The Steep Costs of Lieberman-Warner

By March 13, 2008Global Warming

The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and the American Council for Capital Formation released a new report today analyzing the costs of implementing S. 2191, the Lieberman-Warner global warming bill, the leading legislative proposal to limit carbon dioxide emissions through a cap-and-trade system. Key findings, among many, from the study conducted by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC).

Impact on Jobs
Under L/W, the United States would lose between 1.2 and 1.8 million jobs in 2020 and between 3 and 4 million jobs in 2030. The primary cause of job losses would be lower industrial output due to higher energy prices, the high cost of complying with required emissions cuts, and
greater competition from overseas manufacturers with lower energy costs.

Impact on Disposable Household Income
Higher energy prices would have ripple impacts on prices throughout the economy and would impose a financial cost of $739 to $2,927 per year by 2020 on national households, rising to $4,022 to $6,752 by 2030.

L/W’s Impact on Energy Prices
Most energy prices would rise under L/W, particularly, coal, oil, and natural gas. The price of gasoline would increase between 60% and 144% by 2030, while electricity prices would increase by 77% to 129%. Table 1 shows the increase in gasoline and electricity prices faced by US households. US consumers would pay between 84% and 146% more for their natural gas by 2030.

NAM’s president, John Engler, and the chief economist from ACCF, Margo Thorning, briefed the media and bloggers on the report.

  • Powerpoint presentation that accompanied the briefing.
  • Two-page summary of national results.
  • The full study, including state-by-state tables.
  • And…an .mp3 file of the Engler/Thorning briefing to public policy/state think tank bloggers. Click here.

    UPDATE (4:05 p.m.): Engler: If a cap-and-trade measure passes, “we will be committing what I call economic disarmament because we will drive US jobs offshore and at the same time trade relatively clean production in this country for dirtier production offshore, so you end up with job losses and a worse environment”. Reported at ICIS News.

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