While only the most obvious of races and states have been called, some interesting subplots are beginning to develop.
A potential trend that has been largely drowned out by the Presidential campaign has been the anti-incumbent sentiment that we’ve seen over the past three election cycles.
In early returns, there are indications those feelings haven’t subsided. In Kentucky 06, Andy Barr is looking strong against Democrat incumbent Rep. Ben Chandler.
As I previously predicted, we may be looking at an extremely large class of freshmen in the 113th Congress. While it’s very early, is there a chance that Andy Barr may be an early member of that incoming group?
Another early trend that appears to have legs is the “War on Coal” effect. Counties in Pennsylvania and West Virginia are reflecting a determined effort by voters to beat back the candidates supportive of overregulation that threatens to put coal plants out of business and deprive the United States of a plentiful source of domestic energy. In a race that has seemed to be overwhelmingly national, this certainly is a prime example of subset economic issues driving local elections.
We are watching three coal counties in Virginia, and they are outperforming for Romney over previous election cycles.