Manufacturing Production Declines for the Third Time in the Past Four Months

The Federal Reserve Board said that industrial production declined 0.5 percent in April, more than double the consensus expectation of 0.2 percent. For manufacturers, production activity fell 0.4 percent in April, after a 0.3 decrease in March. This was the third time so far in 2013 that manufacturing production has contracted, decelerating the year-over-year pace from 2.4 percent growth in December to 1.3 percent in April.

Manufacturing capacity has also fallen, down from 78.3 percent in March to 77.8 percent in April. This brings the utilization rate back to where it was at year’s end, erasing the capacity gains seen in the first four months of 2013.

Durable goods production fell 0.4 percent; whereas, production in the nondurable goods industries fell 0.1 percent. Declining levels of manufacturing activity were mostly across-the-board, with only four of the 19 major sectors experiencing a gain for the month. The four sectors with higher production in the month were plastics and rubber products (up 0.4 percent), chemicals (up 0.2 percent), computer and electronic products (up 0.2 percent), and food and beverages (up 0.2 percent).

The largest declines were seen in the nonmetallic mineral products (down 1.7 percent), apparel and leather (down 1.6 percent), petroleum and coal products (down 1.5 percent), motor vehicle and parts (down 1.3 percent), and miscellaneous durable goods (down 1.1 percent) sectors.

When combined with Empire State Manufacturing Survey data out this morning, we get a true sense of just the sluggishness of growth for the sector right now. With exports that are barely growing and domestic sales softened by higher payroll taxes, it is clear that the manufacturing sector has still not emerged from pullback in activity that we began to see in the second half of last year. Uncertainties about the economy and the impact of government budget cuts continue to persist, preventing manufacturers from making large gains to output and employment. (continue reading…)

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Empire State Survey Shows Contracting New Orders, Business Conditions

The New York Federal Reserve Bank found that manufacturing new orders and business conditions were lower in May. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s composite index of general business activity declined from 3.1 in April to -1.4 in May. This is the first contracting level for the index’s main measure since January, ending three months of growth. Still, more than anything, this statistic mostly observed how manufacturing activity has mostly stagnated in the past month or so. Indeed, 48.5 percent of survey respondents said that conditions had not changed, with those saying that they were better or worse nearly offsetting one another at 25.0 percent and 26.5 percent, respectively.

The subcomponents of the index tend to back this view up. The pace of new orders declined modestly on net, with its index down from 2.2 to -1.2. Other contracting figures included shipments (-0.02), unfilled orders (-6.8), delivery times (-3.4), inventories (-8.0), and the average workweek (-1.1). Pricing pressures eased somewhat for the month (down from 28.4 to 20.5), but still suggest decent growth. Nearly two-thirds of survey respondents, though, suggest that raw material prices had not changed in the past month.

Even as the average workweek was lower, it appears that manufacturers continue to hire, with its index down just modestly from 6.8 to 5.7. While 71.6 percent of respondents said that their employment levels had not changed in the past month, 17.1 percent noted increases, and 11.4 percent reported declines. Still, the net growth in hiring is perhaps surprising given the sluggishness of employment growth nationally and the other weaknesses in the Empire State survey.

Continued hiring could perhaps be explained by cautious optimism in the forward-looking measures. Those manufacturers in the New York Fed’s survey who complete this survey remain positive – albeit less so than last month – about increases in new orders, shipments, employment, and capital spending plans. One-quarter of respondents plan to hire more workers, over one-third expect to increase their capital investments, and nearly 40 percent anticipate higher sales.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

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STEM Fund Creation Approved for Immigration Reform Bill

The NAM is pleased that Senator Hatch’s amendment just passed by voice vote.  The amendment creates a green card fee whose funds will go to the states to focus on STEM education. This concept is also included in the Hatch Klobuchar I-Squared bill also supported by manufacturers. Investing in domestic STEM education is necessary for the success of US manufacturers. We need to improve the domestic pipeline of talent in the STEM fields to secure the next generation of scientists and researchers. We appreciate Senator Hatch and the committees’ strong support for this effort.

