Boiler MACT Regs go to OMB for Review

Today several news outlets reported that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has sent the final Boiler MACT regulations over to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for final review. It’s expected that OMB will finish the review in the next few weeks, and the EPA will issue the regulations in the next month or so.

The Boiler MACT regulation will only add to the already cumbersome regulatory burden facing manufacturers of all sizes. These regulations will hurt our ability to compete and stifle job creation. The Council for Industrial Boiler Owners estimates the regs will cost more than $14 billion to implement.

The NAM has been urging the EPA to extend the compliance time for implementation and we hope that EPA will make these changes in the final rule. Manufacturers plan years in advance and the changes that these Boiler MACT regulations call for will require significant time for implementation.

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Business Economists Anticipate Modest Real GDP Growth

Economists with the National Association for Business Outlook expect for real GDP to grow 2.4 percent on average in 2012, with 2.8 percent growth expected next year. This is unchanged from the February survey and reflects an economy that is expanding modestly.

With that said, there were improvements in the forecasts for consumption, housing and vehicle sales. Manufacturing is also expected to fare better, with the median growth in industrial production up 4.1 percent in 2012. This is higher than the 3.5 percent increase anticipated in the previous survey.

In terms of employment, the panelists anticipate 188,000 additional nonfarm payroll jobs on average each month this year. This is slightly above the 170,000 gain predicted in the February survey, with business economists expecting the unemployment rate to fall to 8 percent in the fourth quarter of this year.

There were some areas that we were weaker. Business investment – particularly nonresidential structures and purchases of equipment and software – are expected to grow somewhat slower than what was previously predicted. In addition, the respondents anticipate a wider trade deficit and a slower growth rate for corporate profits.

For the most part, the NABE outlook mirrors those of other economists, including the Federal Reserve. I continue to expect real GDP to grow by 2.5 percent this year, with industrial production up 4 percent.

In other news, the Chicago Federal Reserve’s National Activity Index rose from a revised -0.44 in March to +0.11 in April. Higher industrial production was largely responsible for the positive swing, with activity up 1.1 percent in April, as reported last week. Other contributors to the gain include income and sales, orders, and inventories.

The three-month average for the National Activity Index now stands at -0.06. Numbers around zero suggest that the U.S. economy is growing at its historical trend, so this figure indicates that it is near that goal. More importantly, it indicates that the risk of recession is minimal.   

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

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Dispatch from the Front: The Week of May 21

President Obama wraps up the NATO Summit in Chicago today. He then heads to Joplin, Mo., to deliver the commencement speech for Joplin High School. On Wednesday, he speaks at the Air Force Academy’s commencement ceremony before heading to California for fundraising events. On Thursday, the President will talk about the economy in Newton, Iowa.

The Senate convenes this afternoon to consider the Food and Drug Administration Safety and Innovation Act (S. 3187). The Senate has also set aside an hour to debate a judicial nomination.

The House is out this week.

Senate Hearings: TUESDAY—The Energy and Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing on “Catalyzing American Ingenuity: The Role of Government in Energy Innovation.” The Banking Committee considers derivatives reform. The Armed Services Committee begins a weeklong markup of the defense authorization bill. WEDNESDAY—The Banking Committee holds a hearing on “Reviewing the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue.”

Executive Branch: Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are in Chicago for the G-8 Summit. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano is traveling in Israel and Jordan. Commerce Secretary John Bryson is traveling in France and Germany this week.

Economic Reports: From The New York Times: “Data to be reported this week will include: Existing home sales for April (Tuesday); new home sales for April (Wednesday); durable goods orders for April and weekly unemployment claims (Thursday); and the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May (Friday).”

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Monday Economic Report – May 21, 2012

Below is my Monday Economic Report for the Week of May 21.

Most reports on manufacturing activity last week echoed a familiar theme. The sector remains a bright spot in the U.S. economy. Higher production and new orders helped to lift the Conference Board’s measures of the current and forward-looking indices. While the overall Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.1 percent, this was primarily due to lower housing permits and other factors. Industrial production rose 1.1 percent in April—its fastest pace since December 2010—with motor vehicle activity up significantly. On a year-over-year basis, manufacturing production has risen 6 percent. Mining and utility industries also experienced strong gains for the month, and overall capacity utilization now stands at its highest point since spring 2008. This is encouraging news.

