The Dollar, Exports, Manufacturing: Near Equilibrium

By October 23, 2008Economy, Trade

On CNBC today, the NAM’s Pat Mears discussed the possible effect of the recently rising dollar on U.S. manufacturing exports, which have done much to keep the economy afloat over the past year.


In terms of the dollar value, we think that, although we certainly were more competitive a few months ago, that was probably an overshoot of things. If you just look at the Euro, when we reconstruct the currencies that are part of the Euro, we calculate that the equilibrium level of the Euro is about a dollar to $1.25.

So basically we are still very competitive and probably will remain competitive. I don’t see us going back to the days of 87 cents to the Euro. We’re looking for continued strong export growth. January to August of this year exports were up 16 percent over last year, so they really are the bright spot in the economy. We want to make sure that advantage is maintained.

Currency hedging was the other focus of the segment hosted by CNBC’s Erin Burnett, which also featured Andrew Busch, BMO Capital Markets. The video is here.

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