Economy

Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Fell in November

The Conference Board said that consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell in November. The Consumer Confidence Index was anticipated to build on October’s revised 94.1 reading, which was the highest since October 2007. Instead, the index declined to 88.7 in November, its lowest level since June. This figure has seesawed over the past four months, with the index up in August, down in September and then up and down again in October and November. (continue reading…)

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Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Expanded at a Slower Rate in November

The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity expanded at a slower rate in November. The composite index of general business conditions declined from 20 in October to 4 in November. To be fair, the October figure represented the fastest pace since December 2010, and as such, some pullback might have been expected. The larger story is that manufacturers in the Richmond Fed district have now reported expanding levels of activity for eight straight months, with the headline index averaging 9 over that time frame. This suggests modest growth overall. (continue reading…)

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Real GDP Revised Higher, with Economy Growing 3.9 Percent in the Third Quarter

The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its third quarter real GDP figure higher, with the U.S. economy growing an annualized 3.9 percent. It was originally estimated to have grown by 3.5 percent, and this latest figure exceeded consensus expectations, with economists anticipating a revision down to 3.3 percent. The revision reflected upward revisions for consumer and business spending and on inventory investment. In addition, export growth, while still a positive contributor, added less to real GDP than originally thought. (continue reading…)

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Dallas Fed: Manufacturing Activity Continued to Expand in November

The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturers continued to expand in November. The composite index of general business conditions was unchanged at 10.5 for the month. It has averaged 9.7 over the past nine months, which was progress from the 0.3 index reading in February. As such, we continue to see modest gains among manufacturers in the Kansas City Fed district, with mostly positive expectations about the future. (continue reading…)

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Monday Economic Report – November 24, 2014

Here is the summary for this week’s Monday Economic Report:

Central banks around the world have acted recently in an attempt to lift a sagging global economy. On Friday, for instance, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it has begun purchasing asset-backed securities, finally beginning a quantitative easing program that some have long sought. Earlier in the day, ECB President Mario Draghi said that “we will do what we must” to spur economic growth. In addition, the People’s Bank of China surprised markets by cutting interest rates on Friday. These actions followed the Bank of Japan’s announcement on October 31 that it would increase the amount of its monthly asset purchases. (continue reading…)

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Wisconsin Added the Most Manufacturing Jobs in October

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that Wisconsin created the most net new manufacturing workers in October, hiring 5,400 additional employees for the month. Other states with significant increases in manufacturing employment in October included Pennsylvania (up 2,700), Indiana (up 2,500), Minnesota (up 2,300), Oregon (up 2,200) and South Carolina (up 2,100). Looking over the past 12 months, the five states with the greatest manufacturing employment gains were Indiana (up 24,100), Texas (up 14,900), Ohio (up 13,700), Wisconsin (up 12,100) and Minnesota (up 10,500). (continue reading…)

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Consumer Prices Were Unchanged in October

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that consumer prices were unchanged in October. Over the past 12 months, consumer inflation has risen 1.7 percent. In addition, core prices, which exclude food and energy costs, were up 1.8 percent year-over-year. As such, core inflation continues to remain below the Federal Reserve’s stated goal of 2 percent at the annual rate, which it has now done for 20 consecutive months. Overall, these trends mirror the producer price index data released earlier in the week.

In particular, Americans continue to benefit from falling energy prices, which declined 1.9 percent in October and have dropped in each of the past four months. Since peaking in June, total consumer energy costs have decreased 5.4 percent. Indeed, we have seen the average price of regular gasoline decline from $3.64 a gallon during the week of June 23 to $2.86 a gallon this week, according to the Energy Information Administration. (continue reading…)

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Philly Fed Manufacturers Were Very Positive about Activity in November

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that manufacturing activity expanded very strongly in November, with its composite index measuring an off-the-chart 40.8 for the month. This was up from 20.7 in October, and you would have to go back two decades to find a higher figure (December 1993’s 41.2 reading). In fact, 49.2 percent of respondents to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey said that conditions had improved in November, up from 34.2 percent who said that same thing in October. Along those lines, the Philly Fed survey has registered above average index figures since the first quarter, averaging 23.0 from April to November. That suggests that manufacturers in the district are currently very positive about their businesses. (continue reading…)

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Markit: Chinese and European Economies Stalled in November

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to neutral (50) in November, down from 50.4 in October. This was the weakest reading since Chinese respondents noted contracting levels of activity from January through May. Indeed, output contracted once again (down from 50.7 to 49.5) for the first time since May, which was not a good sign. Hiring (down from 48.9 to 48.4) was also negative for the 13th straight month. On the positive side, new orders (up from 51.2 to 51.4) edged slightly higher, and exports (down from 51.7 to 50.5) continued to expand, albeit at a much slower pace. (continue reading…)

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Housing Trends Remain Positive in October Despite a Slight Drop in Starts

The Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development said that housing data were mixed in October, but the overarching trend line remains positive. New housing starts eased somewhat, down from a revised 1,038,000 annualized units in September to 1,008,000 in October. Yet, housing permits – a proxy of future activity – rose from 1,031,000 to 1,080,000 units. That was the highest level of residential permitting since June 2008, suggesting movement in the right direction. In addition, new starts have also edged higher, up from an average of 955,167 in the first half of 2014 to 1,027,000 in the four months so far in the second half. (continue reading…)

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