The Chinese Ideogram for Economic Stimulus Is…?

From the Washington Post, “China Unveils $586 Billion Stimulus Plan“:

In a wide-ranging plan that economists are comparing to the New Deal, the government said it would ease credit restrictions, expand social welfare services and launch an infrastructure spending program that would include the construction of new railways, roads and airports.

Launch an infrastructure spending program? The new burst of infrastructure spending — assuming it really is new — actually comes on top of an massive, multiyear outlay for roads and bridges, rail, airports and ports. From The Economist in February 2008, “Rushing on by road, rail and air“:

China’s rapid economic growth and equally rapid integration into the global economic system is putting huge strains on its infrastructure. This has led to a spate of spending on transport. Between 2001 and the end of 2005 more was spent on roads, railways and other fixed assets than was spent in the previous 50 years. According to the state media, investment will see double-digit growth every year for the rest of the decade. Between 2006 and 2010, $200 billion is expected to be invested in railways alone, four times more than in the previous five years.

At first the parallels of the new Chinese plan to proposed U.S. stimulus measures struck our fancy: See, China’s becoming more like us! But then the troubling question occurs, fleetingly: Or are we becoming more like China?

In any case, the Asian markets are happy today.

 

This Week on America’s Business

Americas-Business-logo.jpgNational Association of Manufacturers Executive Vice President Jay Timmons is on the road attending the Democratic National Convention in Denver and next week’s Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St.Paul.

Timmons, a guest on this week’s “America’s Business” with Mike Hambrick, says Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) made history by becoming the first African American nominated to the White House. However, Obama needs to give voters more details on his policies to help manufacturers and workers, he said.

Meanwhile, Timmons said prospective Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) made a smart move Friday in selecting Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. She could attract some of the supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) to the Republican fold, he said.

“If there are those who are looking at this as an opportunity for women to provie they can lead the nation then certainly she can attract some of those former Hillary supporters,” Timmons said of Gov. Palin.

All that talk about American jobs moving overseas may be overblown. We’ll be joined by Exxel Outdoors founder and Chief Executive Officer Harry Kazazian to discuss why his company is moving sleeping bag production back to the United States from China.

America has a hard time balancing its check book. The White House recently announced the federal budget deficit will hit a record $482 billion for the year ended September 2009. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget President Maya MacGuineas will join us to talk about what effect this massive deficit will have on our economy.

This is the Labor Day holiday weekend. That means its time to get the annual Labor Day economic report from National Association of Manufacturers Chief Economist Dave Huether. Dave will talk about how trade and exports have proven to be a bright spot in the economy.

And with fall approaching football is in the air. Mike will chat with Wilson Sporting Goods plant manager Daniel Riegle about football manufacturing and Wilson’s close ties with the NFL.

In our regular segments, Renee Giachino of American Justice Partnership gives us the latest on tort reform and commentator Hank Cox recalls “The Way It Was.” And our program will close with “The Last Word” from the National Association of Manufacturers President Gov. John Engler.

For more about “America’s Business with Mike Hambrick” and to listen to the program online, please click here. And for video highlights and more, check out http://www.americasbusiness.org.

Engler and the NAM: China Not Overtaking U.S. Manufacturing

A Financial Times story about a study that predicted China overtaking the United States as the world’s top manufacturers drew a fair amount of attention last week. Unfortunately, it misstated the views of NAM’s President  and CEO John Engler, who writes a corrective column that appears in the Monday edition.

From “American industry can stay ahead of China“:

According to a report last week in the Financial Times, China is now reverting to form as the world’s workshop and will overtake the US as the world’s largest manufacturer next year. I and members of the National Association of Manufacturers strongly disagree with this prediction.

China has a long way to go to catch up with the US. The NAM’s analysis shows that in terms of real manufacturing value-added (price-adjusted, to reflect the quantity of output) the US remains by far the world’s largest manufacturer, producing nearly one-fourth of the world’s industrial output. Based on the highly respected World Bank database, our analysis also shows that we will produce twice as much this year as the fourth placed economy, China (the European Union and Japan are in second and third position, respectively). Even in current measures of manufacturing denominated in dollars (which inflate China’s position because of the rising yuan and other factors), China will produce only about 60 per cent as much as the US in 2008.

Far from overtaking the US next year, if China were to be able to continue its rapid 10 per cent-plus real annual rate of manufacturing growth, it would not equal US manufacturing production until nearly 2020. Moreover, given the constraints China is beginning to face, its ability to maintain that torrid growth is highly questionable.

