Automated Data Processing (ADP) reported that nonfarm payrolls rose 215,000 in December, its strongest gain since February. The bulk of these jobs stemmed from the service sector (up 187,000), but there was also a healthy contribution from construction (up 39,000). The latter was the result of an improving housing market.

In contrast to these more-positive numbers, manufacturing continues to struggle. Manufacturers lost 11,000 workers on net in December, or 65,000 over the past six months. Indeed, there have been notable declines in production and new orders in the second half of this year, with economic uncertainties and slowing global growth forcing many businesses to pull back. Employment in a number of sentiment surveys have also indicated some hesitance for additional hiring; although, that sentiment might change in the coming months if the economy appears to be firming up.

Medium-sized (e.g., those with 50-499 employees) and larger (e.g., 500 or more employees) businesses accounted for the bulk of the net job increases in December. In the two size groups, there were 102,000 and 87,000 additional employees on net, respectively. Smaller businesses with less than 50 employees contributed 25,000 workers to the total.

In addition to the sectors listed above, other industries with more workers in December included trade, transportation, and utilities (up 53,000), professional and business services (up 37,000), and financial activities (up 14,000).

Tomorrow, we will receive official government data on employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The consensus estimate is for 150,000 net new nonfarm workers, with manufacturing job gains continuing to be weak.

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

Automated Data Processing (ADP) reported that total nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in September, below the 189,000 workers added in August. This suggests modest growth in employment last month, and the figure was slightly above expectations, which were around 140,000. The bulk of the net new jobs came from the service sector, which added 144,000 employees on net.

Manufacturers hired just 4,000 more workers on net in September, making it the sixth consecutive month in a row of lackluster job growth for the sector. This corresponds with weaker global growth and rising anxieties about the future of the U.S. market. For the goods-producing sector as a whole (which would add construction, mining, and utilities), there was a net gain of 18,000 employees.

As with past reports, small and medium-sized establishments accounted for most of the net job gains, or 89.5 percent of them in September. In fact, large goods producers added just 1,000 workers for the month.

The ADP numbers are often looked at for clues regarding the official government employment statistics, which will be released on Friday morning. Last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported disappointing jobs numbers, with 96,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added and manufacturers shedding 15,000 workers. While these figures were below the estimates provided by ADP, it did suggest inadequate job gains since the spring, which was similar. (continue reading…)

Employers added 170,000 new nonfarm, private payrolls in January, according to Automated Data Processing (ADP). This builds on the solid growth of November and December but represents a fall-off from December’s 292,000 gain. As with last month’s report, most of the increase stemmed from additional service sector employment, which grew by 152,000. Manufacturers hired 10,000 net new workers in January.

Small and medium-sized payrolls (e.g., those with less than 500 employees) accounted for almost all of the net new jobs created in January, continuing a trend seen in past months, as well. In fact, 167,000 net new jobs stemmed from small and medium-sized entities, with larger establishments adding just 3,000. Among goods-producing firms, firms with larger payrolls reduced employment by a net 2,000 workers last month.

These numbers suggest that employment, while lower than the previous two months, continues to grow. The ADP figures were mostly in-line with estimates, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting similar numbers on Friday.

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers

Manufacturing employment rose by 7,000 in November, its first increase since June, according to Automated Data Processing (ADP) data released this morning. Total nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000. This was the largest jump of the year, followed closely by the increases in February and March of 205,000 and 203,000, respectively.

November’s gains came almost entirely from the service sector, which grew by 178,000 net new jobs.

In addition, small and medium-sized payrolls (e.g., those with less than 500 employees) accounted for the bulk of the net new jobs, continuing a familiar trend. This was true for both the goods-producing as well as the service-providing sectors. Of the 206,000 net new jobs created in November, 110,000 stemmed from small establishments with less than 50 employees, and 84,000 flowed from medium-sized entities with 50 to 499 employees.  

These numbers suggest that employment growth has picked up its pace from recent weaknesses. For manufacturers, these results mirror regional sentiment surveys which have found an increased ability to start hiring again. A similar finding will probably be found in Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; although, the current consensus forecast for nonfarm payrolls from BLS is closer to a net increase of 120,000 (rather than ADP’s larger figure).

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

Automated Data Processing (ADP) reported this morning that manufacturing employment fell by 4,000 workers in August, following the loss of 2,000 jobs in July. Overall, total nonfarm employment rose by 91,000, mostly from small- and medium-sized service providers. The goods-producing sector increased employment by 11,000, suggesting that there were gains outside of manufacturing in the construction and mining sectors. 

These numbers correspond with several regional indicators of manufacturing activity, which have shown either a slowdown in growth or a contraction in production and new orders, depending on the survey. New employment intentions have fallen in tandem.

Mirroring those other regional studies, the ISM-Chicago Business Barometer declined from 58.8 in July to 56.5 in August. While this figure represents growth in the sector – particularly with the barometer in positive territory for the 23^rd consecutive month – it also reflects a slowdown in overall manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. The index was 74.2 in March, for instance. Measures of production, new orders and inventories declined, as well. Employment intentions edged slightly higher, but remains much lower than earlier this year.

With the Institute for Supply Management purchasing number out tomorrow and official employment numbers for August due on Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we should expect to see more of the same story. Production activity has been slowing down of late, and this has impacted manufacturing employment. While many manufacturers anticipate activity picking up in the coming months (and hence, they will need additional workers), that will materialize, if it does, on subsequent reports.

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that total employment in July rose by 114,000, but manufacturing employment fell by 1,000. Given many of the weaknesses seen in recent surveys of manufacturers, the decline in employment should not be a surprise. It also mirrors many of these other indicators, with the employment rebound of June being offset in July.

The bulk of job creation in the month of July stemmed from small and medium-sized businesses, with 58,000 jobs being added by establishments with less than 50 employees and another 47,000 from those with 50 to 499 employees. The goods-producing sector lost 7,000 workers.

These numbers indicate modest growth in employment for the overall economy, but not enough to make a substantial dent in the unemployment rate. For manufacturers, it reflects many of the challenges that these firms have faced since March.

Looking ahead, it will be important for job growth to pick up for the manufacturing sector, particularly if the economy is to improve in the second half. Recent Federal Reserve Bank and other regional surveys have indicated an expectation of higher employment for the next six months, but those growth expectations have diminished somewhat from earlier in the year.

All of this leads us to the official numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which will be released on Friday. I would expect a similar result in terms of employment growth, both for total non-farm workers and for those in the manufacturing sector, as was seen in the ADP numbers released today.

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.