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Small Business Owner Optimism Moved Higher in April

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that small business owner sentiment moved higher last month. The Small Business Optimism Index rose from 89.5 in March to 92.1 in April, its highest level in six months. As you might expect, an improved sales outlook helped to lift these figures, with the net percentage of respondents expecting higher sales increasing from -4 percent to +4 percent. In addition, small businesses appear to be more willing to increase hiring, as well, with the net percentage planning to hire in the next three months rising from zero in March to 6 percent in April.

This does not mean, however, that small businesses have moved beyond their challenges. Keep in mind that small businesses are said to be growing strongly when the Optimism Index exceeds 100, so we are still quite a way from that. Indeed, the net percentage of business owners saying that the next three months were a “good time to expand” was unchanged at four percent. As with past reports, the top reasons cited for it not being a good time to expand were economic uncertainties and the political climate. (continue reading…)

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NAM Doubles Down on High-Skilled Immigration Reform

As the Senate Judiciary Committee continues to work through debate on S. 744, The NAM, leading a coalition of national and state organizations, sent a letter to Capitol Hill articulating the strong support for provisions in the bill that would deliver significant reforms to the high-skilled immigration program as part of a comprehensive solution.

As the letter notes, “Skilled immigration reform is long overdue. The U.S. economy is struggling to reach its full potential in large part because the demand for highly skilled professionals exceeds the supply; a knowledge gap which will only continue to grow… However, as with any ambitious legislation that would create a new set of requirements for U.S. employers, it is essential to closely examine the new mechanisms proposed for the H-1b and L-1 visa programs and ensure that unintended consequences are anticipated and avoided. Essentially, it should enable U.S. employers to use these visa programs to complement and grow their permanent U.S. workforce, maximizing business and investment activity in the U.S.”

While the NAM and the other organizations are pleased with the initial framework of the bill and have lauded the Gang of 8′s effort to lead on such a critical issue, we are aware that it is not perfect and that improvements are needed. A few specific areas of interest were pointed out, including recruitment, non-displacement and the H-1b Cap Escalator to ensure that comprehensive immigration reform does not interfere with necessary business decisions and that new laws will keep up with the economic times and demand.

Manufacturers are committed to seeing immigration reform through and look forward to working with policymakers to ensure that this landmark bill accomplishes what all interested parties have set out to do – implement a comprehensive solution that provides the workforce manufacturers in the U.S. need to compete and succeed.

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Retail Sales Move Slightly Higher in April

The Census Bureau reported that retail sales rose 0.1 percent in April. The consensus estimate had been for a decline of 0.3 percent. With that said, much of the increase could be explained by more spending on autos, with motor vehicle and parts purchases up 1.0 percent. This continues strong growth in the auto sector, with retail sales up 8.8 percent year-over-year.

Outside of autos, retail sales dropped 0.1 percent. The largest drag on purchasing growth stemmed from gasoline station sales, which dropped 4.7 percent in April. This extends the 3.2 percent loss in March, and year-over-year spending was down 4.6 percent. Lower gasoline prices were the primary factor in reducing the amount. The average price of West Texas intermediate crude oil was $92.02 per barrel in April, down from $95.31 in February and $92.94 in March.

The good news is that when you exclude auto and gasoline station sales, retail purchases rose 0.6 percent, suggesting that there were some broader strengths to report beyond the headlines. Businesses with increased sales in April included building materials (up 1.5 percent), nonstore retailers (up 1.4 percent), clothing and accessories (up 1.2 percent), and general merchandise stores (up 1.0 percent). At the same time, there were declines among food and beverage (down 0.8 percent) and health and personal care (down 0.1 percent) stores.

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

 

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NLRB Website ‘Hanging Tough’ with Poster Rule

Is it possible for an entire federal agency to be in denial? The National Labor Relations Board has been rebuked, rebuffed and reminded by the Courts that its powers are not limitless. Yet, the Board remains curiously silent about the ruling last week that served as a body-blow to an agency that just two years ago was sticking out its chest and poking its proverbial bully-finger at businesses.

The NLRB website still has a page dedicated to an out-of-date poster with no mention of the fact that it has been rejected by the Courts. It’s like returning to your parents’ home and finding they still haven’t torn down the New Kids on the Block poster in your sister’s room. It’s kind of cute, but also a little discomforting. It might be time for the Board to acknowledge its poster idea was ill-conceived and take it down once and for all.

