Tag: construction spending

Monday Economic Report – May 4, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

The U.S. economy stagnated in the first quarter, with real GDP growing by just 0.2 percent. This compares to a consensus estimate of 1.1 percent, and it was lower than the 5.0 percent and 2.2 percent growth rates observed in the third and fourth quarters of 2014, respectively. As one might expect from a data point that is just shy of zero, the underlying contributions to growth were mixed. Net exports and government spending were drags on activity in the first quarter, particularly with headwinds from a stronger dollar. Consumer spending on goods and nonresidential fixed investment were also weak, with the latter experiencing sharp declines stemming from the energy market and its supply chain. The bright spots—to the extent that you could call them that—were service-sector spending and a rebound in inventories. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – March 9, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

According to the latest NAM/IndustryWeek Survey of Manufacturers, which will be released this morning, business leaders remain mostly confident about activity over the coming months. In fact, 88.5 percent of respondents said they were either somewhat or very positive about the own company’s outlook, and the data are consistent with 3 percent growth in manufacturing production over the next two quarters. Yet, manufacturers who replied to this survey were slightly less upbeat than they were three months ago, when 91.2 percent of respondents were positive in their outlook. Sales, exports and hiring expectations over the next 12 months also decelerated slightly, even as they remain improved from the paces seen a year ago. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – February 9, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

Manufacturers in the United States have added roughly 18,800 workers per month on average over the past 13 months, with an average of 29,000 from October through January. This suggests that the momentum in demand and production in the second half of 2014 has led to an uptick in hiring, which is encouraging. Income growth was also higher, with average weekly earnings up 2.0 percent year-over-year in January. At the same time, the larger economy has also seen strong growth, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by nearly 260,000 per month since the end of 2013. The unemployment rate edged up to 5.7 percent, however, as more Americans re-entered the labor force looking for work. The participation rate rose from 62.7 percent to 62.9 percent. (continue reading…)

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Manufacturing Construction Spending Rose in December, Was Up Strongly in 2014

The Census Bureau said that manufacturing construction increased 1.9 percent in December, rising to an annualized $60.39 billion. This was the highest level since May 2009. Manufacturers spending on construction projects were up sharply from the $51.04 pace observed in December 2013, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.3 percent. As such, this data suggests that manufacturing leaders have enough confidence in their outlook to warrant additional construction investment, which is encouraging. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – January 5, 2015

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

Growth in manufacturing activity slowed somewhat in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The headline purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped from 58.7 in November to 55.5 in December, its lowest level in six months. Slower global growth, reduced commodity prices and the West Coast ports slowdown were cited in the ISM report as reasons for the decline. While this report was disappointing, it is notable that the lower figure followed several months of very healthy expansions in both new orders and production, and manufacturers were more upbeat at year’s end than earlier in the year. The manufacturing PMI data averaged 57.7 in the second half of 2014, an improvement from the 54.0 average observed in the first half. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – December 8, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

This morning, we will release the results from the latest NAM/IndustryWeek Survey of Manufacturers. Business leaders continue to reflect optimism about the coming months, with 91.2 percent of survey respondents saying they are either somewhat or very positive about their own company’s outlook. Moreover, manufacturers predict growth of 4.5 percent in sales and 2.1 percent in employment  over the next 12 months, with both experiencing the strongest pace in at least two years. (continue reading…)

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Manufacturing Construction Rebounded in November

The Census Bureau said that manufacturing construction increased 3.4 percent in October, rebounding from the 0.9 percent decline observed in September. Manufacturers devoted an annualized $57.42 billion to construction projects in October, up from $55.55 billion in September. More importantly, it was up from $46.67 billion in October 2013, with a year-over-year gain of 23.0 percent. This upward trend bodes well for the manufacturing sector, suggesting that business leaders have enough confidence in their outlook to warrant additional construction investment. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – November 10, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

yoy manufacturing sector employment - nov2014Last week, we received a number of encouraging reports on the state of the manufacturing sector and the U.S. economy. The Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rebounded, up from 56.6 in September to 59.0 in October. This brought the index back up to where it was in August, with both readings at their highest levels since March 2011. This suggests that the manufacturing sector was making healthy gains as we began the fourth quarter, and as further evidence, demand and production were both higher in October. In fact, the new orders and output indices have now been 60 or greater for six straight months. Hiring also picked up. (continue reading…)