Other data reflected similar sentiments. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York observed manufacturing activity in its region bouncing back in May after a disappointing April, especially among shipments. The housing market appears to be back on track to have a slow but steady improvement in this still-depressed sector. Seasonal variations can explain at least part of the previous month’s decline, with the latest data consistent with the positive numbers seen earlier in the year. These same seasonal adjustments—brought about because of the warmer-than-normal winter—also affected retail sales figures. Building materials sales dropped 1.8 percent, reversing March’s 2.7 percent gain. Overall, though, retail sales continue to grow modestly, with Americans continuing to spend.

Not all of the news last week was good, however. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s survey on manufacturing activity reflected a surprisingly downbeat assessment. Several key indicators showed contractions, including new orders and employment, and respondents were less positive about future production. It remains to be seen if the Philly survey represents an outlier or not; its next survey will be closely watched (much as it was after a similarly disappointing report last August). In other news, it’s looking increasingly likely that Greece might exit the euro, which could have profound consequences on the global economy and increase everyone’s anxiety levels.

This week, the Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City and Richmond will release manufacturing sentiment surveys for their regions. Hopefully, their assessments reflect higher production and new orders, similar to the industrial production and Empire State survey out last week. In addition, new data on durable goods orders will hopefully also show increased activity.

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

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Chevron Seeks Additional Evidence of Corruption in Ecuador Suit

Earlier this week the Wall Street Journal’s Mary Anastasia O’Grady penned an editorial about the current state Chevron’s fight against the corrupt judgment brought against it by an Ecuadorian court in February of last year. Chevron has been waging a battle to prove that the judgment in the case is the result of corruption and the evidence continues to mount.

On May 4th Chevron asked the U.S. federal court in Miami for records of several bank accounts with Banco Pichincha in Ecuador. It’s believed that these Bank records will show that one of the court-appointed independent experts, a geological engineer, was bribed by the plaintiff’s lawyers:

One of Chevron’s allegations is that geological engineer Richard Cabrera, the court-appointed “independent” expert who would assess the rain forest damage, was working secretly for the plaintiffs lawyers. It cites outtakes from the ADC film “Crude” that show the two sides meeting together before his appointment and documents secured through discovery in U.S. courts to support that allegation. Chevron also claims that documents prepared by the plaintiff’s lawyers became part of the Ecuadorean court’s judgment, which it says casts doubt on the court’s neutrality.

Chevron has continued to go to court in the U.S., now more than 20 times to show that fraud was committed in the case and in nine instances U.S. courts have been critical of the Ecuadorean Court proceedings. From the WSJ:

In one instance, addressing Chevron’s claim that the plaintiffs’ representatives “ghostwrote” Mr. Cabrera’s report, the U.S. District Court for the Western District of North Carolina observed that “While this court is unfamiliar with the practices of the Ecuadorian judicial system, the court must believe that the concept of fraud is universal, and that what has blatantly occurred in this matter would in fact be considered fraud by any court. If such conduct does not amount to fraud in a particular country, then that country has larger problems than an oil spill.”

Chevron is continuing to move forward with their RICO suit in the NY Southern District Court against Amazon Defense Coalition, one of the nongovernmental organizations advocating for the plaintiffs in the suit. And it’s becoming more and more clear that this judgment was arrived at with fraud and corruption.

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Congratulations to the Winners of the President’s “E” Awards for Exports

Last week the President’s “E” Awards and “E Start” Awards for Exports were presented to Exporters at a White House ceremony. The awards are presented to person and firms that contribute significantly in the effort to increase U.S. exports as well as recognizing noteworthy export promotion efforts.

Several manufacturers won the President’s “E” Award for Exports including Bio-Microbics, Inc. and Gold Eagle Co. Also, several received the President’s “E Star” Award for Exports which included Zippo Manufacturing Company, French Oil Mill Machinery Co., Kingsbury, Inc. and Rust-Oleum Corporation. We congratulate all of these manufacturers on their efforts to export and to promote exports.

Growing exports is essential to job creation and manufacturing in the U.S. With 95 percent of the world’s consumers living outside of our borders its imperative we continue to undertake efforts to export more U.S. manufactured goods.

The reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank is a good first step as the Bank helps thousands of small and medium-sized manufacturers reach new markets. But we need to do more. We need more trade agreements as well as Congress needs to pass PNTR for Russia. Manufacturers are looking to Washington to help level the playing field for them to compete globally.

