Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Suddenly, in the midst of decent and cautiously optimistic U.S. growth, world economic markets have begun to focus on the banking crisis in Cyprus. With GDP of around $25 billion, Cyprus has seen its problems once again bring Europe’s sovereign debt challenges to the forefront of economic discussion. Cypriot lawmakers have struggled to find a way to bail out their banking system, particularly after attempts to tax depositors failed. The deal announced over the weekend was negotiated so that Cyprus could remain in the European Union. It was that prospect that has sent equity markets lower last week, particularly in Europe, on fears of how the crisis in Cyprus might spread to other countries.

Of course, Cyprus is not Europe’s only problem. The Eurozone is mired in a prolonged recession. As we have discussed in the monthly Global Manufacturing Economic Update, real GDP and employment continue to decline in the continent, with weaknesses even in Germany, its largest country. The Markit Flash Eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped from 47.8 in February to 46.5 in March. This measure has contracted every month since July 2011. This latest report states that sales, output and hiring were all lower, and the prospects for improvements in April do not look good.

The data stand in contrast to what we are seeing elsewhere. Markit Flash PMI data for China and the United States reflect continuing, albeit modest, growth in manufacturing activity in both countries. In its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement last week, the Federal Reserve Board noted recent progress in many economic indicators, which had “paused” at the end of last year due to the fiscal cliff and weather-related concerns. Even with these improvements, the Federal Reserve continues to worry about slow economic growth and elevated unemployment rates. As such, it will continue to make purchases of $85 billion in long-term and mortgage-backed securities for the foreseeable future. In the short term, the Federal Reserve will be closely watching the impact of across-the-board budget cuts and the debt ceiling debate, both of which could put a dent in real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2013. (continue reading…)

Markit reported this morning that the Chinese economy continued to grow in February, but at a somewhat slower pace. The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which is prepared by Markit, declined from 52.3 in January to 50.4 in February. The good news is that this index has been in expansion territory for four straight months (having contracted for 12 months prior to that). On the negative side, many of the subcomponents of this index eased in February, signifying a slower pace of activity.

Indeed, the index for output decreased from 52.7 to 51.2, and new orders dropped from 52.7 to 51.2. Hiring activity also slowed down, off from 51.2 to 50.5, indicating employment growth just barely above being flat. There were some measures which were contracting, including new export orders, inventories, and backlogs of work. The export sales figure shifted from just above neutral (50.1) to just barely below it (49.8).

These facts notwithstanding, we still expect for the Chinese economy to grow in 2013, picking up the pace from some of the weaknesses observed last year. The most recent real GDP figures suggested growth of 7.9 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2012. The forecasts for the current quarter are for growth just barely over 8 percent, with industrial production at the 10.5 percent rate. Therefore, the underlying story line of progress in the China’s economy is not altered by the latest Markit readings of slower activity in February.

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

Here is the summary for this month’s Global Manufacturing Economic Update:

The new year has begun with some stronger economic data worldwide. While persistent challenges remain—most notably in Europe, but also some lingering fiscal worries in the United States—the overriding trend has been for some modest gains in new orders, production and hiring in a number of key markets for U.S.-manufactured goods. Seven of the top 10 export markets have economies that are expanding, and there were signs that the pace of the contraction in Europe and Japan eased a little. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the Eurozone rose from 46.1 in December to 47.9 in January. The largest improvements in manufacturing, however, were in Asia, where the pace of industrial production has picked up some steam in the past few months. This news spreads beyond China and into other parts of Asia as well.

Our largest trading partners are Canada and Mexico. Much like the United States, Canada’s economy appears to have stalled of late. This is not surprising given the closeness of our two nations in terms of commerce. U.S. frustrations with the fiscal cliff and upcoming federal budgetary battles tend to resonate beyond our borders, with the effects most felt in Canada. Real GDP is expected to grow around 2 percent this year in Canada, mirroring the forecasts for the United States and essentially repeating last year’s rate. Reflecting these trends, Canada’s PMI suggested very slow growth in January, unchanged from December. Mexico’s economy, meanwhile, decelerated throughout much of the second half of 2012, both leading up to and after its presidential elections. Some of the slowdown involved a wait-and-see approach as business leaders assessed the impact of possible new policies coming from the new presidential administration. Industrial production and PMI values tend to reflect this easing, but Mexican real GDP is still expected to grow 3.8 percent in 2013, which is a solid number.

Even with the progress in foreign markets, the most recent international trade figures were a bit of a surprise. The U.S. trade deficit declined sharply from $48.6 billion in November to $38.5 billion in December. Changes in the petroleum balance partially contributed to the decline, but in general, it was a healthy increase in goods exports corresponding with a decrease in goods imports. For the year as a whole, U.S.-manufactured goods exports rose 4.9 percent in 2012 at the non-seasonally adjusted rate, well below the 15 percent rate necessary for the United States to double exports by 2015. While we were on pace for that in 2011, a number of headwinds globally—including a recession in Europe and slowdowns elsewhere—eased the growth of new export sales significantly in 2012, frustrating manufacturers in the United States. Perhaps the improvements noted in this document more recently will bode well for better export figures in 2013.