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Manufacturing Construction Eased in September, But Longer-Term Trend Remained Positive

The Census Bureau said that manufacturing construction spending declined 1.1 percent in September. Manufacturers devoted an annualized $54.26 billion to construction projects in September, down from $54.87 billion in August. Yet, the sector has continued to edge their construction spending higher since bottoming out at $46.84 billion in March, an increase of 15.8 percent. Therefore, despite the slight decrease in September, manufacturers have stepped up their investments in new structures, which is consistent with the recent pickup in demand and output. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – October 6, 2014

Here are the files for this week’s Monday Economic Report: 

Several recent indicators have shown marked improvements in the U.S. economy and for manufacturing activity, particularly when compared to earlier in the year. These range from the NAM/IndustryWeek Survey of Manufacturers to increased levels of demand and output. Last week, for instance, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the pace of production (up from 64.5 to 64.6) was marginally higher in September, with the index exceeding 60—indicating strong growth—for four consecutive months. Likewise, the new orders index has measured 60 or higher for three straight months, even though it eased somewhat in September (down from 66.7 to 60.0). That was an encouraging sign, and it was consistent with a relatively upbeat outlook as noted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

Yet, the headline ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing unexpectedly dropped from 59.0 to 56.6. The prior month’s reading had been a three-year high, making the deceleration in sentiment a bit of a disappointment. The drop stemmed from slower paces of growth for domestic sales, exports (down from 55.0 to 53.5) and employment (down from 58.1 to 54.6). Along those lines, manufacturers added just 4,000 net new workers in September, with August’s employment number revised lower to reflect a decline of 4,000 employees for the sector. As such, we have had two straight months of disappointing manufacturing jobs numbers, which stand in stark contrast to the stronger hiring rates seen prior to August. We can hope for healthier job gains in the coming months, which would be more consistent with the mostly optimistic tone seen in other measures.

Indeed, the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank’s manufacturing survey noted robust pickups in production, capacity utilization and shipments in September, and respondents continue to expect stronger activity levels over the next six months. In addition, factory shipments have risen 2.1 percent year-to-date through August, or 3.1 percent over the past 12 months. The corresponding data on new factory orders reflected a sharp decline in August, but that was the result of very strong nondefense aircraft sales in July. While new manufactured goods sales remained soft when excluding transportation orders, the underlying data also reflect gains made since the winter months. Moreover, manufacturers have been confident enough in their outlook to increase construction spending, which rose 1.5 percent in August, increasing for the fifth straight month. Year-over-year growth in manufacturing construction spending was an impressive 14.9 percent.

At the consumer level, personal spending rebounded in August after holding steading in July. Since winter-related declines in January, personal spending has risen 2.7 percent, with 4.1 percent growth year-over-year. Strength in durable goods purchases boosted the August consumption figure. Still, Americans remain anxious, particularly about labor and income growth. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined from 93.4 in August to 86.0 in September, a notable and sizable decrease especially after the index had been at its highest point since October 2007 in August. It is possible that geopolitical events have put the public on edge, dampening enthusiasm. (The same could probably be said of the ISM report discussed above.) We have similar concerns in comparable data from the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters, and the two releases support the notion that the consumer remains cautious despite recent improvements in sentiment.

Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed from $40.32 billion in July to $40.11 billion in August, its lowest level since January. In general, we have seen the trade deficit decline after peaking at $45.98 billion in April. Since then, goods exports have increased by $3.79 billion, and goods imports have declined by $1.99 billion, helping to explain the bulk of the shift over that four-month period. Much of that improvement can be explained by increased energy exports and reduced energy imports.

After a busy economic data release calendar last week, this week will be much lighter. The minutes of the September 16–17 Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released on Wednesday, with market watchers looking for clues for when the Federal Reserve will start raising short-term rates. Other highlights include the latest data on consumer credit, job openings and wholesale trade.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers. 

manufacturing construction - oct2014

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