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Disappointing Philly Fed, Leading Indicators Data

The two economic indicators released today were disappointing, showing continued weakness even as other data points show some improvements in manufacturing and the overall economy.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve announced a surprisingly downbeat assessment in the May version of its Business Outlook Survey. The composite index fell from 8.5 in April to -5.8 in May. Several components reflect contracting activity, including new orders, inventories, prices received, employment and hours worked. Shipments data were the lone holdout, with a slight uptick in the growth rate.

This increased level of pessimism carried through to the forward-looking indicators as well. Manufacturers in the Philly region expect the growth rate to ease somewhat. The expectations composite index of general business activity plummeted to 15 in May from 33.8 in April. While new orders and shipments expectations remain strong, it is with a little less gusto. Still, only 15 percent of respondents expect new orders to decline in the next six months. (continue reading…)

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Alcoa Groundbreaking of New Aluminum Lithium Facility

Today Alcoa celebrated the groundbreaking of construction for its new $90 million aluminum lithium facility in Lafayette, IN. Alcoa is the world’s leading producer of primary and fabricated aluminum.

The new state-of-the-art facility will be an 115,000 square foot expansion capable of producing more than 20,000 metric tons of aluminum lithium. The new facility will create approximately 75 high-value jobs, with an additional 150 jobs created during the construction.

Alcoa’s decision to invest in a new facility is a perfect example of how manufacturers are leading innovation here in the United States. Manufacturers are driving our economic recovery and it’s great to see manufacturers continue to expand and create new jobs.

What manufacturers need now is more pro-growth policies from Washington that will allow companies to invest in new facilities such as this and employ more workers.  We need more stories like today’s groundbreaking of Alcoa’s new facility. Such projects will ensure that the U.S. remains competitive in the global manufacturing economy.

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Treasury Secretary Geithner to Visit NAM Member Marlin Steel

Today Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will tour NAM member company Marlin Steel Wire in Baltimore and meet with NAM Board Member and President Drew Greenblatt. The Secretary Geithner is expected to discuss President’s “to do list” for Congress which includes his proposed new hire tax credit.

Before touring Marlin Steel Secretary Geithner addressed the Greater Baltimore Committee where he talked about the need for spending cuts and other measures to help the economy.

Manufacturing continues to receive a lot of attention and deservedly so as the sector has been the engine behind our economic recovery creating 481,000 jobs since January 2010. But manufacturers are looking to policy makers like Secretary Geithner to help implement policies which will enable them to continue to grow. Our blueprint to keep manufacturing competitive, A Manufacturing Renaissance: Four Goals for Economic Growth, lays out key policies that Congress and the Administration can enact to keep manufacturing in the United States strong.

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North Carolina Manufacturer Testifies Before House Small Business Committee

Today the House Small Business Committee held a hearing titled “U.S. Trade Strategy: What’s Next for Small Business Exporters?” The first panel of the hearing included testimony from Deputy USTR Miriam Sapiro discussing the status of current trade negotiations and the overall strategy to help small businesses reach new markets.

Also testifying at the hearing was Thermcraft, Inc. President Thomas Crafton from Winston Salem, North Carolina. Mr. Crafton was there to share with the members of the committee some recommendations to help increase exports to create manufacturing jobs.

Thermcraft, Inc. President Thomas Crafton testifies before the House Small Business Committee

Thermcraft, Inc. President Thomas Crafton testifies before the House Small Business Committee.

Mr. Crafton discussed during his testimony the obstacles that Thermcraft still faces when exporting, such as obtaining consistent and reliable information and help from federal government representatives stationed overseas:

On the flipside, we have export issues that arise on a daily basis and continue to be an ongoing struggle. For example, it can be difficult to get consistent and reliable information and help from the local representatives stationed abroad. Commercial Officers seem to see only the big picture and often fail to address the details and help small businesses through the ongoing process of exporting. Regulatory changes are constant, and the burden lies on us to keep up with those changes and decide on classifications for specific products. There is a lack of a single source for info regarding export embargoes. They are listed across multiple websites that take countless hours to research, and it is difficult to know if all requirements have been addressed.

He also mentioned the importance of fee trade agreements and the need to continue to reach new markets for manufacturers as well as the opportunities the Russian market presents: (continue reading…)

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