Looking for Trends Among the Early Returns

By November 6, 2012General

While only the most obvious of races and states have been called, some interesting subplots are beginning to develop.

A potential trend that has been largely drowned out by the Presidential campaign has been the anti-incumbent sentiment that we’ve seen over the past three election cycles.

In early returns, there are indications those feelings haven’t subsided. In Kentucky 06, Andy Barr is looking strong against Democrat incumbent Rep. Ben Chandler.

As I previously predicted, we may be looking at an extremely large class of freshmen in the 113th Congress. While it’s very early, is there a chance that Andy Barr may be an early member of that incoming group?

Another early trend that appears to have legs is the “War on Coal” effect. Counties in Pennsylvania and West Virginia are reflecting a determined effort by voters to beat back the candidates supportive of overregulation that threatens to put coal plants out of business and deprive the United States of a plentiful source of domestic energy. In a race that has seemed to be overwhelmingly national, this certainly is a prime example of subset economic issues driving local elections.

We are watching three coal counties in Virginia, and they are outperforming for Romney over previous election cycles.

Ned Monroe

Ned Monroe

Senior Vice President at National Association of Manufacturers
Ned Monroe is senior vice president of external relations for the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM). Mr. Monroe oversees public affairs activities including grassroots engagement, issue advocacy and election programs. His team also handles NAM’s allied organizations, affiliated state associations and meetings management. The NAM is the nation's largest industrial trade association, representing more than 14,000 manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Our mission is to be the voice of all manufacturing in the United States and inform policymakers about manufacturing's vital role in the U.S. economy.
Ned Monroe

Leave a Reply