From Kiplinger Forecasts, “Manufacturing’s Share of GDP Will Recover and Hold Steady“:
Will U.S. manufacturing ever come back? Output, yes, will regain its previous highs. Jobs won’t. Many of them are gone for good.
It’ll be 2012 before production recovers, clawing its way back to prerecession levels. Next year will see a modest gain of 2%, then pick up speed in 2011. But this year’s jaw-dropping 12% decline, on top of a dip of 3% in 2008, spells a contraction considerably worse than in the recessions of 1980-1982 and 1974-1975.
About 66% of the 2 million jobs lost since January 2008 will return by 2013 in the manufacturing sector. For the rest, largely in automaking or industries tied to either autos or housing, such as textiles, plastics, fabricated metals, furniture, appliances and so on, the recession was simply the last, fatal squeeze in a long wringing out process.
Kiplinger identifies the following industries as leading the way back: medical equipment and defense electronics, satellites, some advanced machinery, biotechnology, Internet routing equipment, etc.
Medical devices? Really? That’s one of the trial lawyer industry’s top targets. Litigation is major impediment to the medical device industry leading the United States out of the recession.
(Hat tip: Pat Cleary.)
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