Let me be clear. The only way China could surpass US manufacturing next year would be for the US to encounter an economic catastrophe of some kind. That would not be wholesome for us or anyone. It is possible – but not certain – that China may, in some future decade, become the world’s largest manufacturer. If this occurred because the Chinese economy moved away from export-led growth and began to see the type of domestic-led growth that Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary, has been trying to get them to adopt, this could elevate China’s living standard and create more demand for all goods and services in China – including imports from the US and the rest of the world. That would be a positive contribution to the global economy.

Here is the correction:

Correction: US National Association of Manufacturers
Published: August 18 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 18 2008 03:00* Comments from the US National Association of Manufacturers included in an article on August 11 about forecasts for Chinese manufacturing made by Global Insight were wrongly attributed to John Engler, NAM president.

This Week on America’s Business Radio

Americas-Business-logo.jpgThe United Space Alliance aerospace company manufactures special tiles that protect space shuttles from the fiery heat they encounter when re-entering Earth’s atmosphere.

The company wanted to cut down on waste in space shuttle tile production. So they turned to Microsoft Corp. Visio software and the ProModel Corp. Process Simulator to get the job done. Visio is software that helps businesses visualize systems, processes and other information while Process Simulator is a Visio plug-in.

United Space Alliance representative David Tucker, a guest on this week’s “America’s Business with Mike Hambrick” radio program, says the results were better than expected. Accompanying Tucker on the program is Microsoft representative Ingo Heel and ProModel Consulting Services Vice President Bruce Gladwin.

“I can tell you to triple the production requirements and not have to hire anybody new or buy any new equipment was a pretty amazing feat,” Tucker says. “So we were able to do that without tripling our resource requirements. We used what we had.”

Reporter James Fallows, a frequent contributor to Atlantic Monthly magazine, returns to “America’s Business” this week to continue his conversation about China’s environmental problems. China is one of the fastest growing economies in the world but lags far behind the United States when it comes to keeping air and water clean.

Nuclear energy could be an important component in making America independent of expensive imported oil. And a recent report from the Clean and Safe Energy Coalition (CASEnergy) says a renaissance of America’s nuclear power industry could create thousands of high-paying jobs.

Former Environmental Protection Agency Administrator and former New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, co-chair of CASEnergy, will join Mike to talk about that report.

In our regular segments, Renee Giachino of American Justice Partnership gives us the latest on tort reform and commentator Hank Cox recalls “The Way It Was.” And the National Association of Manufacturers President Gov. John Engler will close the program with “The Last Word.”

For more about “America’s Business with Mike Hambrick” and to listen to the program online, please click here. And for video highlights and more, check out www.americasbusiness.org.

This Week on America’s Business Radio

Americas-Business-logo.jpgRep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) is pushing legislation to begin oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to help ease soaring gasoline prices. But Bartlett, who was the first congressman to buy a gas-stingy Toyota Prius, said federal revenue from ANWR oil drilling will be used to develop alternative fuels.

“Well, I always was opposed to drilling in ANWR unless we used the revenues we got from ANWR to invest in alternatives,” says Bartlett, a guest on this week’s “America’s Business with Mike Hambrick” radio program. “We desperately need to develop alternatives and I thought that would provide some leverage to get us going on developing alternatives.”

China is one of the fastest growing economies in the world but is grappling with a huge pollution problem. Smog is so thick in Beijing some observers say it could hamper the performance of athletes at the Olympic Games. Reporter James Fallows, a regular contributor to Atlantic Monthly, will join Mike to talk about what China is doing to clean up its air, soil and water.

Federal tax credits to boost research and development help foster innovation and create jobs. But Congress often lets these credits lapse. Tom Neubig of Ernst & Young, author of a recent report on R&D tax credits, will talk about the huge benefit thee credits give manufacturing.

With gasoline prices so high wouldn’t it be nice if you could make your own fuel at home? Well, now you can. E-Fuel Corp. Chief Executive Officer Thomas Quinn will introduce us to a machine his company makes that lets consumers produce their own ethanol using sugar, yeast and water.

And America’s Business will visit Patriots Technology Training Center in Seat Pleasant, Maryland. President Thurman Jones will talk about his mission to use recreational activities to teach children and teenagers about robotics, science and math. These skills could one day help them in manufacturing careers.

In our regular segments, Renee Giachino of American Justice Partnership gives us the latest on tort reform and commentator Hank Cox recalls “The Way It Was.” And the National Association of Manufacturers President Gov. John Engler will close the program with “The Last Word.”

For more about “America’s Business with Mike Hambrick” and to listen to the program online, please click here. And for video highlights and more, check out www.americasbusiness.org.

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