.1 in January to a revised 95.4 in February to 91.2 in March, according to preliminary data. The January figure had been the highest level in 11 years. Americans continue to be more positive today than one year ago, with the index measuring 80.0 in March 2014, and as such, the longer-term trend remains positive.

However, these data also suggest that the public remains anxious, mirroring the caution seen in recent retail sales data. The University of Michigan survey indicates some easing in both current and expected measures over the past two months. Final data will be released on March 27.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers. 

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