Next week, we will be closely following industrial production and GDP releases worldwide. Provisional GDP in the Eurozone is expected to show continental output shrinking around 0.3 percent, with data from a number of member countries reflecting weaker conditions as well. Similarly, Eurozone industrial production is forecasted to fall 1.4 percent. Outside of Europe, China will release its trade figures at the beginning of the week, and if recent surveys are accurate, its exports should be improving. In the United States, the Federal Reserve Board will unveil its latest industrial production figures, with an expected slight gain in January.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

Below is the summary from this month’s Global Manufacturing Economic Update:

The global economy remains fragile, but there have been some positive signs during the past month. China’s economy began to expand (albeit marginally) for the first time in 13 months, with overall activity accelerating. Other countries also improved last month, even if some of them continue to have a Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) value below 50—the threshold for contraction. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.8 to 49.7, or near neutral in terms of manufacturing behavior. Sales and employment appear to have stabilized even in Europe, which remains mired in fiscal and economic challenges. The Eurozone is in a recession, with real GDP lower in two consecutive quarters (down by 0.1 percent in the third quarter), but several countries saw improvements.

At the same time, the North American market appears to be decelerating. Other nations are concerned about our nation’s ability to avert the fiscal cliff. This is especially true with our closest trading partners in North America. Canada and Mexico continue to expand, but at a slower pace. Real GDP in Canada eased to 0.6 percent growth during the third quarter, and its PMI dropped from 51.4 to 50.4. In Mexico, real GDP also weakened, decelerating to 4.4 percent, with the slower pace largely the result of weakening demand for manufacturing exports. Of course, the dominant player in North America is the United States, and worries about the fiscal cliff and softer new orders have negatively impacted industrial production and business confidence. Hurricane Sandy also has been a factor. The latest NAM/IndustryWeek Survey of Manufacturers illustrates how diminished optimism has reduced hiring and capital spending plans.

Despite major headwinds, U.S. exports continue to be a strength for the macroeconomy and for manufacturers. Net exports provided a positive contribution to real GDP growth during the third quarter, and year-to-date manufactured goods exports through September were 6.1 percent higher relative to the same time period in 2011 on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis. While this represents a significant slowdown, it is nonetheless impressive given global weaknesses. Moreover, more than 40 percent of manufacturers in the NAM/IndustryWeek survey said that increasing international sales was a primary driver of growth for their businesses, and those firms that expected growing exports were more optimistic in their outlook than those that were not.

Next week, the Commerce Department will release new international trade data. The October trade balance is not expected to change dramatically, but we will be looking for indications of continued modest growth in U.S.-manufactured goods exports. Other highlights will be updates on industrial production in a number of European countries and the United States. On the policy front, Congress has now ensured manufacturers can get the full benefits of Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks are moving forward, trade talks with the European Union (EU) are still under discussion, Ukraine is seeking to raise tariffs and U.S. investment treaty talks are heating up.

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

Below is the summary of this month’s Global Manufacturing Economic Update, with the full report found here:

In the past month, there have been some signs that the overall global economy is improving, despite significant headwinds. We continue to see modest growth in North America, including the United States and our largest trading partners, Canada and Mexico. Both Brazil and China have seen gains in production activity, with Brazil edging into expansion territory (with a Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of 50.2) and China just barely there (49.5). (PMI values over 50 suggest that manufacturing activity is expanding, with contractions for values under 50.) This is not to suggest that these nations’ economies are strong, as persistent weaknesses continue to dampen growth, but it does indicate a more positive picture than seen in other regions of the world, most notably in Europe.

Manufacturing activity in the Eurozone is off sharply. The Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell from 46.1 in September to 45.3 in October. Declining new orders continue to reduce production and employment across the continent. October manufacturing PMI values from Markit show contracting activity levels, even as some indices improved for the month. This includes France (43.5, up from 42.7), Germany (45.7, down from 47.4) and the United Kingdom (47.7, down from 48.4). At the same time, these data are supported by reports that Eurozone industrial production has fallen nearly 3 percent over the past year, and unemployment has risen to an all-time high of 11.6 percent. (Spain’s unemployment rate is a whopping 25.8 percent.) Nonetheless, despite these dire statistics, it is important to note that the European Central Bank’s actions—including its program to purchase sovereign debt from troubled nations—has lifted spirits somewhat, even if it has not solved the underlying structural challenges.