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Monday Economic Report – May 13, 2013

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

In a slow economic news week, the stock market’s ascent became one of the top headlines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) passed 15,000 for the first time, a feat that was even more impressive after the depths of the decline during the financial crisis. The DJIA had previously peaked at 14,164.53 on October 11, 2007, before plummeting to a low of 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009. It has slowly moved higher since then, closing last week at 15,118.49. As impressive as the DJIA records might be, there is also a debate about whether the stock market’s all-time highs are warranted given some of the current economy’s weaknesses. Historically low interest rates have helped to push equity values higher, with Americans looking for more attractive yields for their dollars. Regardless of the debate, rising equity values should help to generate more wealth and consumer optimism, and manufacturers hope this means greater spending.

Retail sales data for April will be released this morning, and the consensus estimate is for spending to be flat. This would be consistent with slower growth in personal spending and the reduction in wholesale sales in March. Moreover, while consumer credit rose 3.4 percent in March, much of the higher figure stemmed from increased student loan borrowing. Auto loans were also higher, but revolving credit lines—which include credit cards—declined for the month and were essentially flat over the past year. This suggests some reluctance to take on more debt to support increased consumer spending, which, to the extent that it means smarter personal finance habits, is perhaps a good thing. (continue reading…)

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Setting the Facts Straight in the Pacific Northwest

Recently the Sierra Club and other environmental groups sent several coal companies and BNSF Railway notice that they intend to file a lawsuit over coal dust from railway cars in the Pacific Northwest. The threat of this frivolous lawsuit only harms our economy and jobs in the Northwest.

Yesterday, The Seattle Times ran an op-ed from Roger McClellan, past chairman of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee and an expert on toxicology and human health-risk analysis, disputing these baseless claims. In the piece McClellan points out that the anecdotal evidence and the opinions of just a handful of people should not be used to sway the public when it comes the transportation of coal, but these decisions should be based on scientific evidence and facts.

Excerpt from the piece:

For starters, claiming that finding a piece of coal on the ground or in the water leads in a direct line to a health or environmental risk violates one of the basic tenets of toxicology and risk assessment — the mere presence of a substance does not indicate harm. There are other factors that need to be taken into account, the main one being exposure.

Just because a piece of coal is found in the water or coal dust is found near a rail track does not mean humans are exposed to it. Coal is not a substance that breaks down easily. Coal is relatively innocuous. Simply moving it by trains or trucks or barges does not equate to a risk to the environment or human health.

Coal continues to play an important role in meeting energy needs around the world, with steady improvements made in its transport and use. Coal has been transported through the Northwest by rail for decades and there has never been any evidence of harm associated with this rail transport.

As McClellan notes coal has been transported for decades through the Northwest by rail and there has never been any evidence associated moving the coal on the railways. Only when debate heated up over the coal export terminals has this become a hot topic for environmental groups. Thousands of jobs are on the line and the decision on the coal export terminals should be based on facts. We must work to reduce our export barriers for valuable exports like coal, not create new ones.

 

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Global Manufacturing Economic Update – May 10, 2013

Here is the summary for this month’s Global Manufacturing Economic Update:

Last week, we learned that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in March. While the headline number might seem positive at first glance, the trade gap shrunk on declining levels of both exports and imports. This report was one of the more disappointing ones of late. After slowing to 5.5 percent growth in 2012, manufactured goods exports have eked out only a 1 percent gain in the first three months of 2013 so far. The data suggest that export sales have essentially stalled. The largest weakness is in the European market, but exports to Canada—our largest trading partner—also declined. Asia and South America saw the largest gains, with manufactured goods exports to China up 9.3 percent during the first three months of this year relative to the same time period last year.

There has been considerable weakness in U.S. manufacturing data during the past few months, with the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) decelerating and manufacturing employment unchanged in April. Regional sentiment surveys have also suggested softness in the sector, with slower sales dragging optimism lower. Domestic policies are fueling weakness in the sector, including higher taxes, tighter government spending and regulatory uncertainties. Nonetheless, our largest trading partners continue to see slower sales, with discouraging export numbers highlighting the slowdown. (continue reading…)

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