Manufacturing Production Rebounded Strongly in June

The Federal Reserve reported that manufacturing production rebounded strongly in June after pulling back in May due to a fire at an auto supplier. Output in the sector increased 0.8 percent in June after falling 1.0 percent in May. So far in 2018, manufacturing production has seesawed from month to month, but up 1.0 percent over that time frame. Over the past 12 months, production in the sector has risen a respectable 1.9 percent, up from 1.7 percent in the previous release. My forecast for 2018 is for manufacturing production to increase 2.2 percent, which would indicate an uptick in output in the second half of this year. Similarly, manufacturing capacity utilization rose from 75.0 percent in May to 75.5 percent in June, which remains not far from April’s rate (75.8 percent), which was the best reading since August 2015.

In June, durable and nondurable goods manufacturing increased 1.6 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. The largest increase came from motor vehicles and parts, which soared by 7.8 percent in June after dropping by 8.6 percent in May. Beyond automotive, other manufacturing sectors with increased production for the month included computer and electronic products (up 1.5 percent), wood products (up 1.2 percent), aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment (up 1.0 percent), fabricated metal products (up 0.9 percent), textile and product mills (up 0.9 percent), machinery (up 0.7 percent) and petroleum and coal products (up 0.6 percent), among others.

In contrast, output declined for apparel and leather (down 3.1 percent), nonmetallic mineral products (down 1.1 percent), furniture and related products (down 0.5 percent), miscellaneous durable goods (down 0.5 percent), plastics and rubber products (down 0.3 percent) and food, beverage and tobacco products (down 0.2 percent).

Meanwhile, total industrial production also recovered in June, up 0.6 percent after declining 0.5 percent in May. Mining output increased 1.2 percent in June, but utilities production fell 1.5 percent. Over the past 12 months, industrial production has risen 3.8 percent, up from 3.2 percent in the prior release and the fastest year-over-year pace since July 2014. Mining and utilities have grown 12.9 percent and 5.0 percent year-over-year, respectively. In addition, capacity utilization ticked up from 77.7 percent to 78.0 percent. That was just shy of the 78.2 percent reading in April, which was the best rate since February 2015.

Chad Moutray

Chad Moutray

Chad Moutray is chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and the Director of the Center for Manufacturing Research for The Manufacturing Institute, where he serves as the NAM’s economic forecaster and spokesperson on economic issues. He frequently comments on current economic conditions for manufacturers through professional presentations and media interviews. He has appeared on Bloomberg, CNBC, C-SPAN, Fox Business and Fox News, among other news outlets.
Chad Moutray

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