As noted last time, six of the top 10 export markets for U.S.-manufactured goods are currently contracting, with PMI values of less than 50. This complicates our ability to increase exports. The most recent data suggest that the U.S. trade deficit widened in August on lower goods exports and imports. Higher petroleum costs accounted for much of this, but there were also significant declines in other categories, including industrial supplies, foods and consumer goods. On the other hand, year-to-date manufactured goods exports were $43.6 billion higher in 2012 than for the same period in 2011. While this suggests a much slower pace than in 2010 or 2011 (mostly due to the slower global economic environment), it is perhaps surprising that export growth is positive at all given the number of headwinds in the marketplace right now.

Over the course of the next week, several PMI reports will come out providing even greater detail on the current global manufacturing environment. This will culminate in the release of the JPMorgan Global Composite PMI on Tuesday, which summarizes activity across 32 different countries. The last one observed falling output, new orders and employment across the world manufacturing sector, with some countries helping to lift the index from 48.1 to 48.9. I would expect this figure to reflect some gains overall but continuing to contract. The other highlight of the week will come on Thursday, with the release of new international trade data for September.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist at the National Association of Manufacturers.

New data from Markit provides mixed news for manufacturers and the economy. First, the Markit Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) continues to show modest growth for the United States. The “flash” PMI – which is an advance measure of the final PMI data using 85 to 90 percent of the total responses – edged slightly higher from 51.7 in July to 51.9 in August. A small increase was observed in output and new orders, which helped to push the composite figure higher. Pricing pressures also continue to ease.

Still, it is important to keep in mind that manufacturing activity remains sub-par. According to their press release, August’s PMI is the “third-lowest reading in 35 months.” This includes having employment growth at its slowest pace in a year and a half. Not only were many of the components decelerating from earlier in the year, but some of them were shrinking outright. For instance, new export orders remain virtually unchanged at 48.7 in August, with values under 50 suggesting contracting activity.

Falling export orders are the result of slowing global activity. The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI was mostly unchanged, up from 46.5 in July to 46.6 in August. This was the seventh consecutive monthly contraction, with the Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 45.3. New orders and employment continue to fall, as the continent grapples with the economic consequences of its sovereign debt crisis.

This includes even the strongest economies globally. The Flash German Manufacturing PMI is currently 45.1, up slightly from 43.0 last month. The key point is that manufacturing remains very weak, with similar findings in France (46.2) and China (47.8). The coming weeks will bring new data on other countries, as well. For China, the Flash Manufacturing PMI figure was the lowest in nine months, with falling new orders, exports, and employment. Its press release says, “… Chinese producers are still struggling with strong global headwinds.”

Indeed, these figures provide further evidence that the global economy is slowing, and while the U.S. manufacturing sector continues to have modest gains, there are significant headwinds on the horizon. The Institute for Supply Management, which also produces a PMI report, has found that the U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted for two consecutive months, led by declining new sales. As such, we will be closely looking at the latest ISM figures, which will be released on September 4^th, to see how the slowing global economy and uncertainty domestically impact U.S. manufacturing activity.c

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

With consumers and businesses more confident, the U.S. economy continues to expand modestly. An improved – but still weaker-than-desired – jobs picture is part of that. The U.S. added 227,000 net new jobs in February, or 1.2 million in the past six months. Manufacturing has played a significant role in the recent rebound and since the end of the recession. In fact, over the past three months, manufacturers have added 111,000 new workers as overall activity has picked up. The manufacturing sector has contributed over 13 percent of all net new jobs created in the nonfarm economy since December 2010.

To be fair, the recent job gains in manufacturing have not been as broad-based as we might prefer. They have stemmed primarily from durable goods producing industries, with nondurables continuing to lag. This trend has been fairly consistent over the past two years, yet it would be nice to see greater employment gains across-the-board. Of course, this also mirrors industrial production data, with stronger growth tending to concentrate among the motor vehicle, aerospace, fabricated metals, machinery and primary metals sectors.

One of the larger threats to growth is a slower global economy. Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank president, announced a lower forecast for real GDP growth, with output slightly contracting for the continent as a whole this year. Meanwhile, other economies are also slowing. China, for instance, just cut its growth target to 7.5 percent. This slower growth shows up in the international trade figures released on Friday. Goods exports dropped in most regions of the world, including those to China and Europe. Increased imports of petroleum were another factor, with the overall trade deficit widening for the third consecutive month.

This week, we will gain further insights into the strength of the current rebound. New industrial production figures will be released on Friday, following regional survey data from New York and Philadelphia. The Federal Reserve Board will also announce on Tuesday whether or not it intends to pursue any new monetary policies. As always, the Fed will be mindful of inflation, and later in the week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue updates on both consumer and producer prices. In addition to those releases, other highlights for the week include updates on consumer and small business sentiment, job market turnover and retail sales.  

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau reported that the U.S. trade deficit grew from $50.4 billion in December to $52.6 billion in January. Americans imported $233.4 billion in goods and services for the month (up from $228.7 billion the previous month) and exported $180.8 billion (up from $178.2 billion). This was the third consecutive month of a widening trade deficit, and the highest that it has been since October 2008.

A widening of the deficit for petroleum was the largest factor behind this month’s higher overall deficit. Exports of petroleum dropped from $10.6 billion to $9.4 billion; at the same time, imports grew from $37.8 billion to $39.1 billion.

The trade deficit for goods widened in the month, while there was a modest improvement in the services sector. The value of U.S. manufactured goods exported in January was $77.2 billion, down from $83.0 in December. Despite the decline, exports are still up overall from the $70.8 billion registered in January 2011.

Among goods exports, areas of strength included capital goods excluding automotive (up $1.3 billion), automotive vehicles and parts (up $1.05 billion) and foods, feeds and beverages (up $97 million). Declining exports were found among industrial supplies (down $295 million), consumer goods (down $215 million) and other goods (down $548 million). Meanwhile, the largest increases among goods imports were found in automotive vehicles (up $2.4 billion), industrial supplies (up $1.1 billion) and foods, feeds and beverages (up $437 million).

One of the things that definitely stands out with these numbers is the impact of slowing global growth. This is clear with both Europe (with exports falling from $27.2 billion to $24.5 billion) and China (down from $10.1 billion to $8.1 billion). Europe is currently in a recession, and China just announced slower growth targets for this year.

Overall, these figures show that exports have slowed recently due to weaknesses in the global economy. With import growth outstripping export growth, our trade balance has widened. For manufacturers – which contribute 60 percent of our total exports – it will be important for us to regain our footing by selling more of our goods overseas.

This, of course, will hinge on faster growth around the world, but it will also depend heavily on adding new markets and exploring new opportunities abroad. For this, policymakers can be helpful. Among their top priorities: getting the Export-Import Bank reauthorized. Beyond that, Washington should work to expand the number of trade agreements for greater access to new markets.

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

The NAM welcomes the quick bipartisan, bicameral Congressional work in tandem with the Administration to fix a critical flaw in U.S. trade policy – the inability to defend against Chinese subsidized exports to the United States. Legislation is needed to correct a court’s finding that the Commerce Department currently lacks the authority to offset the harm done to U.S. manufacturers by these trade-distorting subsidies.  

Legislation is now being introduced in both the House and Senate to solve that problem, and this legislation needs to be passed on an urgent basis.  Failure to make it plain that the Commerce Department has this authority would leave manufacturers in the U.S. defenseless against rampant deep pocket Chinese and other government subsidies. 

World Trade Organization (WTO) provisions prohibit subsidies, saying subsidies should have no place in world trade.  U.S. law needs to apply equally to subsidies from non-market as well as market economies, and that’s what the new legislation would do. 

Some groups have amazingly has come out against this legislation, saying it restricts economic liberty.  Being concerned about economic liberty, they should have come out strongly in support of the bills because the legislation is about removing government distortion of trade.

When China or another non-market economy provides government subsidies to promote unfair trade and take jobs away from American manufacturers, the U.S. countervailing duty laws offset that subsidy and return trade to the market-oriented basis where it should have been in the first place.  How these groups could come out in favor of Chinese subsidies and against free markets is truly baffling. 

Countervailing duties aren’t anti-growth – It is Chinese and other non-market economy subsidies that are anti-growth – anti our growth.

The NAM seeks urgent Congressional action not just to allow manufacturers in the U.S. to be shielded from new subsidies, but to avoid taking away the 24 existing countervailing duty orders against non-market economies that are already in effect.  Were these orders to evaporate, hundreds – possibly thousands – of American manufacturers, including the supply chains of directly affected companies, and many thousands of workers would be put at immediate risk.

Frank Vargo is vice president of international economic affairs, National Association of Manufacturers.

The concern over rare earth minerals and manufacturers’ ability to obtain them is real. The need for these minerals is great, as they are used in the defense industry, as well as in consumer electronics and petroleum refining.    Their extraction is economically and environmentally costly, and America’s dependence upon other nations to supply these is nearly absolute.

China now produces 97% of the world’s supply and has a monopoly over these minerals.  Such dependence is bad for manufacturing and bad for America. The only real solution to this problem is for the U.S. to re-open its mines and re-start the process of extracting these resources. 

Several pieces of legislation have been introduced in Congress, as legislators realize the importance of this issue for our country and for manufacturers. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) has introduced legislation addressing the shortage of rare earth minerals and the bill has several provisions that are important for addressing this issue.  As this debate continues, it is vital that lawmakers carefully review the various proposals and take into account the factors that are important to job creators.

A thoughtful solution needs to be implemented swiftly to bring domestic mining and processing of these minerals back on line.